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Funny what a couple of years can do in the NHL.
It wasn’t that long ago that Joe Sakic was in the shadow of the impetuous attitude of Patrick Roy, his former teammate back during their glory-filled playing day. Their management structure didn’t last long and yielded almost disastrous results.
Their parting of ways left their pet project, the Colorado Avalanche, caught in a limbo that it appeared would take years to recover from.
Thanks to some uncanny patience, one particular trade request, and a windfall so enormous it’s still hard to believe it took place, Sakic has emerged as one of the league’s coolest customers.
And as the trade deadline approaches, he’s become one of the most important customers in a shopping market full of overpriced, suddenly-unwanted NHL players.
As teams have felt the rush to make the right move, league business isn’t waiting until Monday’s deadline to pull the trigger. Veteran defensemen who probably won’t sniff 20 minutes of ice time in the postseason are fetching top-100 draft picks left and right.
Blake Coleman landing in Tampa Bay kickstarted the movement of forwards. The expectation is there are a handful more to come.
And that’s where we come back around to Joe Cool himself.
Meeting with media minutes before puck drop of a game his team would win running away, Sakic made his intentions clear: We’re working. We’re interested. We want to get better. We are not desperate.
Beyond the admission of wanting to add a depth goaltender (Hunter Miska remains the backup for now so this isn’t a big surprise), Sakic talked more about what he wasn’t interested than what he was.
This is a man who, when Roy departed, had an organization near the bottom of the league in prospects, built a team that would put up 48 whole points in the first post-Roy season, and no longer was viewed as a destination by free agents around the league.
Those days? Those days are over.
He’s got cap space, a top-five farm system, and inarguably a top-10 NHL team that also happens to be one of the league’s youngest. It would seem he has it all.
But there’s a shopping list. Sakic is willing to pay the price to improve his chances of lifting the Stanley Cup as an executive after doing it twice as a player. But that willingness to spend has its limits and he made that clear on Wednesday night.
Whatever machinations opposing teams (and their trade-thirsty fans on social media) might have had on prying Bowen Byram, Alex Newhook, or Conor Timmins from Sakic’s grasp should likely be laid to rest now. Sakic plans to protect the extremely bright future he’s built for this team.
Beyond that, Sakic left the door open for dabbling in the rental market as well as trading his first round pick. He mentioned maintaining long-term flexibility because a healthy dose of expensive contracts is coming down the pipeline for the Avs.
There’s a micro view focused on today. There’s a thousand-foot view that has to consider the next five years. All of that comes together at the trade deadline as the team balances the concept of mortgaging future assets for today’s gain and staying the course of what is already a very competitive present.
Middle ground move
This is basically the J.G. Pageau move. He can fill in as your 2C while Kadri heals, then shift to 3C when he’s healthy. A rising tide raises all boats kind of situation, Pageau is having a career year on a bad team that lacks better options in their top six.
That experience allows him to moonlight in Denver as MacKinnon’s running mate until Kadri’s return. When that happens, they end up with MacKinnon/Kadri/Pageau/Bellemare down the middle and that is (do the sassy finger snap thing with me now!) nasty.
Thornton could also fit in here because he’s clearly not a top option anymore but would only be asked to play on Colorado’s second line temporarily before shifting down into the bottom six and onto PP2.
This all depends on the price but none of these guys should fetch a real pretty penny. Only dirty pennies in this category. Especially if you found them in Thornton’s beard.
Proceed like normal
This is basically the “do nothing” option mentioned above. Believe in the guys you have to get you by until the team starts to get healthy. Because of the timelines of the injuries, it’s easy to feel confident in trusting ‘your guys’ when the postseason begins and they’re all back in the lineup.
But the Avs needed a forward upgrade anyway. They were involved in the Blake Coleman conversations before Tampa Bay overpaid for him and then watched Stadium Series hero Tyler Toffoli go to the Vancouver Canucks, who are pushing for the Pacific Division title this year.
That’s two big pieces off the forward trade board before next Monday. Chris Kreider is still out there as the obvious big name. If Colorado does that, makes the postseason, and then gets entirely healthy while adding Kreider to the lineup?
They’re going to be a very tough out if that’s the case. That sounds like fun.
Go huge, go all-in
Don’t do this. Colorado is at the beginning of their contention window. This would be bold (and I do love when GMs buck their conservative nature and go ham) but it would be unwise.
The Avs have a boatload of fun and intriguing prospects, several of whom are very close to the NHL. No need to go burning through those to get significantly older, maybe not much better, and certainly more expensive just because you can.
It would be like showing up at a yard sale with $100 in your pocket and deciding to spend all of it simply because you could. This is what teams do in free agency, but worse because it’s the trade deadline.
The last aspect I want to talk about here is the present. We talk so much about the future, how bright it is, how they’ve positioned themselves beautifully to win the Stanley Cup someday. But it’s always someday.
I’m not saying the Avs are Cup-favorites right now with all of the injuries but if they really do return to good health in time for the first round of the playoffs, they have a meaningful shot to make some real noise.
In no way am I advocating for blowing a hole in the future (which is still damn bright, yessum), but they can afford to be aggressive in spots. This isn’t about mortgaging the future, it’s about building the present.
And I think it can be really easy to get lost in obsessing over smart planning for the future.
This year still matters.
Think of all a guy like Matt Nieto has put into helping change this organization. He was claimed off waivers and put on a line with Matt Duchene immediately! He has gone through hell with these guys and now suddenly the organization wants to horde mid-round draft picks while he stares down the barrel of UFA and another organization?
I’m not saying they have to go all-in to “win it for Matt” or anything like that. Just saying that the front office owes it to the players (far beyond Nieto, of course) who have poured all they have into this season to take that seriously and not just assume they’ll have more kicks at the can in the future.
No. Joe Sakic & Co. has put this team together to try to win the 2020 Stanley Cup. The west is as vulnerable as ever without a true blue contender out there to scare them, why should Colorado try to play it completely safe?
This. Year. Still. Matters.
You look at Nashville and Winnipeg. Two years ago, they faced off in an excellent conference semi-final for the right to get waxed by the Vegas expansion year buzzsaw. Their windows looked neverending.
Today, both are trying to climb over each other for merely a wild card spot. The future is inevitable. Colorado’s bright future, however, is not. It has to be managed carefully but it is not always a given.
The here, the now matters, too, and let’s not get so obsessed with the idea of Colorado trying to win the 2024 Stanley Cup that they forget it’s being awarded this year, too.
Where Colorado ultimately goes at this year’s deadline will be fascinating and could have ramifications for years to come. With all the cards in Sakic’s hand, the future of the Avs, and maybe the Western Conference, is in play.
For the first time since Pierre Lacroix was still general manager, the league runs at least partially through Colorado.