How and why the Colorado Rockies should retool rather than rebuild

It has been a season for quoting the late, great Yogi Bera.

The Colorado Rockies have found themselves once again in a situation perfectly encapsulated by another one of Hall of Fame catchers’ gems.

When you come to a fork in the road, take it.

The 2019 season has not gone the way anyone associated with the club has hoped, even as recently as a month ago when they were still right in the hunt for a Wild Card spot.

And while crazier things have happened in the game of baseball than a team rallying back into the race from seven games behind with 55 to play, the Rockies must also be honest about their chances to make a dramatic turnaround from an abysmal stretch of play going into and coming out of the All-Star break.

With the trade deadline lingering, calls are coming in from various members of the media and fan base to sell off major pieces of the team. A few holdouts still wouldn’t mind seeing the Rockies make a bold addition, even if it ends up being a move more aimed at helping next season rather than turning this one around.

One thing most people seem to agree on: the club needs to start making transactions, one way or the other. Moving forward with the exact same cast of characters is a good way to invite the exact same problems.

At the same time, Colorado has a strong core intact that powered them to back-to-back postseason appearances in the last two years and most of them are under team control for the next few years at a good-to-great value.

While it’s tempting to look at a team that has played objectively bad baseball in the month of July and reach the conclusion that they need to tear the whole thing down, a total rebuild doesn’t make sense if you look outside the context of a few weeks when everything that could go wrong (other than injuries) did go wrong.

So the Colorado finds themself at a fork in the road. Their record suggests they should sell. Their recent history and the quality players they have to build around suggest they should, at least at some point soon, buy in anticipation of competing in 2020.

Then the question remains if they should wave the white flag on 2019 and make deals that purposefully hurt the team’s chances to win down the stretch this season for a team that has made late-season runs a part of their DNA.

But there is a middle-ground answer to all of these questions. And not in a wishy-washy, one-foot-in, one-foot-out, no sense of direction kind of way.

The Rockies can buy and sell. Retool, but not rebuild. They can set their sights on next season without giving up on this one. Keep the core. Shop everyone else. Get aggressive with depth.

The Core

First, let’s define who we mean when we talk about the core.

You have the four All-Stars who are clearly the driving force of the Rockies’ offense: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and David Dahl.

Each of these players are a star level talent and are controlled long-term. With the exception of Blackmon, these are all players in their physical prime. And though Charlie is a bit older and slower than he used to be – aren’t we all? – he has shown over and over again a willingness to adapt and continue to be a weapon at the plate.

While it is fair to entertain notions of trading him, it is also more than fair to see him as a potential force to build a lineup around for the next few years.

After those four position players comes the emerging Ryan McMahon who has been one of the few bright spots for the Rox over the last month or so.

Since June 27, a sample of 26 games, McMahon is hitting .310/.378/.563 with five home runs. More than the results, he has been putting together much better at bats each time out: working counts, laying off tough pitches, taking walks, and lining up mistakes.

Additionally, while there is still some polishing to do defensively at second base, he has taken to the position exceptionally considering he still has less than two years of experience playing it at any level. He has shown that his intangibles and athleticism will play up and the best thing that could happen to the Rockies future in the final stretch this season would be McMahon erasing any doubt about whether or not he belongs in this category.

Before we get to the pitchers, there is one more everyday player that ought to be considered: Tony Wolter.

The man with the ‘stache can absolutely be a starting catcher on a championship team, but he may also be better suited as a super backup behind someone with a bit more thump in the bat. He gives the Rockies the luxury of choosing to go after a high-end catcher in the off-season or spend those resources elsewhere.

The 27-year-old former infielder can be counted on to catch a great game defensively, emerging this season as one of the best in the NL behind the plate, and he’s also made himself into a tough out at the plate.

You might not build a team around him on the field, but you can build a clubhouse around him.

On the mound, we have to start with Jon Gray.

