Mason’s Mailbag: What will it take for the Broncos to be competitive again?

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In your opinion what would it take to make the Broncos competitive in our division again?

— Travis Miller (@TraviswMiller94) November 2, 2019

It starts with the quarterback.

While you can’t win a Super Bowl with a bad defense, you don’t need an elite one to win it, either. It just needs to be at least average in key areas — which in today’s game, center around pass defense more than stopping the run. But the better your defense is, the more you can live with mistakes on offense — as long as the quarterback is capable of delivering when it matters most.

The quarterback is the single biggest part of the equation here, and if they don’t find a reliable and potentially elite (with time and development) starter among their young corps of Brandon Allen, Drew Lock and Brett Rypien, they will be back in the draft market again.

That also creates an opportunity.

Consider this: The 2020 NFL Draft could be one of the final two that includes cost-controlled draft picks — they’re basically slotted salary-wise, for all intents and purposes — and the fifth-year option for first-round choices. A new collective bargaining agreement for the 2021 season and beyond could eliminate these aspects of the draft. So with potential changes looming, along with the expected bounty of quarterback prospects, the time to strike is now.

And if the Broncos find a young franchise quarterback either from their current collection or the 2020 draft, they can then spend heavily in free agency on other positions. They could build off the defense’s recent renaissance by re-signing Justin Simmons and Chris Harris Jr., while still having plenty left over to bolster the offensive line.

If the Broncos get the right cost-controlled quarterback in place, their success equation from 2020 through 2023 could look like that of Seattle from 2012-15, which went to two Super Bowls and made two other playoff appearances with Russell Wilson on a rookie contract, allowing them to spend heavily on their dominant defense.

Despite the Broncos’ 2-6 start, they have also gathered more young players who can be useful contributors as this team works its way out of the muck: cornerback Devontae Harris, linebacker Alexander Johnson, nose tackle Mike Purcell and, yes, tight end Noah Fant. (Give Fant’s development two years because of the typical learning curve at the position.) Phillip Lindsay, Royce Freeman, Andy Janovich, Dalton Risner, Courtland Sutton, Kareem Jackson, Von Miller and the injured Bradley Chubb all appear to be core components. Derek Wolfe and Connor McGovern could be that way, too, if the Broncos re-sign them.

Still, it’s all about the quarterback.

Find one, and with this defense and further free-agent and draft investment in offensive linemen like Risner, contention will await.

But if you mean contention this year … well … don’t count on it.

It involves injuries and unexpected defeats for the Broncos’ AFC West rivals, along with Brandon Allen becoming the biggest sixth-round quarterbacking revelation since Tom Brady.

If Herbert Falls To Us In The Upcoming Draft Or Possibly Trade Up To Get Him. I’m Thinking Building Denver Qb’s Up Old-school Style Two Young Capable Starters Like Back In The Day With Elway & Kubiak. I Think It Would Work In Our Favor Again Herbert Being Elway Lock Being Kubiak?

— The Original Dizzy-D (@The_Original_) November 2, 2019

It’s an interesting take, but remember, the Broncos drafted Gary Kubiak in the eighth round of the 1983 draft. It was a mild upset that he made the team — and he did so as the No. 3 quarterback at the time, behind Elway and veteran Steve DeBerg.

That said, if a second-round pick like Lock ends up being a career backup, one would have to regard his career as a disappointment, right?

With all those draft picks what’s the over under of total draft picks made? With Elway I would put the line at 6. I would take them all but John most likely will not.

— Chris Stone (@badstonevader) November 2, 2019

This is a phenomenal question, in light of the Broncos’ penchant for draft-pick trades. During Elway’s nine drafts, the Broncos have made 70 selections. Thirty-seven of these were picks that originally belonged to them; 33 were acquired via trade. The Broncos have already made eight trades involving draft picks in 2019, beginning with the Joe Flacco deal.

Now consider that the Broncos have nine picks (including seven in the first four rounds) — and could gain another two or three Day 3 picks from the compensatory-pick pool. So that is 11 or 12 picks. I expect the Broncos would end up with eight or nine players after trades, in part because I expect some of the third- and fourth-round capital (five picks in total) to be used as part of at least one trade up, and also because the Broncos’ roster remains shallow enough to where they would expect nearly all of an eight- or nine-man draft class to make the 53-man roster.

Are the Broncos in the worst shape in the league considering their record, their QB situation, their ownership situation, and (blasphemy I know) their John Elway situation?

— steve jones (@beersnob80) November 2, 2019

As long as Daniel Snyder owns the franchise in Washington, the answer is a firm no — no matter how bad things get in Denver. This week, we saw another potential manifestation of that organization’s complete ineptitude, as Trent Williams alleged that they failed to properly diagnose and treat a growth on his skull that turned out to be cancerous. Nine years ago, the Washington City Paper published a voluminous screed detailing all the ways in which Snyder’s Redskins had run afoul of good business practices, common decency and general competence.

Snyder’s Redskins could screw up a peanut-butter-and-jelly sandwich.

That said, they are also a cautionary tale. Thirty years ago, you could say that the fervency of Washington’s fan base made the Redskins the Broncos of the Eastern Seaboard. (Or perhaps you could say that the Broncos were the Redskins of the West, depending on your perspective.) Over time, that passion faded, mostly because of the poor management of the Snyder regime. Now the Redskins might not even be the No. 2 team in their own market; the Capitals and Nationals appear to have taken the top two spots in the DMV. Empty seats abound at FedExField. A once passionate game-day atmosphere now oozes apathy.

You might not think it can happen here. But it can … if the Broncos are not careful.