Is the Rockies division lead a statistical miracle or genius plan?

For those of you who’ve watched the Colorado Rockies play all season, this shouldn’t come as a surprise; the Rockies being in first place in the NL West is nothing short of a statistical miracle. The eye test matches up with the stats, too, as the Rox bats have struggled, they’ve been terrible at home, and their bullpen has seen some reliable members falter in the early going.

Yet, there sit your Rockies as Kings of the West, and the numbers might suggest it is all just a mirage before they regress back to the mean.

Per the Pythagorean win algorithm—which is entirely based off of run differential—the Rockies should be 22-28 this season. When we apply the formula to the overall projections for the entire season, their record should be 68-94, a far cry from the 81.5 win total the money line had them at in the preseason in Vegas, or the 87 wins they produced a season ago.

Looking at just those numbers and their -28 run differential, the stats would suggest that the Rockies will come crashing back down to earth, while teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers should get back in the swing of things—see our chart below for the season’s Pythagorean projections. 

Look further into the numbers, and things might not be as drastic as the numbers would suggest, and maybe, just maybe, this is going somewhat according to plan for Colorado when they constructed this team during the offseason.

For one, the average run differential in wins for Colorado this year is of 2.6 while their differential in losses is -4.4. That suggests that with the teams added pitching prowess, they’re managing to win a lot more close games, which has allowed them to stump the Pythagorean projections.

That trend is shown in their record in one-run games too, as the Rockies are 8-4, one of the best win percentages in the MLB and tied with the Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves for the second-best record in such games in the entire National League. That’s all by design as the pitching’s been key in such contests as has the bullpen which, while some have struggled, has seen both Wade Davis and Adam Ottavino absolutely dominate late innings.

Another reason to think the Pythagorean projections can be bucked is how poorly the Rockies have performed at home, where they’ve only played 18 games compared to the 31 they’ve been on the road. At home, Colorado has a -27 run differential, while they sport a -1 RD in away games. That’s a staggering figure for a franchise that’s typically been tough to beat in the confines of Coors Field.

The offense especially has struggled and as the weather heats up—this has been the coldest first two months in Coors Field history—so should the Rockies bats, a big reason why the team just doesn’t project to be able to sustain success if things keep going this way. 

What’s most interesting is that the structure of the team—with a focus on pitching and especially the bullpen—has been different, and the Rockies might not be as concerned about their Pythagorean wins as most other franchises would.

In recent history, Colorado has underperformed in terms of their projections per the metric on a regular basis, consistently winning fewer games than the algorithm would suggest. In fact, in every season since 2009, the franchise has lost more games than their Pythagorean record would have suggested. That’s a staggering difference for a stat that’s usually pretty spot on. 

While it might not be by design to win games despite having a negative run differential, this is something the organization is aware of, and they’re following a model of other teams that have overachieved per these stats in the past. 

The Kansas City Royals are a prime example of this. When KC won it all in 2015, they outperformed their projections of 90 wins by five. Though the Royals did have a positive run differential in 2015, the model they followed is similar to how Colorado’s structured their team this season; with an elite bullpen and strong pitching. The Royals team that went to the world series and lost to the San Francisco Giants back in 2014 was also five games above their projections.

The Giants two world series season, especially in 2012, followed that same model as well, outperforming their Pythagorean wins by six games. Of course, all these teams still had positive run differentials and were “only” overachieving their projections by five to six games after 162 games. The Rockies are already overperforming by four wins after 50 games. 

Colorado’s model has worked in the past, and it’s worth believing that they’ve managed to flip the script after an uncanny trend of underperforming their projections.

Then again, their -28 run differential and poor showings at home aren’t sustainable. Things will have to change if their standing atop the West should be maintained, there’s no getting around that, but there’s evidence to suggest that could be the case here soon. Get excited at your own risk. 

Estimated wins for 2018