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Lyons Share: This BBWAA member believes Todd Helton should be in the Baseball Hall of Fame

Patrick Lyons Avatar
Patrick Lyons
January 27, 2023
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The election of Scott Rolen to the Baseball Hall of Fame on his sixth ballot is a worthy one.

Rolen was to his generation of third basemen almost precisely what Nolan Arenado is today: outstanding defender, terrific offensive contributor and a cornerstone player needed for putting together a World Series contender.

Arenado has five seasons of 35 or more home runs so far while Rolen topped out at 34 homers in his best season. Rolen had five years of 100 or more runs batted in compared to Arenado’s seven, all in his last seven 162-game seasons.

Initially when making this comparison between the two, I figured Rolen’s hitting would pale in comparison to the perennial 35 homer, 105 RBI performances for Arenado. A closer look turned up much similar numbers. According to Baseball Reference, the difference in their first 10 years is minor when reviewing WAR, 52.2 to 47.5 in Arenado’s favor. The biggest factor for this: Arenado’s defense. 

A review of the rate stats give a slight edge to Rolen who had an .890 OPS to Arenado’s .881 in their first 10 campaigns, mostly due to Rolen’s on-base percentage making up for the gap in slugging percentage. And since WAR is park adjusted for some of the favorable attributes of hitting at Coors Field, Rolen has actually been better offensively than Arenado has through this point in their careers. 

One player who has been better than both Rolen and Arenado is Todd Helton.

In a Twitter poll, nearly 60% of baseball fans feel Arenado is already a first-ballot Hall of Famer. However, the standard for BBWAA voters may be significantly higher. Analyzing the same first 10 seasons for Helton and Arenado, as I did with Rolen and Arenado, turns up similar results: Helton was a better player at the start of his career than Arenado. Helton dominates when looking at OPS, 1.023 to .881, not to mention OPS+, 145 to 124. The difference in defense puts Arenado ahead in bWAR though, 52.2 to 50.2.

None of this is to discredit Arenado, but rather to illuminate just how talented both Rolen and Helton were during their era. How you feel about Arenado right now is the way fans, executive and those covering the game felt about Rolen and Helton circa 2006. If it took Rolen six ballots to reach Cooperstown and likely six for Helton to get there, Arenado will need to keep up his consistency in order to buck this trend.

Helton is in a great place for next year’s ballot. He appeared on 72.2% of ballots this year and missed the required 75% by 11 votes, a mark tied for 18th-closest in Baseball Hall of Fame voting history. All 17 players who were closer to 75% without reaching the mark are now enshrined in Cooperstown.

But as Joe Posnanski recently pointed out, there’s a slim chance that election may not come as quickly as next year.

Consider the curious case of Jim Bunning. The nine-time All-Star and Congressman for the state of Kentucky received 74.2% of the vote in 1988 during his 12th year on the ballot. Despite needing just four more votes, Bunning never reached 75% in his final three years due to some new names on proceeding ballots that changed the conversation on Hall of Fame standards. Bunning may have fallen off the ballot after 1991, but a veterans’ committee righted the wrong and elected him in 1996.

Let’s hope history doesn’t repeat itself and Helton has to wait eight more years for the inevitable when Adrian Beltré is added for 2024 and Ichiro Suzuki is listed in 2025.

My 2023 Hall of Fame ballot

While I’m only in my second year with the Baseball Writers’ of America Association, it’s hard to not think, “What would I have done?”

As someone who has spent many summers in Cooperstown, several of which corresponded with the induction ceremony, and countless hours roaming the museum and marveling over the plaques in hallowed Hall of Fame, the question of which players deserve a place there has always been at the forefront of my mind.

Two major thoughts direct my voting choices at this point in time. The first: going back to the early 80s, just about every year’s ballot has at least 12 names that eventually end up in the Hall of Fame. And the ballot in 1950 featured 47 names that eventually made it to Cooperstown. To say the 1980s and 1990s are underrepresented at this point is an understatement. In other words, I am not about having a small Hall. I don’t want a big Hall either, but I’d err on the side of including a player if it came down to it. My ballot should consistently have 10 players on it because of that.

Second: unless a player was handed a suspension, was fined or punished in any way by Major League Baseball for performance-enhancing drugs or otherwise, I do not feel the need to be an arbiter of justice to discipline an individual. If MLB did not feel the need to penalize these players, why should I? Their standard of acceptability may be different than mine, but two wrongs don’t make a right.

Helton and Rolen get my first two votes right away followed by one of the most dominant closers of his generation, Billy Wagner. He was short of Mariano Rivera’s postseason performances, but everyone fails in comparison to that. Wagner was still excellent and he consistently played on winning teams who saw him and paid him as one of the best to do it during his era.

Andruw Jones was a fantastic center fielder defensively during his prime and though his production at the plate fell off precipitously once he turned 31, he was contributing to Atlanta’s dynasty during the 1990’s at age-19.

Andy Pettitte is another player who was pivotal during a dynasty, winning five World Series with the New York Yankees, including 19 games in the postseason over 44 starts, most in baseball history. He’s that generation’s version of Whitey Ford. He won 256 games during his 18 seasons, and since 1990 only seven pitchers have been able to manage 250 or more wins. Only Roger Clemens, Pettitte and CC Sabathia – he’ll be on the 2025 ballot – are not in Cooperstown from that group. Though Pettitte was named in the Mitchell Report, he owned up to his actions and was never reprimanded by MLB.

