When Abbott and Costello asked their most famous, hilarity-inducing question all the way back in 1938, they likely weren’t thinking about the 2018 Colorado Rockies. Still, the question, “Who’s on first?” is an age-old one and not just because of fancy wordplay and clever ironies.
First base, as the name can suggest, is often the first place that baseball teams look to stack their offensive weaponry. For 17 years, though, Colorado didn’t have to ask the question. They knew that No. 17 was on first. But now a team with expectations to compete has a series of question marks at this important position and a clear need to improve upon their offense from a year ago.
On Dec. 30, Drew Creasman laid out why we here at BSN Denver believe the Rockies don’t necessarily need to add to their lineup in order to better their 2017 production. This, however, does not mean an addition would be unwelcome.
Right now, the Rockies are pretty well set at each position other than first base. As Creasman notes, the outfield group will inherently be more productive in 2018 than they were in 2017, leaving the inexperience of Ryan McMahon and Ian Desmond at the other hot corner as the glaring void.
Except not really.
The team seems ready to rely on McMahon for a significant amount of at-bats. Whether this means giving him full reign over the position, splitting time with Desmond or an external option is yet to be seen, but the Rockies are likely out of the running for Eric Hosmer even if his eventual contract will end up being within the team’s budget.
McMahon crushed his way to a fan-voted MiLB Offensive Player of the Year award, and it appears he will be rewarded with a shot at the starting gig in 2018.
In a season where the Rockies are making a run for the National League West division title, though, having a tried-and-true veteran ready in the wings—or even a contingency plan should McMahon struggle—is not such an inappropriate notion. Here are some external options for the Rockies should they feel compelled to fill first base with a more proven option.
The return of the Sheriff
A third go-round for Mark Reynolds in Denver would superficially make sense. He was a central figure in the Rockies’ lineup to begin the year, and his right-handed swing would ideally counter McMahon’s left-handed one in a platoon. Also, Colorado has always been comfortable with his defense.
The problem is, he showed reverse-platoon splits and was actually a below-average hitter against lefties. His average dropped 50 points, and he struck out more, hitting for less power.
Plus, his second half drop off, in which he didn’t reach a wRC+ of 100 after June, jeopardized the team’s postseason prospects late and might be grounds enough to go in a different direction.
Ryan McMinorLeaguer
With Yonder Alonso, Carlos Santana and Matt Adams off the market, the number of starter-caliber first basemen available that would warrant a full-scale replacement of McMahon—be it bench duty or beginning the season in AAA—is dwindling. But there are still options.
Current Chicago White Sox one-bagger Jose Abreu has always interested the Rockies, dating back to the $63 million offer they tendered him as an international free agent. The 30-year-old has never hit below .290 or hit fewer than 25 home runs in his four big league seasons. He would obviously be the big bat that detractors of the current Rockies roster are asking for. He is currently in his second year of arbitration, and would thusly be under team control through at least 2019.
But his team control process is not like most. MLBTradeRumors projected Abreu to earn $17.9 million in arbitration this season, likely putting his salary out of reach, up in the same tier as Hosmer.
Another name on the trade market, however, does not carry that heavy price tag and could still be the power bat necessary to sway the Rockies away from relying McMahon in 2018. Justin Bour of the Miami Marlins is entering his first year of arbitration and could fall victim to the Jeter and Co. demolition company. Were he a right-handed hitter, a platoon with McMahon could’ve been saliva-inducing. Either could be an extremely potent power bat off the bench on his off days.
Per Statcast data, Bour’s average exit velocity was two mph quicker than the league average en route to his first 25 home run season in the spacious Marlins Park. And while his average exit angle is two points below league average, those have turned into line drives more than ground balls. His salary is cheap, his bat is strong, and he is a competent defensive first baseman. The only question for the Rockies is whether the prospects required in a trade to acquire Bour would be enough to offset the value of keeping those young players and just going with McMahon.
Another intriguing starter option is longtime New York Met and recent Tampa Bay Ray Lucas Duda. Duda’s game is also one of slugging, putting the ball in the air nearly 50 percent of the time with an average exit velocity of 90 mph.
This would play well in the large Coors Field outfield. His 2017 line of .217/.322/.496 is pedestrian at best, but he has been good for at least 27 home runs in his three full seasons since 2014, and with a contender-level lineup around him, he could see better pitches and bring those numbers up.
Duda’s teammate in Ft. Lauderdale, Logan Morrison, though undoubtedly more expensive, is another player that could usurp McMahon in the interim. LoMo in LoDo, outside of rhythmic euphoria, could serve as power protection for Arenado, Blackmon and Trevor Story after coming up two home runs short of 40 in 2017. The caveat is that last season was unlike any other Morrison had since 2011, when he hit 23 home runs.
Morrison also began to elevate more, hitting the ball in the air at a higher clip than on the ground for the first time in his career. By doing so, he doubled his home run numbers without making significant changes to his pull or hard-hit rates. Because he will be entering only his second season with this approach, there is reasonable concern that 2017 was an outlier and that he can’t reproduce it.
But if it is as easily explained by a change in his swing path, he could be a productive first baseman for the Rockies even with some regression. The only question, with Alonso earning $8 million AAV and Santana breaking $20 million, how much will Morrison cost?
Platoons and backups
As noted before, McMahon’s left-handed swing is conducive to some interesting platoon options.
Danny Valencia had an underwhelming 2017 in Seattle, but his splits show a player that could benefit heavily from only facing lefties.
Where he was walking only 5.7 percent of the time against righties, he jumped to 13.4 percent against lefties. He also cut his strikeouts in a favorable handedness matchup, increased his isolated power by 40 points and upped his line drive percentage by nearly 10. He still hit three ground balls for every two fly balls, however. By UZR, he is weak defensively at first base, but still shows decent range and has extensive experience in the corner outfield spots as well as third base, which could make him a valuable bench asset as well.
Former Texas Ranger Mike Napoli could be an interesting option as well, perhaps more closely filling the role Jason Giambi did in his time in Colorado than a true platoon role. Napoli failed to hit .200 in 2017, but did swat 29 round-trippers. The 36-year-old is in the same vein as Duda in that his unrelenting efforts to lift the ball could elevate his play in Coors. He’ll strike out a lot, but 52 percent of the balls he put in play were in the air, and his average launch angle is twice that of the league average at 22 degrees. He was obviously trying to pull homers all season, as his swings to left field hit a career high.
In a reduced role where he is a complementary figure in a lineup, he could be that same long ball, sac fly threat that Giambi was, with that same kind of veteran presence.
Should the Rockies decide that McMahon/Desmond is not the answer at first base, they have other options to explore this offseason. From blockbuster trades down to platoon and bench pieces, there is value to be had. The question for Jeff Bridich is how much he trusts the 24-year-old, and how much he wants to spend in money, prospects—or both—to improve on the team’s postseason chances in 2018.
