How much of Colorado's success can be credited to Nathan MacKinnon?

In an Avalanche season highlighted by rookie sensation Cale Makar’s fearless dominance and success from all of Joe Sakic’s offseason additions, it’s easy to lose track of Nathan MacKinnon.

Take last week’s 7-3 blowout of the conference-leading St. Louis Blues for example. Sam Girard clearly raised his game in an uncharacteristic four-point explosion. The newly-signed defenseman stole the night’s storyline not because he had the most impressive statistics, but because Thursday’s contest marked the first time he reached the four-point mark in a single game since entering the league. Meanwhile, MacKinnon quietly put away a goal and three assists to match, marking his ninth four-plus point NHL game, per Hockey Reference.

That’s been the case all season long, too. Six of Colorado’s forwards are on pace for career years; seven if you include regular scratch Vlad Kamenev. Each player deserves to be celebrated for elevating their play in a year when major injuries have plagued the team, but the fact remains that MacKinnon’s world-class play has a trickle-down effect throughout the Avalanche lineup.

We’ve seen MacKinnon’s skillset utilized with so many different combinations of players. We’ve even seen Bednar shift him up and down the lineup mid-game to “spark” faltering forward groups. After watching the 24-year-old transform individual players and entire lines amid adversity, I began to wonder: is his presence actually contributing to statistical improvements for the players he jumpstarts, or is it simply a placebo effect once they start matching his drive and speed?

Figure 1: Expected goals share with and without MacKinnon. Only players with 20 or more even-strength minutes played with MacKinnon were included. The gray area covering the bottom portion of the graphic displays the number of goals scored while both MacKinnon and the player in question were on the ice together. Data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

Figure 1 proves that MacKinnon substantially improves the relative scoring opportunities of players who skate alongside him. Almost every Avalanche forward who’s played meaningful minutes with the 2013 number one draft pick has seen an increase in their expected goals share under 29’s watch. High expected goals share (anything above 50% suggests scoring chances in Colorado’s favor) means that players are getting to high-danger scoring areas.

When playing alongside MacKinnon, however, it means that he’s commanding enough attention from opposing teams that his linemates can go almost unnoticed when penetrating opposing defensive structures.  The gray area in Figure 1 shows, unsurprisingly, that his regular linemates (Landeskog, Rantanen, and Donskoi) have capitalized on their plethora of chances, setting up 16, 19, and 19 Avalanche goals while on the ice with 29, respectively.

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This play displays MacKinnon’s ability to open up play with his speed, edgework, and stick-handling. Taking the puck deep in the zone and then working low to high, he draws three Blues players close to him while keeping his head on a swivel in search of an open teammate. Meanwhile, all Donskoi has to do is get out of his way to open ice where MacKinnon finds him for the score. To the 27-year-old winger’s credit, he fires a bomb of a one-timer past Jordan Binnington.

MacKinnon’s lightning-fast skating, deceptive puck-handling, and deadly shot force teams to redesign their gameplan to reduce his impact, making him the ultimate play driver for any line he’s assigned to. Therefore, it’s easy to understand why Bednar recently started double-shifting 29 on the power-play. If nothing else, the number-two shooter in the league fires pucks at the net, creating chaos and rebound opportunities.

Figure 2: 5v5 score-adjusted shots per 60 minutes with and without Nathan MacKinnon.

It’s not surprising that players who are a part of a MacKinnon shift see drastic improvements to their shot rates (notice nearly all red boxes occupy the left portion of Figure 2 while the black ones generally reside far to the right). What is surprising, however, is that players reduce opposing shot rates, too. The lines connecting red to black in Figure 2 are generally upward sloping, suggesting that MacKinnon’s teammates are also more adept at reducing shots against.

Is the league’s third-highest scorer developing a shut-down defensive game in addition to his MVP caliber offense? Not exactly. But anyone who watches 29 regularly can recognize his ability to extend possessions in the offensive zone. He’ll often handle the puck nonstop while circling the zone, lulling defending players to sleep while he searches for the perfect scoring opportunity. So much time across the opposing blue line reduces opportunities for the opposing team to probe Colorado’s goaltenders. In other words, the best defense is a good offense.

And the offense doesn’t disappoint. Even without his typical Nordic linemates through a stretch lasting the entire month of November, when third-line regulars became first-line starters and AHL call-ups were regular occurrences, the Canadian superstar’s dominant pace was uninterrupted. MacKinnon recorded a modest 25 points in 14 games en route to breaking a franchise record for the most points scored by a single player in November. All of this appears to be just another month for the 500-game veteran.

So it seems like the question should be: what can’t Nathan MacKinnon do? Not only does he lead the team in scoring, but he accounts for over 16% of the team’s goals. This isn’t the NBA, where a team’s best player can regularly consume upward of 75% of the team’s minutes. MacKinnon is putting games on his back in a sport that requires 18 skaters to play meaningful minutes on any given night. So it should come as no shock that the words, “Hart Trophy” are constantly swirling around Colorado’s number-one center.

2019 has been kind to Avalanche fans. A thrilling playoff run that lasted through early May, an offseason chalked full of action, 40-plus games of high-scoring hockey, and a superstar on a mission combine to make this one of the best times to be a part of Avalanche faithful. So take this as your mid-season reminder: don’t take Nathan MacKinnon for granted. This guy is unbelievable.