How the last two games of the season could dramatically impact the Broncos’ draft position

DENVER — The Denver Broncos’ 48-19 blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills on Saturday officially eliminated them from the playoffs.

With their ninth loss already sealed, the Broncos also guaranteed their fourth-straight losing season.

Thanks to all of that, the final two games of the season will only impact their future. The two main components of that are draft position and AFC West placement, which will determine two of their opponents for 2021.

Here’s where the Broncos could be drafting, and who they could be playing, in 2021 depending on how the final two games go.

CURRENT DRAFT ORDER

1. Jaguars (1-13)
2. Jets (1-13)
3. Bengals (3-10-1)
4. Panthers (4-10)
5. Falcons  (4-10)
6. Dolphins via Texans (4-10)
7. Eagles (4-9-1)
8. Cowboys (5-9)
9. Chargers (5-9)
10. Giants (5-9)
11. Lions (5-9)
12. 49ers (5-9)
13. Broncos (5-9)
14. Vikings (6-8)
15. Patriots (6-8)
16. Bears (7-7)
17. Raiders (7-7)
18. Ravens (9-5)

DRAFT PICK RANGE

Forget about the Broncos getting a top-two pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Much as they are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, they are also eliminated from the first and second pick in the draft.

However, they could still land the third-overall pick in April’s draft thanks to the Bengals’ massive upset over the Steelers on Monday Night Football.

On the flip side, Denver could fall all the way to the 17th pick in the draft. Falling to 17th would require the Broncos to win their final two games, and have the Raiders and Bears lose out along with the Vikings and Patriots each dropping at least one game.

Currently slated with the 13th-overall pick, the Broncos could rise all the way to the third pick, or fall all the way to 17.

REALISTIC DRAFT PICK

While a top-five pick is mathematically possible, it’s certainly unlikely. For this to happen, several factors would have to play out, including Carolina beating New Orleans and Atlanta upsetting both Kansas City and Tampa Bay, just to name a few.

Sure it’s possible for Denver to be picking third, but the odds are certainly not in their favor.

Conversely, the same is true for the Broncos falling all the way to 17th in the first round. For this to happen, Denver would need many things to go against them, including Chicago losing to Jacksonville, which would blow the Jaguars’ golden opportunity to land Trevor Lawrence.

Due to Denver’s difficult strength of schedule—which is used to determine draft order—it’s more likely they will fall back in the draft than drastically move up. Unless there is a drastic shift in strength of schedules over the final two weeks, Denver will lose the tiebreaker with every team they could end in a tie with. That’s why, as it stands now, they have the worst draft pick of the six teams that have 5-9 records.

The Broncos’ realistic ceiling in the draft is a pick in the back-end of the top 10. If Denver rattles off another win or two, they could easily fall to familiar territory with the 15th or 16th pick.

AFC WEST PLACEMENT

Believe it or not, the Broncos have a chance to finish second in the AFC West for a second-consecutive season. A strong finish, much like they had last year, would give them a shot to be ahead of the Chargers and Raiders at the end of the year.

Entering Week 16, Denver sits third in the AFC West, only ahead of the 5-9 Chargers thanks to the Broncos 31-30 walk-off victory against Los Angeles in Week 8.

Facing the Chargers and Raiders in the final two weeks, the Broncos could also fall to last in the division. Of course, they could finish third as well.

If Denver wins their final two games, along with the Raiders losing to the Dolphins on Sunday, they will finish second in the AFC West for a second-consecutive season.

If the Broncos lose out, they will finish fourth in the AFC West.

If Denver wins one of their remaining two games, they will finish either third or fourth in the division, depending on which games they win and how the Chargers do in their final game against the Chiefs. However, they will not have a shot to finish second in the division.

Why does this matter? Well, it doesn’t for 2020. But it has a significant impact on two games in 2021. The Broncos will play the team in the AFC South and AFC East that finishes in the same spot as them in their respective divisions.

For example, as it stands now, if the Broncos finished second in the AFC West, they would play the 9-5 Dolphins and the 10-4 Colts next year. However, if they finished last in the division, they would play the 1-13 Jets and the 1-13 Jaguars—the two favorites to land the top two picks in the draft. Playing the Dolphins and Colts would be significantly more difficult than the Jets and Jaguars.

That’s another reason why these final two games are very important.