Joe Sakic faces his toughest challenge yet

Let’s start with the obvious here.

When the NHL announced their GM of the Year candidates and Joe Sakic wasn’t on it but Jim Nill was, the credibility of the award went out the window. Sakic’s offseason consisted of taking chances on a myriad of guys to improve Colorado’s depth.

Every move Sakic made worked out, including pulling Val Nichushkin off the scrap heap Nill put him on and watched Nichushkin finish eighth in the Selke Trophy voting. Granted, Nill’s Stars beat Sakic’s Avs in the second round, so neener neener, I guess.

But this isn’t about that farce of an award so much as it comes to what’s next for Sakic.

He has impressively overhauled this franchise from one stuck in the same rut for a decade to one who has been ousted in Game 7 in the second round of the playoffs in back-to-back seasons.

But building a team that can make the postseason and win a round isn’t so difficult. We watched Minnesota have one of the great free agent splashes in league history and that was the pinnacle of their success. No, building a team that can get beyond that on a semi-consistent basis is the hardest thing to do in the league.

That’s what makes this such a crucial summer for Joe Sakic and the Avalanche. He’s built a contender, no doubt about it. How does he tweak the roster to tackle the deficiencies that held them back this year while not taking away from the strengths that got them there in the first place?

Given the prevalence of injuries throughout the regular season and playoffs, the path forward is as muddied as ever. One of the injuries that contributed to Colorado going home sooner than expected was that of Gabe Landeskog, which is where we’ll begin with Sakic’s To-Do List.

Keeping the Captain

Landeskog and the Avs have been through a lot together. With Landeskog now entering the final year of the seven-year contract he signed in August of 2013, he is allowed to begin negotiating his next deal.

In the six completed years of the deal, Landeskog has been a model of consistency in terms of production. He has scored 20 goals five of the six years (he scored 18 in 2016-17) and has averaged 23.5 goals, 30.8 assists, and 54.3 points per year over that span.

Landeskog’s career-high came two years ago when he was a point-per-game player for the only time in his career as he registered a 34/41/75 line in 73 games played as the two-way anchor of Colorado’s top line.

He’s the captain, an excellent two-way player and when push came to shove, he asked the organization not to trade him when it was considering doing so back in 2016. He wanted to be part of the turnaround and he has succeeded in that.

The decision to bring Landeskog back should be an easy one. The question will be the parameters of the contract, which is crucial given that Landeskog turns 28 in November, meaning he will be 29 when this contract actually begins.

I’ve long used the Anders Lee contract as the benchmark for Landeskog given their overall similarities. The seven-year deal Lee, captain of the Islanders, got pays him $7M through 2026. Both players are power forwards who excel around the goalmouth and have a physical element to their games.

Lee is a year older than Landeskog, however, and less productive so while his contract provides a fine starting point, it’s fair to expect Landeskog to get more than Lee did per year. The issue of the flat cap should keep that number from far exceeding $7M per year but each side will have strong arguments built around that number.

The term is also a fair question as Landeskog already consistently misses in the neighborhood of 6-10 games per season and a physical player going into his 30s doesn’t traditionally get healthier as he goes.

Sentimentality says just give Landeskog another seven-year deal but there’s certainly the danger of finding themselves in the situation they are today with Erik Johnson, where they love the player but not his price tag.

It makes sense for Sakic to start here so they can stop dealing with hypotheticals on Landeskog’s next contract and lock in the actual number to plan their other financials around. The financial question looming largest, however, is not Landeskog…

Navigating an unprecedented defensemen market

Signing Cale Makar to his next contract is obviously going to be key. Colorado will prioritize keeping cap space in order to get Makar under a long-term deal but if they have to bridge him, they have to bridge him (which will open money to address other needs).

That decision doesn’t necessarily happen this year as Makar is entering the final year of his ELC already. What makes this situation so fascinating is the staring contest about to take place around the league.

