Make the Case: Marvin Mims will be a top three receiver for the Broncos in 2023

Will Marvin Mims be a top three receiver for the Denver Broncos in 2023?

That is the question.

This is the debate.

The Situation

The Denver Broncos’ receiver room is packed. Not only do the Broncos have many notable veterans in the room—Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick—but they have a massive investment in the group as well.

In fact, the Broncos’ $44 million in cap space allocated to their receivers in 2023 is the most in the NFL. Courtland Sutton’s $18.2 million cap hit and Tim Patrick’s $11.1 million cap hit lead the way, with Jerry Jeudy’s $4.8 million cap hit coming in significantly behind.

Despite having a crowded, and expensive, room, Sean Payton and George Paton decided to use their first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on adding to the room by trading up to grab Oklahoma receiver Marvin Mims.

Will Mims take a backseat to the higher-paid veterans during his rookie season, or will Payton make him a significant part of the offense?

The Cases

Marvin Mims WILL be a top three receiver for the Broncos in 2023 — Zac

Not only could Mims be a top three receiver for the Broncos as a rookie, there’s a fairly straightforward path for him to be a top-two receiver for Denver in 2023.

What should not be forgotten is Sean Payton was open to shaking up the receiver room in a significant way earlier in the offseason. While Denver didn’t trade Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton or K.J. Hamler, all three were involved in some sort of trade discussions in the offseason.

Payton is not tied to Jeudy, Sutton, Hamler or even Tim Patrick. All four of them were in Denver before the head coach arrived to the team this offseason.

Mims, on the other hand, was drafted specifically by Payton and (George) Paton. Only Mims, Marquez Callaway, Lil’Jordan Humphrey and undrafted rookie Taylor Grimes are “Sean Payton Guys,” meaning they arrived after Payton. And among those four, Mims is by far the most notable.

Additionally, Payton has a tremendous history of not only using rookie receivers, but getting significant production from them.

Michael Thomas, a second-round pick much like Mims, had a mind-blowing 92 catches for 1,137 yards and nine touchdowns as a rookie under Payton in New Orleans. Seventh-round receiver Marques Colston racked up 70 catches for 1,038 yards and eight touchdowns as a rookie with the Saints. Additionally, Kenny Stills and Brandin Cooks each had over 500 yards as rookies with Payton.

One of the great characteristics about Payton is he will play the best player, regardless of age, draft status or salary. Just because Mims is 21 years old and getting paid significantly less than the majority of the receiver room means nothing to Payton. He’ll play the best and most impactful player. And Mims will certainly be at least in the top three.

Marvin Mims will NOT be a top three receiver for the Broncos in 2023 — Henry

The Broncos have a clear top three at wide receiver: Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick. Cracking that rotation of proven veterans will not be easy, especially for a rookie receiver.

Last season, the seven receivers chosen in the second round of the draft averaged 390 receiving yards. The five second-rounders in 2021 averaged 235 yards in their rookie season. The seven second-rounders in 2020 averaged 549 yards. Over the three years combined, second-round receivers averaged 408 yards.

Meanwhile, Patrick, the Broncos’ projected No. 3 receiver, has averaged 738 yards in his two healthy seasons since becoming a starter. Only three of the 19 rookies hit that mark.

Mims is a special talent. His freakishly fast and set the nationwide single-season receiving record for high school football. He led Oklahoma in receiving in all three seasons on the team. I’m high on Mims’ future in the NFL, I just don’t think he can beat out any of the top three receivers as a 21-year-old rookie.

The Sooners use a unique route tree that is very different than what NFL teams use, which hints at a longer wait before he fits perfectly into an NFL system. Early on, his role will be stretching the field so others are open behind him. He’ll run streaks, posts and fades.

Sean Payton uses more offensive weapons per game than any other coach in the NFL, so Mims will still see the field plenty. The rotation at receiver will probably be about five players deep in any given week. Mims will start out competing for snaps as the field-stretcher with KJ Hamler. If he proves to be more productive than Hamler in the early season, he’ll see more action and could earn the right to poach snaps from the Big 3.

But even if Mims steals a job from one of the starters, that starter will have had a head start in the early-going of the season.

Given the Broncos’ contract situation, they’re virtually guaranteed to move on from a receiver after this season. That’s when Mims will move into a starting job.