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DENVER — The Nuggets are currently operating a bottom-10 offense scoring just 97.7 points per 100 possessions, and a large reason for their inefficient shot-making is the league-leading 18.1 turnovers per game Denver averages.
At the head of that issue is second-year point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, who’s averaging the most turnovers of starting point guards in the league per 100 possessions, while also using a team-high 28.4 percent of Denver’s offensive possessions when he’s on the floor – two factors that at this point are not and will not lead to an efficient offense if current trends continue.
It’s an issue that coach Michael Malone is growing frustrated with, as apparent by comments he’s made after each of Denver’s last two games, losses at home to Detroit and on the road in Portland.
“Same old story, we outscore them 74-70 quarters two, three and four, but you spot them a 15-point lead in the first quarter and we flew the ball all over the gym,” Malone said after the Nuggets turned the ball over seven times in the first quarter against Detroit Saturday leading to 13 Pistons points. “Our turnovers are an epidemic and can’t have our starting point guard averaging five turnovers per game, it’s killing us right now.”
Then, after the Nuggets dropped another game to Portland Sunday, Malone spoke on Mudiay’s inefficiencies again.
“I think he has to make plays for others,” Malone said after the 20-year-old’s 3-16 night shooting, zero assist night. “He got 16 shots up and zero assists. When you’re our starting point guard we need you to run the offense, get guys involved I’m sure they keyed in on him a little bit, but when your shots not falling you have to find other ways to impact the game.”
“Make the simple play”
Mudiay’s turnover troubles, which were a widely known flaw of the point guard’s dating back to last season, have not fixed themselves year two. He’s averaging more turnovers per game this year than last (4.6 to 3.2) despite only playing less than a minute more per game this season than during his rookie year.
“Value the ball, make the simple play,” Malone said of his team’s turnovers. “We showed an edit today of our good offense and making the simple play and not trying to overdo it or do too many things. And right now, it’s come, one, we’re last in the league in turnovers, alright. It is what it is, we’re last in the league in turnovers, we don’t value the ball, we just throw it around we have no regard for the basketball.”
During Denver’s recent homestand, Mudiay frequently cited the Nuggets’ “bad spacing,” and that Denver was “kind of crowded,” on offense which was a real issue when playing Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic together. Yet, Denver went away from that frontcourt against Detroit Saturday and Mudiay still had handed out five turnovers that had nothing to do with the Nuggets’ spacing.
Most of Mudiay’s turnovers are self-inflicted. He’s getting into the lane and leaving his feet, jetting into the lane with no pre-mediated idea of what he wants to do and trying to force the issue. Many of Mudiay’s turnovers come down to him “trying to do too much” and “not making the simple play,” two direct quotes from Malone on how the Nuggets can cure their high turnover numbers.
Mudiay’s best skill is his ability to get into the lane, whether that’s by using a screen or in transition and finding his teammates at the 3-point line or in the paint. If he can simplify his game, his turnover numbers will drop.
The second-year point guard’s turnovers aren’t dependent on the lineups he’s playing with or the offense Denver is running. But, one in four of the Nuggets turnovers are from Mudiay. It’s an issue he’ll have to clean up in Denver wants to taste the postseason in Malone’s second year on the job.
How aggressive it too aggressive?
From the second he stepped on the court in a Nuggets uniform, Mudiay has never been shy when looking for his shot.
As a 19-year-old rookie, Mudiay averaged the third-most field goal attempts per game in his draft class behind just Jahlil Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns. He took all those attempts despite shooting the second-worst percentage of 2015 draftees from the field at 36.4 percent behind just Rashad Vaughn.
During his rookie year, the aggressiveness was a good attribute. Mudiay wasn’t scared of NBA competition, willing to barrel down the lane into contact. The low shooting percentages and high turnovers were concerning but expected to improve in year two, which that hasn’t happened.
Mudiay went 3-16 from the field against Portland, still taking low percentage shots, early in the shot clock, tightly guarded.
Mudiay’s looking for his shot too often. If he continues to shoot below 40 percent from the field he can’t be attempting the most shots night in and night out across Denver’s roster. Currently, he’s two attempting two more field goals per game than Wilson Chandler and roughly three more per game than Danilo Gallinari.
His outlook may not be as bleak as it seems though. Mudiay is still 20-years-old, is 78 NBA games plus ten games in China removed from high school and it’s quick to forget how other rookie point guards struggled with turnovers and inefficient shooting numbers like Russell Westbrook and John Wall did when they entered the league.
Maybe Mudiay’s usage drops when ball-dominant Will Barton re-enters Denver’s lineup in late-November or early December. However, Barton’s role on the second unit doesn’t lead him to sharing the floor with Mudiay often. Or perhaps Mudiay shares the court more with Jameer Nelson, taking some of the pressure off the point guard.
An efficient scorer or not, Denver won’t give up on Mudiay this year but it’s hard envisioning them making the playoffs this season without Mudiay upping his game significantly. The good news is Mudiay’s issues are not codependent and are correctable.
Slow down and relax on offense, operate as much as possibly in the pick-and-roll, but be unselfish in the halfcourt, and look to get your teammates involved whenever you can. If he takes those initiatives, Mudiay can build off his rookie year, put these early-season worries behind him and focus on navigating these remaining 72 games as Denver’s point guard.