The numbers point to three safe picks, our NFL Week 11 picks

For those of you who don’t care how we come to our predictions, you will find the picks at the top of these posts for the rest of the season. The explanations for them are below. Enjoy!

The BSN picks of the week:

Tennessee Titans +3 at Indianapolis Colts

Buffalo Bills +3 at Cincinnati Bengals

Washington Redskins -2.5 vs. Green Bay Packers

By now you should all know the drill. It’s time to buckle up for Week 11 of the NFL season and after a positive week for both our metrics we feel good about things moving forward.

We’re looking at the usual YPP spreads and offering you three picks for you based on those numbers plus a little bonus break down below. Below you’ll also see an EW pick of the week as well since those updated figures fared very well last week.

Without further ado, here’s how it all breaks down for you.

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BSN ATS’ picks of the week

Tennessee Titans +3

The Titans won big for us last week and have continued to show encouraging progress throughout the season. Their young offense has been very impressive as of late, posting 6.1 yards per play on average, good for the fifth-best offensive YPP total in the NFL. They’re currently ninth in the league for total YPP after last week’s mauling of the Packers.

Indianapolis has improved its standings slightly in YPP as they’re no longer dead last now that the San Francisco 49ers have taken firm control of that position (with a -1.1 YPP, yuk!). That’s not to say the Colts have climbed by much as their -0.8 YPP total is tied for second last with the Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Indy’s offense is 22nd in the NFL and the defense 30th.

So, even with the Colts playing at home, YPP has Tennessee -3. The first stat to look at here is what Chuck Pagano’s group is doing against the run where their defense is 22nd in the NFL allowing 114 yards per game. A weakness that Tennessee should feast on with their third-ranked rushing attack that’s averaging 146 yards a contest.

Indianapolis keeps getting respect from Vegas as they still seem to find ways to beat their divisional opponents but this Titans team seems different. They’re growing before our eyes as an array of talented early-round picks are starting to blossom into real talents.

We expect the road dogs to be much better than they were earlier in the year when Indianapolis won 34-26. Give us the flying Hawaiian and his crew.

Washington Redskins -2.5

This is the Sunday night game of the week and is an interesting matchup of the 5-3-1 Skins vs the struggling 4-5 Packers. We watched Green Bay closely last week as we picked against them in Tennessee and they looked even worse than expected.

The offense is simply not there and Aaron Rodgers can’t overcome the several limitations of the attack. While the defense finally broke last week, as the NFL’s (now former) top-ranked run defense got gashed to the tune of 47 points.

Washington is a team we haven’t talked about all that much but their continued success has made the stats take notice. Both metrics are in agreement here that 2.5 isn’t enough for this hot Redskins team. Washington has lost only one game (to the Lions by a field goal) in their last seven to go along with one tie.

On the other hand, Green Bay has lost their last three and are 4-4 against the spread on the year, yet they continue to get respect even though two of their opponents, the Colts and Titans, aren’t exactly world beaters (certainly not according to the line makers).

Kirk Cousins and the offense is getting it done for D.C.’s team as they’re second in offensive YPP (eight overall) and are the third-ranked passing attack in the league and a top 15 rushing offense. We’re guessing a Packers defense that was just torn to smithereens will suffer, again, against this group and their limited offense won’t be able to keep the pace.

Give us Washington to win big in this one with the YPP spread set at -7.5.

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Our EW pick of the week

Buffalo Bills +3

Our updated EW spreads did quite well in Week 10, going 6-and-2 with differentials over 3 last week and 3-0 with differentials over 5 points. This week there are two spreads with differentials over 5 points in our EW metric. Though YPP in disagreement we’re going to pick one of these.

These two games are the Philadelphia Eagles +6.5 at Seattle Seahawks and the Buffalo Bills +3 at Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals and Bills is a particularly interesting one. At the surface, these are both teams that have played tough and have been in exclusively close games. So in an even match giving the home team 3 points makes sense. But considering the two teams records the line might be generous for the Bengals. Seeing how well Buffalo does coming off of a bye will be worth monitoring.

The Bills have just been better and it’s do or die time for Cincinnati. Give us the Bills who EW has a -2 in this one, despite playing on the road.

The Eagles are the other team and they’re a strange case. EW thinks they’re much better than what YPP reflects -where they’re only 17th with a negative differential of -0.1. Then again Seattle never wins big. Their margin of victory in their six W’s is 6 points. When you take away two double-digit wins against the lowly New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers that margin is only 4.2. So even though YPP isn’t convinced of this unpredictable Philly squad the 6.5 point spread sure seems appealing.

Worth watching both those games. But we like the Bills in Cincy as our EW pick of the week.

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Numbers, news, and notes

One note on the week as you sift through the lines, the Monday night bout is being played in Mexico City so that’s a neutral site game. Travel and altitude will be a factor in that one.

Another note worht mentioning the LA Rams are going to be making a change at quarterback, as we’ll get to see the first overall pick Jared Goff make his NFL debut.

Below as always you’ll find our usual suggested spreads for YPP and EW lined up side by side for all your Week 11 gambling needs.