Is Nikola Jokic back? Why the Nuggets think their All-NBA big man flipped the switch

Paul Millsap knew well before he caught Nikola Jokic’s pass with under eight seconds remaining that there was no way he was shooting.

Millsap was already thinking about what was next from the moment he made eye contact with Jokic and saw the Nuggets’ big man begin to fling a left-handed pass to him under the hoop — one Jokic admitted after the game was “sloppy.” He thought there was no way he’d be able to rise above the five 76ers players who had just converged on him at the basket.

“I saw the play before it happened,” Millsap said. “I knew he was going to throw the ball, so I was able to get in position. I felt like the pressure on my back like I had a few guys. So there was no chance I was going up with the ball. I just wanted to get it out, make sure our spacing was good, and just kick the ball out. I kicked it out to the right guy.”

As Millsap dribbled out of a crowded paint and towards the left corner, Jokic back-peddled away from his frontcourt partner and towards the left-wing. He caught Millsap’s pass and let go of a high-arching 20-foot heave which seemed to hang in the air for an eternity. And as Jokic hit the hardwood, eyes still fixated on the ball in flight, it dropped through the net.

The result was a Nuggets’ 100-97 come-from-behind win. Denver trailed by 19 points in the fourth quarter.

“You never can be 100% sure,” Jokic said about his game-winner. “But it felt good.”

Jokic’s heroics put a cap on one of the more perplexing stretches of his career. Two weeks ago against the Mavericks, Jokic attempted just eight shots in a 109-106 Nuggets’ loss. Two days later in New Orleans, the big man shot the ball just six times. Then came a 1-on-1 conversation between Michael Malone and Jokic — something that seems to be a yearly occurrence — about being more aggressive and shooting at least 15 times per game. Jokic got up 14 shots against the Magic and then just 12 earlier this week versus the Heat while he dealt with foul trouble. The Nuggets were stringing together wins but questions about his aggressiveness or lack thereof clouded a 5-2 start to Denver’s season.

Jokic calmly put that storyline to rest Friday. He was aggressive throughout the Nuggets’ highly-anticipated bout with Joel Embiid and the 76ers, firing eight shots in the first half including four 3-pointers. But Jokic and the rest of his teammates were ice cold. Denver shot just 16 of 40 (40%) from the field and 1 of 7 from 3 as Philadelphia took a commanding 15-point lead into the break. The Nuggets briefly found their rhythm in the third. Denver got a couple of 3s to fall but then quickly relinquished that momentum. The Nuggets were staring at a 19-point deficit at the beginning of the fourth.
From there Jokic took over. Even after missing his first six 3-point attempts of the game — a trend that aligns with Jokic’s miserable start to the year from beyond the arc (he’s shooting just 26.5% from 3) — Denver’s big man still let it fly from distance and around the rim. He outscored the entire 76ers team 16-13 in the period as the Nuggets roared back in what would go down as the biggest fourth-quarter comeback in franchise history.

But how about that right-hand turn to the storyline surrounding his play, one which had even begun to annoy Michael Malone in recent days. Amid a season where his aggressiveness has been questioned and when he has shied away from shots he would typically let fly, Jokic was as trigger-happy as ever Friday. It was Jokic’s aggressiveness but also part of Denver’s gameplan: get Embiid out of the paint and make him expend energy on defense challenging the Nuggets’ three-point shooting.

“When you’re an MVP-caliber player, eventually the shot’s going to go in,” Millsap said. “We want him to continue to shoot because at some point he’s going to get hot. That’s what MVP-caliber players do.”

So what changed?

Did a switch flip for Jokic about how the Nuggets need him to play on the offensive end of the floor? Or was it the opponent? Jokic and Embiid are regarded as two of the top centers in the league and went toe-to-toe for All-NBA First Team honors last season, an award which Jokic ultimately grabbed. Jokic downplayed the matchup with Embiid all week but he always seems to bring his best against the top players at his position.

Will Barton has his own theory.

“It was a competitive game. He’s a quiet guy but he’s really competitive,” Barton said. “And once the game gets physical and it’s down to the wire you see it come out of him.”

