Making sense of the avalanche of changes in Colorado

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Well, that was definitely something.

When Joe Sakic held his postseason press conference and promised a more “aggressive” approach in free agency than previous years, we all interpreted that to mean they’d go after the big names in free agency.

They certainly did that…and a whole lot more.

Instead of looking at their current roster and using the fourth pick on a player who fills a need there, the Avs stuck to their guns and took Bowen Byram despite an already stacked defense. That addition gave them options that would be key just 10 days later.

Even during their failed pursuit of Artemi Panarin, they began shaking up the roster. Carl Soderberg, their fourth-highest scoring forward last season, was shipped to Arizona for a draft pick and a depth defenseman. That draft pick lasted mere days in Colorado’s possession before it was sent to Washington for Andre Burakovsky, the first NHL addition of the offseason.

Then came the opening of free agency and they used the “if you can’t beat ’em, sign their free agents” tactic by quickly signing away Joonas Donskoi from San Jose. Pierre-Edouard Bellemare was added soon after and the Avs brought back one of their own in re-signing Colin Wilson to a one-year deal.

It was a flurry of activity that saw three forwards added to a young group that already was pretty full.

Then came the bombshell – Tyson Barrie and Alexander Kerfoot traded to Toronto in exchange for Nazem Kadri and Calle Rosen.

The crater left behind in the Avs lineup was the removal of 150 points from last year’s lineup. Colorado’s top line remained intact but in search of secondary scoring, they traded away scorers four through six on their roster.

The highest-scoring player from last year’s team outside of the top line was suddenly J.T. Compher, whose 32 points was encouraging but certainly nothing spectacular.

The free-agent signings left the roster feeling kind of incomplete like something was missing. The Kadri trade changed all of that. Suddenly, the roster had been completely reshaped.

But a question lingered after all the dust had settled: Are the Avalanche any better?

Right now, I honestly don’t know. It feels like a roster built upon a heavy dose of optimism. Now, every team does this but the Avalanche especially feel like they’re banking on a lot of unanswered questions going their way.

• Philipp Grubauer failed to prove last year he could be a full-time starter, despite the strong finish to the season
• His backup, Pavel Francouz, has two relief appearances in the NHL in his career.
• Donskoi’s 37 points last season are the highest any of Colorado’s forwards not on the top line (except Kadri) has scored since Andre Burakovsky’s 38-point season in 2015-16.
• Colin Wilson’s 42-point season in 2014-15 is the ONLY 40-point season among any of the players not on the top line (except Kadri).
• Removing Barrie leaves an enormous hole in defensive scoring. Colorado’s defensemen combined for 497 games played and 156 points last year. Barrie’s 59 points were 37.8% of the Avs’ scoring from the blue line.
• Obviously, Cale Makar is here now and his 10 playoff games provide optimism but it’s still a big ask for him to replace Barrie. Only 10 defensemen in the last 10 years have scored 40 or more points in their rookie seasons.
• Even if Bowen Byram makes the team, only five defensemen in the last 10 years have produced even 20-point seasons in their rookie seasons immediately after being drafted.
• Speaking of defense, Ian Cole is out until at least December as he recovers from hip surgery and Erik Johnson “could” be ready for the start of the season after shoulder surgery. Come on down, Kevin Connauton?
• Asking for career years from Burakovsky, Compher, Donskoi, Tyson Jost, and Sam Girard (among others) is a heavy ask. That’s rolling the dice.

And somehow despite all of that, it doesn’t seem entirely unreasonable for it to break Colorado’s way.

• Jost and Girard are just 21 and have shown enough flashes that believing they’re capable of breaking out offensively is absolutely possible, if not even likely.
• Cale Makar is a special player and you don’t count out special players. Ever.
• Kadri’s presence is really emphasized in the list above because he’s a rock on their second line, something Colorado hasn’t had since before the 48-point season in 2016-17.
• Burakovsky and Donskoi are both players with very strong underlying numbers and metrics that suggest more ice time could mean a major boost in production. Burakovsky, especially, has the kind of shooting talent where if he’s able to generate 180 shots on goal, he could be a 20-goal scorer for the Avs.
• The forward corps is significantly deeper than last season, even if it’s not necessarily “better.” The projected fourth line (Nieto, Calvert, Bellemare) combined for 64 points last season. Last year’s fourth line regulars (Bourque, Andrighetto, Dries) combined for 31 points.
• Obviously, a cut in ice time for Nieto and Calvert likely means reduced production but even if they only get 15 points out of each of them, that’s still a 14-point leap over last year’s offensive black hole of a group.
• It’s not quantifiable via numbers but the Avalanche are without a doubt a heavier, harder team to play against with the additions of Kadri, Bellemare, and Donskoi. Those three are going to help change their identity from “fast but soft” to “fast and obnoxious”.

Every team faces questions going into a new season. Unexpected things happen every year for every squad. The more I look at it, the more I appreciate what Joe Sakic did in the last two weeks.

He could have sat back and believed his group to be fine having made the second round and pushed San Jose to Game 7. It would’ve been justifiable for him to lean on internal growth and see what the defense with Barrie looked like across 82 games.

Instead, he chased Panarin. He even contacted Carolina about Sebastian Aho’s availability. He struck out on the big fish so he used the biggest bait he had to catch one of the league’s best second-line centers on a great contract.

Sakic lived up to his word and was aggressive in addressing his team’s needs but did the Avalanche get better?

Definitely. Maybe.