How conference realignment could potentially impact Colorado State

DENVER — It’s been one week since USC and UCLA announced they will be leaving the Pac-12 for the Big-10 in 2024, creating an even bigger divide between the haves and have-nots and sparking the conversation about conference realignment once again. 

Texas and Oklahoma initially ignited things last summer with their decision to jump ship from the Big-12 into a massive cash pile known as the Southeastern Conference (SEC). Subsequently, BYU, Cincinnati, Central Florida and Houston were added by the Big-12 in hope of remaining relevant in what is presently known as the power five. 

After a fairly quiet year, at least publicly, last week’s news was like a tornado that ripped through the landscape of college campuses across the country. It was shocking. And in the aftermath of it all, just about everyone West of Texas finds themselves in survival mode. 

Based on the current reports, the future of the Pac-12 looks fairly bleak. Six of the remaining 10 members are being courted by the Big-12, and while Oregon and Washington have reportedly shown skepticism about teaming up with the schools in the midwest, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah look like they may be more willing to go. 

If the “four corners” schools do in fact bolt for the Big-12, it will be interesting to see what happens with Cal, Oregon State, Stanford and Washington State. It will also be interesting to see what that might mean for some of the remaining top end G5 programs. After missing out on Big-12 expansion in 2021, Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, etc, could be attractive options for those that were left behind on the West Coast.  

Let’s discuss it all. 

What this could mean for CSU and the Mountain West

What ultimately becomes of the G5 programs that are committed to college athletics will be largely dependent on what happens with the 10 remaining schools in the Pac-12. 

Without Oregon and Washington, there is no viable future for the current iteration of the conference. The same goes for Arizona, ASU, CU and Utah leaving for the Big-12. 

If those 10 stick together though, as many of them have for 100 years, would a potential scheduling alliance with the ACC be enough to keep the West Coast-based schools in the national spotlight? 

The other question is does the league then try to bring two more schools on board to get back to 12 teams? A recent NCAA rule change made it so that conferences no longer need to have divisions to have a league title game, however, even if the intent was to lean heavily into basketball like the original Big East, the Pac-12 would still need to add at least two programs to have a realistic shot of contending for a spot in the College Football Playoff; although it should be noted that change is likely coming to that format too. 

As far as who the Pac-12 could end up pursuing for expansion, there are a couple of things that we must consider. 

The first is whether or not the conference would remain committed to emphasizing academia over all else. Traditionally the Pac-12 has prided itself on academic excellence, which is why despite having national football brands, teams like BYU and Boise State were never added. 

But in the current CFB landscape, where nobody seems to have an issue with California schools making trips across the country in November, the facade that these schools actually care about what is best for student-athletes has gone out the window, so I’d be surprised if the Pac-12 stuck to its original standards. At this point it’s all about TV money and trying to maximize your piece of the pie. Because of this, you would have to think that the Pac-12 would take a hard look at the top teams in the Mountain West, AAC, and maybe even the Sun Belt. 

From CSU’s perspective specifically, the odds of getting into the Pac-12 if the current 10 remain tethered together do not seem good. The Pac-12 would still have the Denver market through CU and after a half decade’s worth of coming up short, it seems highly unlikely that CSU would move the needle enough to justify their inclusion. 

The unfortunate reality is that while the program is trending in the right direction under Jay Norvell, failing to establish consistent success from 2015-2021 was a huge missed window. It’s why CSU did not even factor into the conversation for Big-12 expansion last year. And it’s why the Rams are not a more popular candidate being floated right now, despite having a respected university located in a beloved college town and phenomenal facilities to boot. 

Having said all of that, if CU did leave for the Big-12 along with the Arizona schools and Utah, there could be a scenario in which CSU ends up in a better conference than the current version of the MWC. One example is if the Mountain West swayed some of the Pac-12 leftovers to join, for instance. Another is if a new league were to form altogether. It’s been nearly 25 years since eight schools left the original WAC and helped form the MWC. While I personally believe there is strength in numbers, some of the better-supported schools in the league could find a way to branch off and create something new with say Oregon State and Washington State. Cal and Stanford would obviously be great to team up with as well, assuming of course that they do not view themselves too highly to be in a conference with the likes of Boise State or SDSU. 

