Mason's Mailbag: How many games will the Broncos win the rest of the season?

To send questions, leave them in the comments section below or tweet them to me @MaseDenver with the #AskMase!

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Ok Mase – looking at the remaining games on the schedule will the Broncos win 3 games? 2?

— MBaker

More than that. I think the Broncos win at least six games.

Win No. 1: Sunday. I’m picking the Broncos to win 20-10, and I’m sticking to it. I expect regression to the mean on sacks and takeaways, and I think a Jaguars turnover will lead to a short field which allows the team to nudge to 20 points and end that seven-game sub-20 streak.

Win No. 2: Week 6, against the Titans. Tennessee’s power-based offense can cause problems, and with Taylor Lewan set to be back in the lineup at left tackle by then, Marcus Mariota’s malfunctioning pass-rush clock won’t be a part of as many sacks as was the case for him against the Jaguars in Week 3. But the Titans’ overall lack of firepower will prevent them from exploiting the continued absence of Bryce Callahan at cornerback, and the Broncos should eke out a win with the score in the teens.

Win No. 3: Week 9, against Cleveland. Cleveland has plenty of offensive punch, but Baker Mayfield is enduring a growing-pains season

Win No. 4: Week 13, against the Los Angeles Chargers. I’ve predicted a season series split with the Chargers since the schedule was released, and I’m sticking with it.

Wins No. 5 and 6: Weeks 16 and 17 against the Lions and Raiders. Whether the Broncos are giving Drew Lock some of his first starts or still playing Joe Flacco, I expect the defense will be improved as Fangio schemes around the skill sets of his players and the players adapt to what he’s doing.

Whether there are more wins depends on improvement from the offensive line, injuries and trades (if any).

The last 10 QBs taken with top10 picks are:

Mahomes
Wentz
Goff
Mayfield
Murray
Allen
Darnold
DJones
Trubisky
Rosen

Imagine we put each name on a marble and put them in a bag.

What would you pay in players and draft assets to pull the name of the Broncos’ new QB from that bag?

— The Fantasy Goofballer (@TGoofballer) September 28, 2019

Let’s start by breaking these 10 into three tiers:

• Tier 1: Three quarterbacks who have already proven that they can play at an above-average-to-great level: Patrick Mahomes, Carson Wentz and Jared Goff.
• Tier two: Quarterbacks with enough of a body of work to where you know they can be at least solid starters: Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold and Mitchell Trubisky. Even if they don’t blossom into elite quarterbacks, you can win with them if they have enough of a supporting cast, as we have seen with Trubisky and are witnessing with Allen.
• Then you have the still-unknown commodities: Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones and Josh Rosen. Rosen looks like a quarterback who possesses plenty of potential in a functional situation, which he has yet to experience in two seasons as a pro.

For Mahomes, Wentz and Goff, the asking price starts at three first-round picks plus a prominent, Pro Bowl-caliber player. Mahomes is probably worth six first-rounders. (No, I am not exaggerating for effect.) Miami got Rosen for second- and fifth-round picks.

If you take those extremes and split the difference, you have what I would give up for one marble grabbed from a bag: two first-round picks and a second-round selection or a Pro Bowl-caliber starter at a position that is not one of the core four spots (quarterback, offensive tackle, edge rusher and cornerback).

Is Derek Carr the most overrated QB in the league? He’s failed to produce more than 17 points in 19 of his last 32 games, and failed to produce more than 10 in 11 of those 19. #askmase

— Ted (@GearsofTed) September 28, 2019

This is probably more of a question of semantics than anything else. “Overrated” would mean that he is perceived as better than he is. I don’t detect any consensus that he is better than somewhere in the middle tier of starting quarterbacks, which is what he is. Were he perceived as an elite or even above-average starter, then, yes, he would be overrated.

What is interesting, of course, is that the Raiders offense has failed to generate more than 17 points far more often than not in recent years. Yet four of the 13 games the Raiders surpassed 17 points in his last 32 games came against the Broncos. So what does that say about the orange and blue?

Last year's draft was widely known for being very deep for defensive talent. What positions look deep for the is the 2020 draft?

— ArtistDominic (@ArtistDominic) September 28, 2019

It is shaping up as a phenomenal year for offensive linemen. If the Broncos keep their complement of Day 1 and Day 2 picks, they could fill two spots on the offensive line with immediate starters. Quarterback is above average — not four-picks-in-the-top-10 good, as it was in 2018, but with at least three prospects who start by midway through their rookie seasons, depending on who opts to turn pro. The inside-linebacker class looks better on Day 2 and into early Day 3 than Day 1, and is worth monitoring.

If the Broncos finally used the "R" word, who would be prime trade candidates and what could the Broncos expect to receive for them?

— Albukirky 🍉 (@albukirky) September 28, 2019

You’d start with veteran players who can step in and help a new club immediately, particularly those with expiring contracts or easy outs re: dead money in the coming year. That’s why so much radio/podcast chatter centers around Emmanuel Sanders and Chris Harris Jr. But no matter who the Broncos trade — if they do opt to explore that avenue — do not expect more than third-round picks — or if you’re extremely fortunate, second-round selections. Players who can expect to get big contracts in free agency next spring will likely net a third-round compensatory pick anyway, so that is the standard a team should look to exceed for high-level players if they make them available on the trade market.

Can Brandon Mcmanus’ mustache powers cancel out Garder Minshew’s mustache powers? #AskMase

— MileHighBroncosGuy (@MileHighGOAT) September 28, 2019

Only if McManus wears the Freddie Mercury “Flash Gordon” shirt to complete the look.

Is Gardner Minshew the long lost son of Uncle Rico? #AskMase pic.twitter.com/yfyGW0c7A2

— BRONCOTIZ (@broncotiz) September 27, 2019

Can there be any doubt? To top off the connection, both once called the inland Pacific Northwest home, although Preston, Idaho is still a long way from Pullman, Washington.

https://twitter.com/KristalAlfonso/status/1177419649581027329?s=20

If I give any answer other than Eastern North Carolina, I will be betraying generations of Masons, including a cousin who spent his life running a barbecue restaurant outside of Youngsville, a hamlet of just under 1,300 residents just off U.S. 1 in Franklin County. That said, I’m a purist. I’ll put it on a bun, but without slaw. The slaw must be sweet, crisp and served on the side. A carb-heavy meal with the pork on the bun and hushpuppies on the side is perfectly acceptable. If you’ve skipped breakfast or lunch, you also need a cup of Brunswick Stew on the side. Throw in a spoonful of lima beans or some fried okra and you’re good to go. Cobbler for dessert to finish off the meal strong.