How Will the Nuggets Handle a Crucial Free Agency Period?

Free Agency officially begins tonight at 4 pm MT. How will the Nuggets navigate a crucial window of the offseason? Our staff gives their predictions

Vogt: It still seems most likely to me that the Nuggets trade Cam Johnson and retain Peyton Watson. I’m not a fan of the potential half-measure, to be clear, nor as worried about the Kroenke fortune as those who sign the checks. If the brass are going to hold a press conference reiterating their confidence in the core, and insisting that injuries played a key role in their downfall, then they should be going into the second apron for a season. It’s not a death sentence— not any more than the self-imposed financial constraints, anyway.

The truthfulness of that premise is up for debate. That would, admittedly, be an expensive bill to pay for a team that just lost in the first round. But there are no clear paths to an encouraging outcome in this daunting offseason. If this new front office is going to move one of their core players, and their accompanying contracts, they’re unlikely to improve the team in the meantime. It would be a move done with, in the most charitable reading, an eye to the future — a future in which newfound flexibility might well be wasted.

Their splashiest win-now option appears to be Jaylen Brown of the Boston Celtics, but sending Jamal Murray would leave the team with zero point guards, and the Celtics are likely trying to stir up a bidding war by leaking intensified interest. In truth, Boston probably wants more than just Murray in any such deal, which Denver might view as too expensive. Final verdict: no deal.

Turning our attention to the bench, the signing of Bogdan Bogdanović looks increasingly likely. His NBA career is in a precarious position, but he’s worth a flyer on a minimum, especially so considering his relationship with Nikola Jokić. Keeping the big fella happy and tethered to the rest of the operation remains essential. In this case, they’d literally be adding one of his friends to the team.

Tim Hardaway Jr. will likely sign elsewhere after a stellar season on a minimum deal, and the Nuggets will have to try and strike gold with a minimum contract for a third straight season.

Lastly, AllCity’s Marc Stein reported that Nikola Jokić may wait a season to sign his contract extension. I don’t think he will agree to an extension before the deadline, given his chance to earn a little more money by waiting. That said, even if it’s purely a financial move, it still intensifies the pressure on Ben Tenzer, Jon Wallace, and everyone involved in making this team competitive again.

Mares: I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nuggets made a bigger swing than they are letting on. Last season, they publicly signaled that it would be an uneventful summer right before trading away a piece of their core in Michael Porter Jr.

Given Denver’s financial situation and their falling status as a contender, I wouldn’t rule out a surprising big swing. Jamal Murray seems less likely to be on the move than Christian Braun or Aaron Gordon. And both are less likely than Cam Johnson to get shipped out in a trade. But all are options, and I think the team will earnestly listen to every call and make a few calls of their own. My hunch is that only one of them is moved in what will feel more like a salary dump than a trade, but bigger moves are possible. Entire roster shakeups are possible.

I think the organization knows that a half measure, as Vogt puts it, likely won’t give them their best shot at a championship. But a big swing and a miss could put them even further away than before. I predict the Nuggets will approach any big swings with caution but will not hesitate to swing away if the right deal comes through. And given that half the league is as desperate as the Nuggets, I wouldn’t rule anything out.

Wind: I think the Jaylen Brown interest is legitimate, but I don’t know if they’re going to get into a bidding war to land him. So I’ll say the most likely outcome is a trade we don’t really see coming with a player we do: Cam Johnson to a random team in a salary dumping move. The corresponding move would be to sign Peyton Watson — meaning the Nuggets pretty much run it back with one change in their starting lineup.

Denver’s bench could look a lot different next year. I think the Nuggets will be bargain-bin shopping in the minimum free-agent aisle to fill out the back half of their rotation. David Roddy is someone the Nuggets really like and a bench player I believe will be back on a minimum contract. They’ll have to replace Tim Hardaway Jr.’s shooting off the bench somehow, since it seems like he’s going to be the latest Nuggets role player to have a big season that prices him out of what Denver can afford.