“Joker don’t really feed into the 1-on-1 matchups. That’s just not his style. He just goes out there and plays basketball. If you look at him He plays the same way no matter who he plays against. He lets the game come to him, he finds guys and he takes his shot when he has it. That’s just who he is.”

Something was different about Jokic tonight. From the opening tip, he was engaged, barking out orders on the floor, getting in his teammate’s ears during breaks in the action, and riling up a boisterous Pepsi Center crowd. Jokic was playing free and with a joy and spirit that he’s shown only on a couple of occasions this season. His 26-point, 10-rebound, six-assist stat line reflected the conviction and persistence he played with for 38 minutes.

“It was him just being engaged in the game, him getting emotional, him finding that,” Barton said. “That’s what I think was the biggest thing. We’ve seen him hit game-winners before. We know he can do that. It’s about him getting engaged with everything, with the game, getting himself into it. You know what I mean? Emotionally invested in it. When he plays like that he’s a mother fucker.”

Buried in Jokic’s game-winner was his defense particularly on his counterpart. Embiid had a quiet first half, tallying just five points on one made field goal but turned it on in the third when he scored 10 of his 19 points. In the fourth Embiid felt Jokic during every possession. He shot just 1 of 4 from the field and turned the ball over three times in the game’s final 12 minutes. Denver charts how many shots each of its players contest throughout a game and Malone estimated that Jokic contested a season-high 14 shots Friday.

The Nuggets’ had a simple gameplan for how to guard Embiid: Denver wanted to match his physicality, try and push him out of the paint, and make him as uncomfortable as possible.

“Even in the beginning he was trying to push me,” Jokic said. “And I said I’m just going to front him. I’m kind of heavy so he needs to push a lot just to push me out.”

“It was a battle.”

Jokic played the entire fourth Friday while Embiid got a three-minute rest mid-way through the quarter, yet it was the 76ers’ big man who looked winded late in the game. It was reminiscent of how Jokic has logged big fourth-quarter minutes before like during last season’s playoff run when he played 65 minutes in the Nuggets’ and Trail Blazers’ quadruple overtime thriller.

“Nikola, as we all saw in the playoffs last year, don’t judge a book by its cover,” Malone said. “He may not look like he’s the most well-conditioned athlete, but you can play him down the stretch and he can make game-winning shots like he did tonight.”

Last season, Jokic was among the NBA’s best crunch-time performers. In the last five minutes of games where the margin was five points or less in what NBA.com defines as “the clutch”, Jokic shot 49.7% from the field, the third-highest mark among players who attempted at least 50 field goals in those situations. He was also second in the league behind Lou Williams in clutch plus-minus last year.

This season Jokic is up to his old tricks. He’s already shooting 10 of 17 from the floor in clutch situations. Despite shooting just 46% from the field and 28% from 3 to open the season, he’s getting it done when it matters most.

“He’s a good shooter. He’s got to keep shooting it,” Barton said. “I tell people all the time there’s going to be tough stretches during the season. You never know if it’s going to be in beginning, middle, or end, but there’s going to be times when there’s going to be tough stretches for you, especially offensively. But you’ve got to keep shooting especially if you’re a guy that’s a corer. He’s our best player. We know he’s got to keep shooting. We know he’s going to hit them eventually. Just shoot through it.”

Jokic’s performance was reminiscent of the MVP-caliber player he was last season. He picked his spots throughout the first half then took over down the stretch. Most notably he went toe-to-toe with Embiid, stiffed him defensively, and outlasted one of his top rivals in what could be a momentum-building win for the Nuggets moving forward. Denver also got huge offensive contributions from Jamal Murray (22 points, six rebounds, and 11 assists) and Will Barton (20 points and seven rebounds). Paul Millsap (15 points, eight rebounds, two assists, and two steals) was also stellar defensively.

Down 19 points to begin the fourth quarter, Jokic showed his true colors. He didn’t back down. He didn’t cave. That would have been the easy way out.

Is Jokic back? It certainly seems like it.

“We want to have the heart of a champion,” Millsap said. “And that’s what champions do. Continue to battle, continue to fight.”