During their playing days, I never felt like I was watching superb greatness when Jeff Kent and Bobby Abreu were on the field. They were overshadowed by a lot more exciting and charismatic players. But the “eye test” or “gut test” is a flawed system, especially when we have data to help us out. When reviewing their career numbers, they were exceptionable and consistent despite their lack of dominance. Kent has the most home runs for a second baseman and Abreu is regarded as the 21st-best right fielder of all-time, according to JAWS, just ahead of HOFer Vladimir Guerrero Sr. 

Gary Sheffield is another player associated with PEDs who was never suspended for it once MLB changed their policy in 2004. Sheffield was one of the most feared and productive hitters of the 1990s. He hit third in the lineup 1,727 times, 14th-most all-time. (And yes, every Hall of Fame eligible hitter above him is enshrined in Cooperstown.)

Mark Buerhle is the pitching equivalent of Abreu in making ways. Both compiled, yet failed to reach critical milestones, and were never deemed superstars for their era. Once again, a review of careers shows Buerhle as a rarity amongst his peers, logging 200+ innings for 14 consecutive seasons. Since 1901 all seven starters with a streak that long are members of the Hall. His 3.81 ERA may raise eyebrows, but that was almost entirely in the American League when the DH only existed there.

Last on my ballot is Jimmy Rollins. He was overshadowed at times on the Philadelphia Phillies by teammates like Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, but he won the 2007 NL MVP (narrowly, over Matt Holliday) and went to the World Series in back-to-back campaigns, winning in 2008. His defense helped his value, something that changes the conversation when comparing him with peers Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada and José Reyes. 

Carlos Beltrán is 11th on my depth chart and, thus, would not have received a vote. Since this is his first year while others like Kent, who was in his final year on the ballot, take priority since their 10-year clock is winding down. All other players on the ballot are shrouded in controversy that resulted in penalties from MLB. 

Next Year’s Ballot

Colorado has a unique opportunity to add two other members of its organization to Cooperstown next year.

In December, the committee for Contemporary Baseball Era: Managers, Umpires and Executives will decide which non-players since 1980 should be recognized for their contributions to the game. 

For former Rockies’ manager Jim Leyland (1999), his resumé is as solid as any retired skipper over the past 40 years. He won the NL East with the Pittsburgh Pirates from 1990-92, won a World Series with the Florida Marlins in 1997 and won the AL Central with the Detroit Tigers in his final three years inside the game, making a total of two World Series appearances with the club. 

Leyland is also the only manager to helm Team USA to a win in the World Baseball Classic, which he did in 2017 in the fourth-year of the tournament.

His season in Colorado is a blemish on his record, losing 90 games and leaving the organization with two years remaining on his deal, but his 1,769 wins can’t be ignored. That’s 18th-most all-time and third-most for a manager who never reached the Majors as a player. (The two ahead of him are already enshrined: Joe McCarthy and Earl Weaver.)

Celebrating the induction of someone like Leyland who barely spent any time with the Rockies might border on audacious. Considering organizations like the New York Mets can claim Yogi Berra as one of their own, or more recently the Boston Red Sox and John Smoltz and the Minnesota Twins and David Ortiz, it simply comes with the territory of being a big league club for a few decades.

With Helton’s election next year seemingly a foregone conclusion, it begs the question, “Who will be the next Rockies player to reach the Baseball Hall of Fame?” 

The immediate response from many is the aforementioned Arenado. The 31-year-old has already put in the minimum 10 seasons and it’s fair to say he could retire today and still reach Cooperstown, even if it would take a few years to reach the 75% mark. 

Arenado has five more years remaining on his deal with the St. Louis Cardinals and could very well extend his career by a few more seasons. If Arenado opts to retire at the end of his current deal following the 2027 season, his induction to the Baseball Hall of Fame would be no earlier than the summer of 2033. 

Between now and then, several candidates from Colorado will appear on the ballot. Matt Holliday, Carlos González and Troy Tulowitzki are two names that will have an opportunity in the next two years to be like Helton: get 5% the first year on the ballot and continue to be in the conversation in hopes of rising up to reach the 75% threshold.

Of those three, Matt Holliday has the best chance following in Helton’s footsteps. His numbers fall short of Helton, but Holliday’s World Series win with the Cardinals in 2011 can be helpful to his cause. That ring alone could earn him checkmarks from voters in the Midwest, not to mention some on the east coast who witnessed his age-37 season with the Yankees, even though he was well past his prime at that point. 

Also up for consideration is Dale Murphy, who shares a lot in common with Leyland. Murphy came to the Rockies just hours before the first game in franchise history in 1993. He lasted all of 49 plate appearances and was unable to knock the two home runs he needed to reach 400 for his career. His best days were with Atlanta, winning back-to-back NL MVP Awards as one of the best players of the early 1980s. Potentially, he’ll appear on the Contemporary Baseball Era ballot for a second time in December 2025 after receiving 50% of the vote from the 16-member committee last December.

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