Keys to Victory: How Colorado State can top New Mexico for an 11th straight time

DENVER — Colorado State travels to New Mexico this weekend with an opportunity to go .500 for the first time in 2021. If the Rams (2-3, 1-0) are going to do so, though, and continue a winning streak over the Lobos that extends 10 games, they need to replicate the type of performance they put together in last week’s 32-14 victory over the reigning Mountain West Champions. 

Despite David Bailey (RB) and Dante Wright (WR) not getting a single touch as they ease back into the lineup, CSU was able to drive up and down the field on San Jose State. The Rams held the advantage in total plays run, time of possession, total yards, Red Zone opportunities, etc. It was tremendous execution in the run game, passing game, and special teams. It was defensive dominance as CSU held its opponent under 300 total yards for the third game in a row. And it was an indicator that this team can be a factor in league competition after all.

Unlike when the Rams built an early lead against Vanderbilt and then squandered the moment, when CSU had a chance to put the game away early in the second half, that’s exactly what they did. For the first time this season CSU had a four quarter display of quality football in every facet of the game, and that’s a big reason why the Rams not only beat the Spartans (3-3, 1-1) but did so handily. 

The Lobos have less talent than the Spartans do, so on paper this is a matchup that significantly favors the Rams. But with nothing to lose, a stated desire to end the streak, and their home fans there to cheer UNM on, CSU is going to need to be prepared for anything on Saturday.

With that in mind, here are three keys to victory for CSU against UNM.

Hold UNM under 100 rushing yards

The Lobos may be without starting quarterback Terry Wilson, so there’s a good chance they are going to need to rely on the run game against the Rams. 

So far this season UNM has been inconsistent on the ground, as they’ve only rushed for 100+ yards in three of its games, however, they were the two victories and a 7 point loss at UTEP. Those were also the only games that UNM was able to score more than 10 points and record 250 or more yards of total offense. So much like CSU, it’s clear UNM is most competitive when they can lean on the running game. The possibility of having a different QB under center only makes the ability to run the ball that much more important for the Lobos. 

Since getting gashed by South Dakota State in Week 1, CSU’s run defense has been consistently stout over the last four games. So unfortunately for UNM, as long as the defense can do what it’s done for the last month, it should be tough sledding for the Lobos on the ground. 

Plus, if CSU can take away their ability to run the football and make the home team one dimensional, it’s only going to play into the Rams’ greatest strength, which is getting after the quarterback with their star defensive ends. 

Win the turnover margin

It’s not rocket science. When you turn the football over, it makes it harder for you to win, and when you force turnovers it makes things easier. Turnovers creates more opportunities for your offense to score, they also allow the defense to rest on the sideline, and they just generally flip the momentum of the matchup. 

In New Mexico’s only wins this season, they won the turnover margin. But they’ve really struggled to protect the football of late. After recording just two turnovers through the first three weeks, UNM has seven over the last three. Uncoincidentally they have lost each of those three games. 

CSU, on the other hand, has five total turnovers on offense this year and two of them came in Week 1. So the Rams have done a nice job of valuing possessions and not giving the opponent short fields to attack against. 

On the flip side they’ve forced a turnover in each of the last four games and are coming off of a season-high three takeaway game against San Jose State. Very rarely are you going to lose a game when you finish +3 in the turnover margin. CSU just needs to keep it up against UNM on the road. 

Own the third quarter

CSU has been outscored a combined 42-0 in the third quarters of the three games they’ve lost — 14-0 each time. In their two wins the Rams have outscored their opponents a combined 20-0 — 10-0 each time. 

Obviously, winning the third quarter doesn’t guarantee that you will always come out on top, but it’s usually a strong indicator of who is in control going into the fourth quarter. It’s also usually a sign of which team is able to adjust better on the fly. If the Rams do it once again on Saturday night, they will more than likely win the game.