There are obviously legal hurdles to factor into the conversation. If 50-75% of the current MWC were to try and form a new league with the Pac-12 leftovers, the teams that get left behind would surely put up a fight. It has not seemed to stop anyone else in the last couple of years though, so in my potentially ill-informed opinion, if there is a will then there is a way. And while I do hate the idea of losing even more regional rivalries, there is definitely an argument that schools like New Mexico and San Jose State just do not bring enough to the table in 2022 and that including them would only take away from the programs helping generate all the interest/money. 

As someone that has watched and supported CSU for his entire life, I have always found a sense of comradery amongst the fans in the MWC. Don’t get me wrong, trash talking and petty interactions are a regular occurrence, but there has also always been an understanding that we are in this together. Air Force, CSU, UNM, UNLV, SDSU and Wyoming have a connected history that goes back decades. So, while I have long wanted the Rams to get a chance to compete in a power conference, I have never supported the idea of leaving simply for the sake of shaking things up. A great example is when the AAC reportedly approached Air Force and CSU to join last summer, the thought of leaving all our rivals to play South Florida and Navy seemed asinine. 

Call me old fashioned, but even in the current madness, I still firmly believe that regional conferences are the most logical approach to keeping college football interesting and relevant for years to come. We’ll get into that a little more shortly. The one thing I do know for sure though, is that CSU cannot be sitting on its hands. It may be too late to get into the Big-12, an idea that seemed fairly realistic not all that long ago, but there is certainly still more to be desired for Ram Nation. Whether it’s helping convince some of the Pac-12 leftovers to join the Mountain West, or driving the push to form something new altogether, CSU needs to be extremely active. The school has invested way too much money to still be playing in the current iteration of the MWC when the movement stops and all of the dust settles. 

Here are a couple of hypothetical options for CSU’s future:

Hypothetical Conference 1 (WAC 2.0)

Air Force, Boise State, Cal, CSU, Fresno State, Oregon State, San Diego State, Stanford, UNLV, Utah State, Washington State, Wyoming

Hypothetical Conference 2 (Merger)

The current 12 members of the Mountain West + Pac-12 additions 

Hypothetical Conference 3 (Best of the rest)

Air Force, Boise State, Cal, CSU, Fresno State, Memphis, Oregon State, San Diego State, SMU, Stanford, UNLV, Utah State, Washington State, Wyoming

College football is losing sight of what makes it special to so many

As we have already covered, until we know for sure what is happening with the 10 remaining Pac-12 schools, there are honestly a million different scenarios that we could hypothesize and break down. 

The last thing I want to address though, is that while college football is a business and has always been driven by money, in the pursuit of these massive TV deals, I fear that we will lose the mystique that made it so special in the first place. 

For the vast majority of fans across the country, the hope each fall is not to win a National Championship. Sure, it would be amazing if the opportunity presented itself, but most don’t fool themselves into thinking that they realistically are going to be able to hang with the Alabamas and Ohio States of the world. The hope for most fans is simply to be competitive and to win the games that matter most. Typically those are regional rivalries or matchups with unique history like USC vs. Notre Dame. 

By making these super conferences, we will end up with some unique matchups between big programs that would not have been possible in the past. Some of them will be really great for TV, there’s no doubt about it. A lot of those games in November are going to feel like some of the current bowl games do though, exhibition contests at best. The thing that makes college football so important to the fans of the schools that don’t have the resources to hang with the big boys is the impact it has in our everyday lives.  The Border War matters so much because we all know Wyoming supporters and get to go back and forth about the rivalry with them, not because it’s going to impact the CFB Playoff selection process. 

The further we get away from the pageantry, the history, the rivalries, I can’t help but wonder how it impacts interest in the sport as a whole moving forward. The product will never be as clean as the NFL, not even with these super conferences. A decade from now, when the novelty of something new wears off and games are being played in empty stadiums at wonky times because the only thing that matters is TV revenue, all while the top 10 continue to dominate the rest of the field, I wonder if everyone will look around and regret the change. I wonder if they will miss talking trash with the fans of schools they’ve known their whole lives, having the chance to make a short road trip for an away game, etc.

Of course, maybe I’m wrong and the game will grow positively. Maybe right now I’m just a dejected alumnus of a G5 school and cannot see the big picture. If the current direction of the game is good for college football as a whole though, man, is it tough to see. 

I fell in love with college football because of CSU-Wyoming, the Rocky Mountain Showdown and the old Big-12. I fell in love with the fight songs, the chants, the marching bands. I was drawn to the tradition, the passion, and in some cases, the downright hatred between fans. I wish the big wigs at Fox and ESPN seemed to understand even a little bit what makes this game so great.