It doesn't matter that the Rockies were good in April

DENVER — The Rockies are off to one of their hottest starts ever, finishing April with a 16-10 record and sitting, to the surprise of many, in first place in the NL West. But with the first month of play behind them, there is one common caution being shared by Denver fans: “Don’t get excited yet, the Rockies are always good in April.”

Yes, in the past few seasons the Rockies have regularly posted a winning record through their first month. In 2016 they went 11-12, the first season since 2010 they posted a record below .500 in April.

There has already been a feast of articles about why this season’s team is not like the April Rockies of years past. But here’s the point: there is little correlation between any of the team’s April performances. Each featured different rosters, different dynamics, different levels of opposition within the division. Just about the only thing they have in common is the word “April.”

Beyond the observable fact that the Rockies have had more winning records than losing in April in recent years, there is nothing to take away from pointing out that the Rockies are “good” in this one particular month.

But in the same way people often extrapolate a lot of information from small sample sizes through the early part of the season, April is the only time where anyone looks at a team’s record in a given month as an indicator of future performance.

April does stand as the team’s best performing month historically, with a lifetime winning percentage of .502. But that’s not far off from their record in September 0f .497, and in both months they have posted winning records in nine out of the team’s 24 seasons (of course, the 1994 strike meant a short August ’95 season and no games played in September of ’94).

But when September rolls around and the Rockies are (hopefully) in the playoff race, nobody will be arguing for optimism because “the Rockies are always pretty good in September.” By then, with a full almost season of games and data behind us, that argument would just sound silly. It sounds just as silly in April.

It’s also worth noting that the idea that the Rockies are good in April is a somewhat recent development. In 2005, and running up until about 2011, the narrative was that fans should overlook the team’s April performances in searching for optimism because the team was “always” bad in April. In that span, they posted a winning record in only 2007.

The Rockies could run into trouble in May, sure. Or in June, July or any other month, and for a variety of reasons: injuries, the starting rotation’s performance declines, some of last year’s culprits in the bullpen struggle again. But it won’t be because it’s not April anymore.

There are only two members of the 2013 opening day roster who are also members of this current team. Carlos Gonzalez and Adam Ottavino. The clothes don’t have special powers.

The Rockies were good in April because the Rockies of 2017 are a good team, and they will probably continue to be a good team. But for those still attached to the month-by-month analysis, this month should be very telling — May is historically the team’s worst performing month (with a winning percentage of .434). So if the Rockies struggle, we can all comfort ourselves by remembering that the Rockies are always bad in May.