The last wave of high-end young defensemen ended in long-term deals for Zach Werenski, Ivan Provorov, Noah Hanifin, and most notably, Thomas Chabot.

The Chabot deal, coming in at eight years and $8M annually, instantly becomes the benchmark for not only Makar but the historic young defenders all looking for contracts at the same time.

Makar is joined by (of course) Quinn Hughes, Miro Heiskanen, and Rasmus Dahlin as guys whose ELC expires after next season. That’s the future of the Norris Trophy debate all looking to sign new contracts at the same time. Not only will they all be looking to use Chabot’s deal as a starting point, but they’ll also be using each other as primary comps, as well.

Who blinks first and signs the first deal, setting the new bar and potentially being the one to end up with the least amount of money? Each of those players faces very different cap situations so weighing between bridge and long-term contracts will present each with a tough decision.

Get ya goalie

Sakic needs to address the goaltender position. Right?

Despite finishing fourth in the NHL during the regular season in team save percentage, the skill lacking most in the playoffs was availability. When Philipp Grubauer got hurt in Game 1 against Dallas, Pavel Francouz entered despite apparently being compromised himself.

The abysmal performance of Colorado’s goaltenders throughout the series is the primary reason they aren’t playing tonight, despite Michael Hutchinson actually being decent until the Game 7 implosion.

Grubauer had been rock solid up until that first period against Dallas, where he gave up three goals before getting hurt. Francouz was healthy in previous appearances and did nothing to suggest he would go to pieces against the Stars.

Is this really a position the Avs need to address or were they just unlucky?

That’s the question Sakic has to answer.

Byram? Timmins? Bueller?

Colorado is in a weird spot with their defense. An enviable spot, but weird. They have six NHL-caliber defenders manning their blueline and they all now have some level of experience as regulars and postseason players. That’s good.

The bad is we saw that depth dry up pretty quickly when they suffered just one injury. Erik Johnson going down against Dallas changed the complexion of that series as the Avs had to turn to Kevin Connauton and Conor Timmins to try to patch the hole. Connauton struggled and Timmins got hurt after also struggling a bit to find his game.

While you appreciate the talent present with Graves, Zadorov, and Cole all back there, none of them are players the coaching staff should be comfortable sending them out for more than 20 minutes per night at this stage of their careers. They’re all different guys with different strengths and weaknesses but none of them can reliably be a top-four D for an extended period of time in the playoffs. That’s a problem.

Timmins is also clearly ready for more. He just completed a very strong rookie year in the AHL and was a camp star over the summer. He’s ready for the next step. Will there be room?

That’s the question for Bowen Byram, too, whom the organization continues to love and who practiced with the team in the bubble in Edmonton. Byram clearly has nothing left to gain at the WHL level but can’t play in the AHL due to age restrictions on CHL players so it’s NHL or bust for him.

I’m not entirely convinced he’s ready for primetime yet but it’s obvious him going back to the WHL would be more about him getting a year older and maturing physically than anything specific about his game that needs work. He’s ready for the challenge of the next step. Will there be room?

Lots of decisions to make along that defense.

Flat cap gang

The salary cap is staying where it is for the next year, maybe two, maybe three years. Planning around that on the fly is going to really elevate the front offices that know what they’re doing versus the ones making it up as they go.

Teams have to have plans for the future and when wrenches get thrown into them, have to be able to adapt on the fly. Colorado has been operating in a pretty impressive vacuum the last couple seasons but now that the roster is going to get expensive just as the salary cap stops moving it means the Avs will have to focus more on cost efficiency in every decision.

Instead of busting out the flex seal to fix holes in the bottom six, the Avs have to start developing internal replacements and taking advantage of their robust farm system.

They have prospects (as mentioned above) banging on the NHL door. They have to balance the need for cost efficiency (and nothing is more cost-efficient than ELCs) with the win-now mentality they are in. The pandemic forced a stagnant salary cap, which hurts everyone. How the teams navigate the unexpected will go a long way towards determining future Cup champs.

No pressure, Joe.