How Jameer Nelson went from expendable reserve to a key part of the Nuggets rotation

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I was wrong about Jameer Nelson.

Prior to the start of the season, I had him pegged as near-certain trade fodder by the February deadline, and was fairly vocal on Twitter about this being mutually beneficial for both him and the Denver Nuggets.

This was partially based on his media day and preseason interviews, in which he made it abundantly clear that he intended to make his contribution to the team primarily as a productive player on the court, not as a player-coach to Denver’s young guards – a role which teammate Mike Miller has, by contrast, seemed to fully embrace.

Additionally, with the Nuggets’ jam-packed roster comes the need to develop their abundance of young talent. Therefore it stands to reason, or so I was recently contending, that trading Nelson –clearly not a part of Denver’s long-term future – to a team closer to contending would not only help him to compete on a more significant stage, but also help the Nuggets break the log jam and clear the way for Jamal Murray and Malik Beasley to emerge from the shadows of the bench. And while the possibility of a Nelson trade before the deadline certainly still exists, in just four games the veteran point guard has demonstrated a strong case not only against the necessity or desirability of such a move, but for it possibly being counterproductive to the extent that it could be a big mistake.

So what was I wrong about?

For starters – and here I may indulge myself in some consolation that I was not the only one who did not see this coming – Nelson has really stepped up his production from last season, and per possession has in fact been one of Denver’s best players.

Per Basketball-Reference.com, from last season to the current one Nelson has upped his per 36minute production from 10.4 points to 16.5, his 3-point percentage from .299 to .500 with 1.4 more attempts per 36, his offensive rating from 99 to 107 and defensive rating from 112 to 104, and his PER from 9.5 to 14.2.

Even if these numbers are unsustainable, it seems unlikely that as long as he remains healthy he would fully regress to last season’s comparatively poor production and efficiency. More likely, the injuries which caused him to play just 39 games and barely crack the 1000 minute mark last season were probably hampering his performance, and returning healthy and well-conditioned this season has rejuvenated his game.

It is hard to exaggerate how critical this has been as Emmanuel Mudiay has seriously struggled to get going thus far this season. For Michael Malone to have a veteran he can trust to run the offense when Mudiay is (at times almost literally) running into a brick wall has been a real windfall, and frankly the salvation of the Nuggets offense on many occasions. It also takes some of the pressure off of Mudiay to do it all, and allows for a little more breathing room in the process of his development.

But beyond the basketball contributions of Nelson’s improved performance, and perhaps even more importantly in the big picture, the Nuggets are in fact getting in him the player-coach that many fans (and presumably coaches) were expecting after all. Only in this case, one who is teaching his most powerful lessons to Denver’s rookies and sophomores by the example of his leadership and poise in his play on the court.

Just how ineffective Mudiay has been at feeding the Nuggets bigs with easy looks on cuts or at the rim has been starkly highlighted by Nelson’s proficiency in doing so. Nelson’s superiority so far in finding open looks for teammates is clearly illustrated by his assist percentage of 27.1, compared to Mudiay at 17.9. This means that in addition to Denver getting a boost in offensive efficiency when Nelson comes off the bench, he is also teaching the ever-observant Mudiay a lesson, as if to say, “watch me. This is what you need to learn how to do better.”

There has been a lot of talk about how valuable veteran leadership will be for the development and education of this very young Nuggets roster. And at least through their first four games, Nelson has been a living example of just how important the contributions of Denver’s more experienced players are, not only for the team’s short-term success but for the cultivation of their future growth and development as well.

Yes, I was wrong about Nelson. But I am thrilled to admit it and to see him performing at a level that truly demands respect and appreciation. And where I was just weeks ago a staunch advocate of the Nuggets trading him by the deadline, I would now consider it unwise to do so unless a deal comes across their table which is too good to refuse.