The Wolf of Blake Street appears to have come out of his dark ages and into his renaissance. He has easily been the most consistent and stable member of the Rockies rotation this year and has dominated at Coors Field. After all the trials and tribulations, it looks like Gray is finally settling into his role as a very good major league starter.

Still in his first year of arbitration and standing as the shining light at the end of the tunnel for other struggling young Colorado pitchers, Gray has gone from being a total puzzle to a rock for the rotation to coalesce around.

And then there’s Kyle Freeland and German Marquez. Their rollercoaster seasons will be the subject of a future piece because there is just so much to discuss but one way or another they are important to Colorado’s future.

The strongest argument in favor of a rebuild is one based on the belief that neither of these two players can return to being competent pitchers. If these guys can’t get it going, the Rockies really are in deep trouble and no amount of maneuvering is going to be able to fix it quickly.

It’s just a bit too early to reach that conclusion.

In the bullpen, Scott Berg is the only one to consider as part of the Rockies core.

In his first year of arbitration, making just $1.3 million, Oberg has been among the best relievers in baseball. He won’t be a free agent until after the 2022 season.

It’s always worth remembering that Arenado can opt out of his deal after 2021, so it would be best to compete within this window of contention around these 10 players.

How?

Shopping Everyone Else

Ian Desmond and Daniel Murphy could fairly be considered vital parts of the engine that drives the current version of the Rockies, but you would be hard-pressed to find too many people that would include them in the core.

Both are relative newcomers to the organization, neither drafted or developed by the club, and both have had their tenures colored a bit by injuries and disappointing performance.

That would normally be a recipe for being untradeable, but both players have shown production and promise this year and would hold value for the right team at the right price.

The same could be said for a trio of veteran relievers in Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw and, perhaps most interestingly, Wade Davis.

No trade of any of these players is likely to upset the fan base as each has had many frustrating moments over their tenures in Denver and none has lived up to their contract.

That said, like Desmond and Murphy, they are past the bulk of their deals and each has peripheral numbers that suggest if put in the right situation they could help out a contender.

Davis in particular, who has massive splits and a long resume of coming up huge in big games, could represent the most extreme version of the dynamics at play here.

He has some money on that deal, but not a ton going into a potential final year; a mutual option could be vested for 2021 if he finishes 30 games next season. Moving him doesn’t torpedo their chances for the rest of the season if they hang onto Oberg as a closer.

Sure, each of these vets could theoretically help the Rockies compete next year (or even this year) but the likeliehood that they do so is at best on par with the likelihood that such improvement comes from younger players taking a step up in production: Peter Lambert in the rotation and Carlos Estevez, Jairo Diaz, Jesus Tinoco, and Yency Almonte in the bulllen.

If the Rockies aren’t sure about any of these players, it’s all the more reason to clear some space and give them innings for the rest of the season to find out and help shape priorities going into the off season.

In the meantime, they can get whatever resources possible in terms of prospects or salary relief, none of which is likely to be individually franchise-shifting but all of which in conjunction could give the Rockies enough to address their areas of need before the start of next season.

Getting Aggressive

Now comes the tricky part. If they can manage to clear some roster and salary space while hanging onto the pieces that make them who they are, they will be much in the same position they were going into the 2017 season.

And with many of the same needs, primarily in the bullpen, the goal will be to spend the money they have on arms that perform better than the ones they got the last time they splurged.

It would probably even be worth looking at adding a solid reliable starter and they have enough prospects to swing such a deal, though doing so in the winter rather than right now unless the perfect deal comes along would be best.

There are lots of potential fixes that turn this team right back into the contenders they are at their very core.

But the easiest thing to do is either nothing at all or tear it all apart in anger. Neither will be what this group or their fans deserve.

So Jeff Bridich and company must get to the hard work of making a lot of moves around the edges of the roster, none of which are likely to excite the media or fans at large and will be criticized as “spinning wheels.” Ultimately, it will be the quiet, necessary steps toward redemption.

Buy? Sell? Try to compete now? Try to compete in the future? