Is 30-year-old Kyle Dubas going to be the next Avalanche GM?

In answering the headline to this column: If it walks like a duck…

On Tuesday night, a person I consider not only a friend but for my money the best news reporter in the hockey business, Elliotte Friedman, dropped a pretty big news item between periods on “Hockey Night in Canada.” Specifically, that the Colorado Avalanche had asked for, and received, permission from the Toronto Maple Leafs to interview one of the team’s two assistant general managers, Kyle Dubas.

Dubas shares the assistant GM title with Mark Hunter, and the scenario that has been painted to me by a couple of, well, for lack of a better word, “insiders”, there goes something like this: Dubas at one time was the golden boy of the Leafs front office, the 20-something whiz kid who was the first hire by new Leafs president Brendan Shanahan in 2014. Dubas was gaining something of a “Theo Epstein, Billy Beane” reputation as an analytics guru who would some day soon manage the Leafs front office.

But then, in July, 2015, Shanahan hired 72-year-old Lou Lamoriello to be the GM. In August of 2016, Mark Hunter was promoted from Leafs director of player personnel to assistant GM. Dubas retained his assistant GM title, but most of his duties were spent as GM of the Leafs’ AHL affiliate, the Toronto Marlies. Lamoriello, the word is, was not overly impressed by Dubas and believes Hunter to be the far better candidate to succeed him when he retires (Lamoriello is 74 now).

So, that leaves Dubas perhaps seeing the writing on the wall, maybe putting word out that he’d be receptive to other opportunities elsewhere should they present themselves. Enter, the last-place Colorado Avalanche.

Friedman’s word is as good as gold. The Avalanche offered a “we don’t comment on rumors” comment when I asked them Tuesday night about the story. So, that’s a non-denial denial, right? In other words, the story is true. Maybe, maybe not. In my experience with the Avs, much depends on their mood when asked about stuff like this. Sometimes they’ll just shoot it right down and tell you you’d be a fool to write anything. Sometimes they’ll give a non-denial denial when they know a rumor is totally wrong, but just don’t feel like addressing it any more than that.

But if Friedman said the Avs received permission to talk to Dubas, then I believe it. Question is, what happens from here? As even Friedman tweeted later, no one except Joe Sakic (and probably Josh Kroenke) and Kyle Dubas really know. We don’t know yet whether the two have already talked and nothing came of it. We don’t know if they already talked and are still negotiating. We don’t know if they have yet to talk, have a meeting scheduled for the near future to talk or have no plans to talk at all.

I’ve talked to a couple other people in hockey management circles to get their take on Dubas. One said he didn’t know that much about him and couldn’t offer much. But another, who will remain unidentified, said Dubas isn’t ready to be a full-time, head GM in the NHL and would be a bad hire by the Avs.

“As soon as Lou got there, he spent a couple weeks with (Dubas) and basically banished him to the island,” my second management source said.

Unfair? I don’t know enough about him to judge, but the fact is Lamoriello did promote Hunter while a guy, Dubas, was already on his staff with the same title. Dubas has that “analytics guy” tag on him, which he reportedly hates and is said to think of himself worthy of hanging with old-school hockey people. But he’s still just a kid compared to most NHL GMs, and that’s a tough club to gain acceptance.

What is now obvious, assuming Friedman’s report is true: The Avs, with Sakic’s blessing, are now looking around for his successor. Whether that’s for right now, where Sakic perhaps kicks himself upstairs as team president or some other manufactured title, or whether Sakic is looking for the right guy to take under his wing for a year or two and then hand off the job, we don’t know yet.

Wait, don’t the Avs already have a guy with the title of assistant GM, in Chris MacFarland? Yes. Actually, they, like the Maple Leafs, have two. Craig Billington also has the title of assistant GM. So, three assistant GMs now? Really?

Who knows. I expect plenty of changes to come with the Avalanche before the start of next season. On, and probably more so now, off the ice.