It's time for CSU football to make a change

 

FORT COLLINS, Colo. — Enough is enough.

For months we’ve heard how the locker room is in a better place, how the players are more athletic and that everyone is buying in. All of these things are great talking points but after losing yet another game in which the offense put up 35 points and amassed just shy of 700 total yards, it is obvious that Colorado State football cannot reach its goals with John Jancek leading the defense.

In Saturday’s 41-35 loss to Toledo, CSU gave up 436 yards on the ground (547 total). As a frustrated Mike Bobo explained in the postgame press conference, it’s pretty much impossible to win when you’re that bad against the run.

“You can’t give up 400 yards rushing and expect to beat anybody,” Bobo said. “We’ve gotta look at the tape and see what the problems are because we’ve got to fix it… If we don’t fix the problems, after ballgames, there’s going to be a lot of heartache.”

While Bobo didn’t say anything that the 24,000 people in the stands couldn’t see, what’s frustrating for the Ram faithful is the poor performance is nothing new. Since taking over as defensive coordinator in 2018, Jancek’s groups have given up an average of 225 rushing yards per game (398 total) — in that time, the Rams have gone 4-12.

What’s really telling, though, is that there is a direct correlation with how the defense fares against the run and whether the Rams win the game. Since the start of the 2018 season, CSU is 1-11 in games where they give up 150 or more yards on the ground. The Rams did beat Arkansas in 2018, despite allowing 299 rushing yards but even Bobo has admitted that they were lucky to win that night.

In the four games in the Jancek era where CSU has given up less than 150 rushing yards, the Rams have gone 3-1, with wins over San Jose State, New Mexico and Western Illinois. The lone loss was against No. 14 Utah State in 2018 when Preston Williams’ game-winning touchdown was overturned for illegal touching. Had the wide receiver not stepped out of bounds while running to the end zone, CSU would be a perfect 4-0 in those games. The problem of course is that there have been far too few of these types of games from the defense.

Obviously, it’s not a massive sample size — 16 games is enough to adequately assess someone’s performance, though — and Jancek’s performance has not been up to par. Week after week, the defense looks unorganized and inept, and what is really concerning is that the problems are getting worse with time — despite how many of the players are in their second year in the system.

Considering Marty English, a local legend, was essentially run out of town for not being able to slow down the run and his teams were actually statistically superior to Jancek’s, there’s really no argument in defense of Jancek at this point. As Bobo frequently tells the media, this is a results business, and CSU is not getting the right results with Jancek as defensive coordinator. In fact, they’re getting embarrassed on a weekly basis.

Honestly, these same arguments could be used against Bobo too — now in his fifth season as head coach, the program has not progressed and his teams almost seem incapable of taking the next step.

However, given his relationship with the athletic director and the terms of his contract, it seems highly unlikely that the school would make a midseason change.  When Bobo signed his extension in 2017, his contract essentially became a five-year deal worth a nearly-guaranteed figure of $10 million. It will be surprising enough if anyone other than Bobo is the head coach at CSU in 2020, let alone an interim guy in 2019.

With that in mind, if Bobo is wise he will let go of his longtime colleague, Jancek. Relieving the defensive coordinator would not win over his biggest critics, not even close. But at the very least it would show that he’s willing to try something different. Bobo’s loyalty has always been admirable but at this point, the fans are desperate for change. This move could buy Bobo and Parker some temporary goodwill — something they definitely could use with four home games still remaining and a fanbase that’s rapidly losing faith.

Just a few short years ago, this was a program that felt like it was on the verge of something special. That magic is gone. And unless something changes, don’t expect it back anytime soon.

Yards allowed in John Jancek’s tenure

2018

vs. Hawaii (617 total yards | 199 rushing) L

vs. Colorado (596 total | 258 rushing) L

vs. Arkansas (437 total | 299 rushing) W

at Florida (341 total | 222 rushing) L

vs. Illinois State (538 total | 267 rushing) L

at San Jose State (285 total | 48 rushing) W

vs. New Mexico (299 total | 134 rushing) W

at Boise State (450 total | 150 rushing) L

vs. Wyoming (413 total | 297 rushing) L

at Nevada (639 total | 235 rushing) L

vs. Utah State (310 total | 141 rushing) L

at Air Force (474 total | 393 rushing) L

2019

at Colorado (475 total | 243 rushing) L

vs. Western Illinois (215 total | 64 rushing) W

at Arkansas (520 total | 215 rushing) L

vs. Toledo (547 total | 436 rushing) L