How should the Nuggets handle Jamal Murray's nagging elbow?

Michael Malone pulled Jamal Murray aside Monday morning and began to discuss with his starting point guard how fatigue probably played a factor in Murray’s quiet second half during the Nuggets’ 109-105 loss to the Utah Jazz. Murray paced the Nuggets with 24 first-half points Sunday but only tallied six points on 2-11 shooting across the third and fourth quarters.

Murray wasn’t buying what Malone was selling.

“He goes, ‘Coach, I feel good. I got great looks,” Malone said Monday afternoon, relaying the conversation. “I’ve got to make those shots.”

Murray was right. He got great looks throughout the second half of Sunday’s defeat, many of which were wide open. Murray’s one bad second-half shot was a mid-range jumper at the 8:51 mark of the fourth quarter over Rudy Gobert which was blocked.

Here's Jamal Murray's 2-11 second half vs. Utah. He started 0-5 but I thought all five were great looks. His three missed third-quarter triples were all open and his layup around Gobert rimmed out. His one bad shot in the second half was the blocked mid-range attempt over Gobert. pic.twitter.com/4MImXrhUZt

— Harrison Wind (@HarrisonWind) January 18, 2021

Like Murray told Malone the morning after the Nuggets dropped to 6-7 on the season, those are shots that he simply has to make. Consistency is one of the areas where the Nuggets are counting on Murray to make a leap this season, and night-and-day first and second halves like Murray played vs. Utah simply won’t cut it. After all, Murray hit shots with much-higher degrees of difficulty and when he was more closely guarded in the first two quarters.

Fatigue, like Malone hypothesized, likely had something to do with the second-half shooting slump Murray experienced. That theory would also line up with how Murray’s game-to-game shooting numbers are trending so far this season through the 12 games he’s appeared in. Statistically, Murray’s shooting regresses from the first half to the second half.

Including Murray, six Western Conference point guards or lead initiators of their team’s offenses — Steph Curry, Luka Doncic, Damian Lillard, Donovan Mitchell and D’Angelo Russell — are averaging at least 30 minutes and six three-point attempts per game in 10 or more games so far this season.

Here’s a look at how Murray’s quarter-by-quarter shooting percentages compare to those five lead offensive options. It’s a small sample size after just 12 games, but how Murray’s currently tracking throughout a full 48 minutes is something to watch as the season progresses.

(Of course there are tons of other factors at play here. How close is the score in the fourth quarter or is it a blowout? How much does that change the level of defense being played over the final 12 minutes of a game? The sample is also small and can change quickly. But I thought it was interesting to look at after Malone’s comment regarding fatigue to Murray.)

There’s another factor that could have contributed to Murray’s subdued second half against the Jazz: a balky right elbow that’s hampered him for the last three weeks. Murray suffered a right elbow contusion in Denver’s third game of the season when he collided with Rockets guard Jae’Sean Tate and missed the Nuggets’ matchup with the Kings a night later. Since then he’s played through the injury.

Recently, Murray admitted the elbow has been giving him trouble. He didn’t open the season wearing a shooting sleeve on his right arm, but since the collision with Tate back on Dec. 28, Murray has sported one for protection. Throughout Denver’s latest loss, cameras captured Murray flexing and trying to massage his arm during stoppages in play.

“My elbow bothers me on every (shot),” Murray said. “I’ve got a bruise there. Every game I seem to hit it or kind of tweak it again. So every shot sometimes feels different.”

Still, Murray has found a way to put up career-best scoring numbers early on this season. He’s averaging a career-high 20.3 points per game but after a hot start his shooting percentages from both the field and three-point range have fallen to 45.4% and 35.8% respectively, which are both around his career averages.

Unfortunately for Denver, Murray’s scoring combined with Nikola Jokic’s MVP-caliber start to the season has resulted in a below-.500 record through 13 games. The Nuggets have also played the fourth-easiest schedule in the league so far, per Basketball Reference. That schedule is about to get much tougher. After tonight’s date with Oklahoma City, Denver sets out on a five game road trip beginning Friday in Phoenix where the Nuggets will play their first COVID special, back-to-back road games against the Suns Friday and Saturday. Then, Denver heads to Dallas, Miami and San Antonio to finish out a stretch of five games in eight days.

Joining Denver on that trip could be Michael Porter Jr., who’s missing his 10th-straight game tonight due to COVID protocals. He’ll provide offensive relief and maybe some insurance in case the Nuggets want to rest Murray, which might not be the worst idea at this juncture in the season. You get the feeling that if Denver was much more comfortable with its record, it would look to give Murray respite sooner rather than later.

Murray’s currently averaging 35.8 minutes per game, the 15th-most in the league and 3.5 minutes more per game than he averaged last season. It’s not a crippling amount, but it’s a heavy load especially after the Nuggets had just two months off following their Western Conference Finals run.

“I’d love to give (Jamal) some time off. I’d love to give Nikola some time off,” Malone said. “But the reality is right now being 6-7… it’s really hard to do that.”

Getting Porter back could provide an avenue for Denver to sit Murray down for a game or two. Once Porter and his 19.5 points per game return to Denver’s starting lineup — Malone indicated Monday that the 6-foot-10 forward will reclaim his starting spot when he’s activated — the Nuggets’ offense could survive for a couple games without Murray. Monte Morris is having an under-the-radar excellent offensive season off Denver’s bench and could man the point guard duties for a few games while Murray gets right. Porter could get steady reps as a primary offensive option again, a role he thrived in last season when Murray missed 10 games due to injury in January and an additional four seeding games inside the NBA bubble in August.

I’ve been on record since training camp that getting Jokic, Murray and Porter on the same page this regular season should be the Nuggets’ No. 1 priority and that their chemistry will only build with time spent on the floor together. But with Murray’s injury, a bigger priority at this juncture in the year might be getting him healthy. If rest is the only remedy for Murray’s elbow it could be an avenue Denver explores, but where the Nuggets sit in the middle of a packed Western Conference makes that decision much tougher. Denver is unequivocally a better team with Murray on the floor, even if he’s not 100%.

If the situation and schedule allows for it, Malone isn’t against giving Murray, Jokic or Paul Millsap a night or two off. But Murray might be. He hates missing games. I still remember when Murray, much to his chagrin, was forced to sit for one game in January of his sophomore season with the Nuggets due to a concussion. It was Murray’s first missed game since high school he said at the time.

“I want to play 40 (minutes). I want to play. I want to hoop. I want to be out there,” Murray said. “I don’t like sitting. I get anxious and stuff when I sit.”