Inside the Nuggets' late-game offensive struggles vs. Pacers

At times this season the Denver Nuggets have looked like a different team late in games compared to last year’s edition that was just 5-10 in matchups decided by five points or less and shot a league-worst 36.7 percent in what NBA.com defines as “the clutch,” when there are five minutes or less remaining and the score is within five points.

In the closing stages of a November win over the Thunder, who have had their own struggles late in games this year, Denver outscored Oklahoma City 11-7 over the final five minutes and “played not to lose,” according to Nuggets coach Michael Malone. In a narrow win over the Heat a few days later, the Nuggets hitched themselves to Paul Millsap, who closed out Miami at the free-throw line. Even without Millsap and Nikola Jokic, Denver beat the Bulls on the back of Will Barton‘s six points in the game’s final minute.

Sunday night’s 126-116 loss to the Indiana Pacers looked like the Nuggets of last season. Denver endured a near eight-minute scoring drought from the two-and-a-half minute mark of the fourth quarter until the final 13 seconds of overtime when Kenneth Faried converted what amounted to a concession layup.

The Nuggets couldn’t get to the rim or into the paint and settled for one contested jumper after another. They played a prevent offense and weren’t aggressive.

Here’s what the Nuggets’ shot chart looked like during that scoring drought where Denver shot 0-10 from the field and 0-6 from three. The Nuggets didn’t attempt a free-throw over that span and committed five turnovers.

And here’s the play-by-play.

4Q 2:06 remaining: Nuggets 114 Pacers 108 – Kenneth Faried misses 18-foot jumper
4Q 1:42 remaining: Nuggets 114 Pacers 108 – Wilson Chandler turnover
4Q 1:08 remaining: Nuggets 114 Pacers 110 – Shot-clock violation
4Q :36 remaining: Nuggets 114 Pacers 112 – Zero pass possession, Barton misses 28-foot three
4Q :5 remaining: Nuggets 114 Pacers 114 – Barton misses 19-foot fadeaway
OT 4:19 remaining: Nuggets 114 Pacers 116: Nuggets don’t get ball below free-throw line, turnover
OT 4:03 remaining: Nuggets 114 Pacers 116: Faried turnover
OT 3:26 remaining: Nuggets 114 Pacers 118: Gary Harris misses contested 29-footer
OT 3:02 remaining: Nuggets 114 Pacers 121: Harris turnover (Lance Stephenson flops)
OT 2:37 remaining: Nuggets 114 Pacers 121: Barton missed three
OT 1:43 remaining: Nuggets 114 Pacers 123: Chandler misses contested 26-foot three-pointer
OT 1:19 remaining: Nuggets 114 Pacers 123: Harris missed transition layup
OT :49 remaining: Nuggets 114 Pacers 125: Chandler way off on 31-foot pull-up three-pointer
OT :42 remaining: Nuggets 114 Pacers 125: Harris missed three
OT :13 remaining: Nuggets 114 Pacers 126: Faried makes concession layup

The Nuggets were victims of some 50-50 calls that didn’t go their way, but most of Denver’s possessions over that span never had a chance. The Nuggets couldn’t get high-quality looks and settled for jumpers rather than attack Indiana’s defense.

Part of the reason why the Nuggets struggled in the fourth quarter and overtime is because they’re without their two best players in Jokic and Millsap, who are also Denver’s first and second options at the end of games. Without their starting frontcourt, Barton, who’s been solid late in games and is shooting 42.9 percent in the clutch this season, is the Nuggets’ default closer. But when Barton is out of rhythm and has the full attention of an opposing defense, Denver looks lost at the end of a close game.

“Down the stretch, not having a Paul Millsap or a Nikola Jokic, a go-to player that you can kind of go to to close the game, was really important,” Malone said on Altitude TV’s post-game broadcast.

Denver was also exhausted. It’s no excuse for the loss, but Barton and Harris logged 45 and 44 minutes respectively. Barton, Lyles and Faried all played the entire fourth quarter and overtime.

Harris and Chandler entered the game at the 8:50 and  5:51 marks of the fourth quarter respectively and played out the rest of the game. Late-game fatigue could have been a reason why the Nuggets didn’t get high-percentage looks late in the fourth quarter and overtime. Simply put, taking perimeter jumpers is easier and takes less energy than driving into the lane.

Lyles, who scored a career-high 25 points vs. the Pacers — 15 of which came in the fourth — didn’t attempt a field goal after his layup with 3:54 left in regulation either.

The Nuggets have been better in close games this year but are still shooting just 37.8 percent in the clutch this season, per NBA.com.

Denver has two games left on its current road trip, it will likely be without Millsap and likely Jokic in both. The Nuggets already ruled Jokic out for Tuesday’s tilt in Detroit. They’d be smart not to play him Wednesday in Boston either and target Denver’s next home game Friday vs. an inferior Pelicans team in a locale where the Nuggets have a better chance for a win, as a return date.

Leading by eight with 2:54 remaining in the fourth quarter, Denver should have closed out Indiana. It couldn’t. Once overtime hit and the Pacers scored the first bucket of the extra possession, the Nuggets collapsed.

“That game should have ended in regulation,” Malone said. “We had our chances to win it.”