Make the Case: The Broncos will have a top-10 scoring defense

Will the Broncos have a top-10 scoring defense in 2023?

That is the question.

This is the debate.

The Situation

Ever since Denver’s Super Bowl 50 defense established themselves as one of the best defenses ever, the Broncos have been led by their defense, not offense, over the past eight seasons. In fact, since the start of the 2015 season, the Broncos have had a top-10 scoring defense in four seasons and a top-five defense three times.

While Denver’s defense fell off statistically at the end of the 2022 season, finishing as the 14th-best scoring defense in the NFL, just the year before they finished as the third-best defense.

From a personnel standpoint, many players from that dominant defense remain, including Pat Surtain II, Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson. But there are many new faces over the last 14 months too, led by Zach Allen, D.J. Jones, Alex Singleton and Randy Gregory, to name a few. Also, Vance Joseph is back, this time just as the defensive coordinator.

Can the Broncos remain an elite defense this year under offensive-minded head coach Sean Payton?

The Cases

The Broncos WILL have a top-10 scoring defense — Henry

The raw stats might not back this up, but the Broncos’ defense was once again pretty great in 2022. Denver finished 14th in points allowed and seventh in yards allowed, which is a fall from their rankings of third and eighth in 2021.

But the difference wasn’t the defense’s fault, for the most part.

The 2022 Broncos gave up 1.77 points per drive, the seventh-best mark in the NFL. It was an improvement over the prior season by one one-hundredth of a point. They allowed 28.3 yards per drive, which was the fourth best mark in the league.

So why did the total stats paint an ugly picture? Because the offense couldn’t stay on the field, with the third-worst time of possession per drive in the NFL. That meant they put their defense back out there quicker almost any other offense in the league.

And chewing up the clock has never been an issue for Sean Payton offenses.

In nine of his 15 seasons as head coach of the Saints, his offense finished in the top 10 in time of possession per drive. His only finish outside the top 15 was his final season, which came after Drew Brees’ retirement.

And it’s easy to see Payton’s fingerprints on those numbers. In 2010, his offense was second in clock chewed per possession. In 2011 and 2013, it finished third. But in 2012, the season Payton was suspended for, the Saints’ offense finished 25th.

The point is, an improved offense will put the Broncos’ defense in better situations. They won’t be on the field for 192 defensive drives, which only trailed the Cowboys’ 193.

Plus, Football Outsiders’ DVOA graded the Broncos out as the worst defense in the NFL when facing a two-score deficit, and second place wasn’t anywhere near as bad. Meanwhile, the Broncos were the best defense by DVOA in the second-half of one-score games. A better offense should mean fewer of the former and more of the latter.

And if all these advanced numbers are too much for you, here’s the easy argument: Baker Mayfield’s Rams putting up 51 points on the Broncos on Christmas Day was a fluke. And if you throw that game out the Broncos would have finished fifth in the NFL in scoring defense last year with 19.3 points allowed per game, a slight drop-off from their third-place finish from 2021. Denver could have given the Rams 38 points and still finished in the top 10.

This will NOT have a top-10 scoring defense — Zac

For the most part, the Broncos’ defense held their own last year. Yet, at the end of the season, they still finished with only the 14th-best scoring defense in the NFL. Sorry to say, but the defense isn’t going to be better this year.

Making it in the top 10 is not an easy task, especially when the team is finally entering the modern NFL and beginning to invest more on the offensive side of the ball with Sean Payton in town.

Speaking of Payton, during his 15 seasons with the Saints, New Orleans only had a top-10 scoring defense five times. Additionally, Denver’s defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has never once led a top-10 scoring defense during his five years as a defensive coordinator and two years as the Broncos’ head coach.

The Broncos’ secondary is great, led by Pat Surtain II and Justin Simmons. Their inside linebackers are good too. But their defensive line, outside of Zach Allen and DJ Jones, is full of question marks as is their outside linebacker unit.

The Broncos are set up to be good on defense, but not great. And in order to be in the top 10, especially playing Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert a total of four times a year, a defense has to be great.

Denver’s defense will fall short of being an elite group in the NFL. But that should come at the benefit of their offense being substantially better than last year.