How will the Spurs defend Nikola Jokic? Their first game of the season might provide some clues

Gregg Popovich erupted like a 2 liter filled with Mentos a minute into the Spurs’ final regular-season matchup against the Nuggets on April 3. Popovich, apparently incensed by a non-call against Paul Millsap in the post or perhaps just playing the long game with a Spurs-Nuggets first-round series possibly on the docket, stomped all the way to his team’s own free throw line in protest. He was tossed 63 seconds into the game.

“I was kind of sad that he was thrown out because I like to go against good teams, good players, good coaches,” Nikola Jokic said after his team coasted to a 113-85 win. “I think you can learn a lot from him.”

There’s mutual respect between the Spurs’ legendary head coach and the Nuggets’ franchise player. The two spent time together at Basketball Without Borders in Serbia last summer, and any time Popovich has been asked about Jokic, he’s offered effusive praise. Each one has a healthy understanding of what the other is capable of, which is why the tactics Popovich will use to try and slow Jokic is among the most intriguing plot lines in the first-round series between the teams.

Jokic mostly had his way with the Spurs this season. In their last three meetings, he is averaging 21 points on 76.3% shooting, 10 rebounds and eight assists. But Dec. 26, the first game between Denver and San Antonio, was a different story. Jokic was met with double- and triple-teams every time he touched the ball. In 31 minutes, he scored four points on 1-of-5 shooting and committed five turnovers.

It was Jokic’s second-lowest scoring output of the season and the fewest points he produced in any game when he logged at least 30 minutes. It was also his fifth-worst Game Score, according to Basketball Reference.

The Nuggets were without Gary Harris, Will Barton and Paul Millsap that night. Perhaps because they were so shorthanded, Popovich’s strategy was to make any Nugget not named Jokic beat them. Jokic, who averages 1.03 points per possession on post ups, is one of the most efficient low-post brutes in the NBA. The Spurs didn’t let him get anything inside, walling him off or sneaking in from the weak side any time he threatened to get near the restricted area.

If San Antonio tries to do so again, it’s up to Denver’s ancillary guys to make them pay. The Nuggets were a mediocre 3-point shooting this season. They shot 34.0% on “open” 3s (closest defender 4-6 feet away) and 37.4% on “wide-open” 3s (closest defender 6+ feet away), which ranked a respective 15th and 18th league-wide. Gary Harris (33.9%) and Will Barton (34.2%) tailed off from their previous two seasons, while Jamal Murray (36.7%) was up and down. All three should get good looks if the Spurs send extra help Jokic’s way. Can they step up and make them?

The Nuggets have lost 13 games in a row at the AT&T Center in San Antonio. That streak of futility might have come to an end Dec. 26 if Murray had been even average. The third-year guard labored through a 4-of-19 shooting performance. He hit only 1 of 8 3s. Inconsistency was a defining trait of his season, which is to be expected from someone who’s only 22. But over the last nine games, he’s strung together some strong performances, averaging 18.9 points (47.0% FG), 4.6 rebounds and 5.2 assists since his four-point, four-turnover dud in Indianapolis. Can he carry this over to the playoffs?

Jokic is not one to force the issue. He looks to find the open man when the defense is overly focused on him, not overpower double teams.

If Denver is consistently knocking down open shots, San Antonio will be forced to readjust.

The series should be decided in the half court. In the regular season, the Spurs ranked 22nd in pace and the Nuggets 26th. Watching the chess moves between Popovich and Nuggets coach Michael Malone will be fascinating. Does Popovich come right out of the gates doubling Jokic? Does Malone counter with a heavy dose of Malik Beasley, who shot a sizzling 42.4% on catch-and-shoot 3s during the regular season? 

“I think he’s a basketball genius,” Jokic said of Popovich following a Dec. 28 win over the Spurs at home. “Just if you see the game how he’s thinking, what plays he’s giving, how he’s thinking about it every possession. Even the last play: (Bryn) Forbes was wide open in the corner. He’s just a basketball genius.”

Jokic was referencing a sideline-out-of bounds play Popovich called that, if successful, would’ve tied the game with a little more than 2 minutes to go. Forbes got a good look but flicked it just a little long.

It’s impossible to know for sure if Popovich going bananas and getting ejected so quickly in Denver earlier this month was some elaborate okeydoke. Whatever it was, Jokic is bracing for anything come Saturday.

“I think they’ve got something for us,” Jokic said. “So we just need to be ready and prepare ourselves.”