Living and dying by the numbers; analyzing our Week 2 NFL picks

We uncovered our newest model last week, introducing a way to use the over/under win totals against the spread. The results from week one were extremely encouraging, 11-4-1. So we tried it out in Week 2, with slightly less shining results, going 6-and-5 in games with a differential of one point or more and 3-and-2 in our weekly picks.

Here’s a look at what worked and what didn’t, as well as some strengthened opinions on a few teams. Going into week two, we felt it prudent to stick to the numbers, avoiding any immediate reactions to opening week which can be very deceiving. As we gain a bit more clarity and a larger sample size, we’re also looking at what we learned thus far and which teams might be underrated or overrated.

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Our wins:

New England Patriots by 6.5 

Pittsburgh Steelers by 3

Minnesota Vikings covering 2.5

Two of these were risky picks, as it was still hard to trust the Patriots with their uncertainty at quarterback and the Vikings. However, Jimmy Garropolo and Sam Bradford were both outstanding in wins for their teams. The Pats losing their quarterback late in the second quarter made things uncomfortably close, with the Miami Dolphins coming back and closing in within seven.

The Steelers were our first “stay tuned” line of the week and the line stayed at 3 for the home team. While the spread didn’t move, we had a two-point differential in favor of the Steelers, with Pitt as a five-point favorite in our suggested spread. That was more than even our straight up Minnesota pick. The Steelers took care of business winning by 8 against rivals Cincinnati Bengals.

Minnesota has worked out two weeks in a row with this numeric model, despite limited offensive performances, they’ve been a real spread buster in the first two weeks. A trend that could very well continue until the line makers adjust.

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Our misses:

Buffalo Bills even 

Indianapolis Colts covering 6

So Buffalo was the one team that both our YPP line and our picks approved of, instead, they flopped on Thursday night, to a New York Jets team that might just be an undervalued candidate at this point. The Bills are the biggest feast or famine team there is, a gambler’s nightmare because every snap is an absolute roll of the dice.

On offense, they’re so reliant on big plays and Tyrod Taylor to get loose and throw deep. Their defense is just the same. The corners might pull off that occasional game-changing pick, but they’re also likely to get burned regularly like they did last Thursday, with Ronald Darby having a really rough game. Buffalo might just be an overvalued team; with a win total of 8 they look like a below average outfit right now.

We’ve already mentioned the Colts  as a potentially overvalued team last week, with their win total being set at 9.5, that’s certainly been the case in these first two games. Despite being thoroughly outmatched by the Denver Broncos, Indy was right at 6-points, until Von Miller decided to break the game open- causing a defensive touchdown to push the lead to 14 with just over a minute-and-a-half to go.

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Why staying tuned-in matters

Our other “stay tuned” candidate last week, the Kansas City Chiefs, began the week as a 2.5 point underdog, but that line moved down to 1, exactly what our suggested line had the game. With movement in the opposite direction of what we hoped, this became a stay away and despite public money agreeing with our initial instinct and moving the line towards KC, the Texans pulled through and won by 7.

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Who’s undervalued and overrated 

Using a metric like this, in which you use preseason over/under totals, it’s important to stay tuned in and see which win totals are looking too high and which too low. Potentially allowing for key adjustments down the road.

Positively impressed:

Houston Texans

Speaking of the Texans, this team has looked fairly sharp in the first two weeks. While there’s some level of over-emphasizing new additions in the offseason, Houston’s new weapons appear to be significant upgrades. Lamar Miller is running the ball well, Will Fuller is stretching the field and Brock Osweiller looks far more competent than any quarterback the Texans have had in a while.

Those offensive additions might be just enough for this 9-win team in 2015 to jump up to that 9.5-10 range, a significant difference from their win total number set at 8.5

Honorable Mentions:

It’s important not to overreact early on into the season, but there are a few teams who’ve shown real promise and potential improvements from 2015 in the first couple weeks. Most noticeably, the Philadelphia Eagles with their rookie quarterback Carson Wentz. The opponents they’ve faced make us still reluctant, but with two spread busting wins, we’re keeping an eye on them.

Not liking what they’re selling:

Washington Redskins

The Redskins had their win total set at 7.5, despite winning 9 games in 2015, having little regression differential, and making a few key additions to a budding roster. So, what gives? Simply put the Skins are underperforming their 7.5 win differential even if you consider the opponents faced. The problems are both on offense and defense, with both units underperforming expectations going into the year. Washington’s YPP numbers aren’t as doom and gloom, but there’s certainly reason for concern in the nation’s capital.

Honorable Mentions:

We’ve already talked about the Colts and Bills, but there are a couple of 2015 playoff teams who’ve struggled against the spread two weeks in, on top of the Redskins. Those teams are the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers.

The Packers barely didn’t cover Week 1 and suffered a close loss to Minnesota, but it’s worth noting that Green Bay isn’t covering all the points they’re getting. Be weary of large spreads with them.

The Seahawks are another interesting case. Their offensive line struggles have been exaggerated by Russell Wilson’s limited mobility, since getting banged up midway through Week 1, leading them to underperform offensively. While the offense is this shaky, it’s hard to take all the points they get off of reputation.

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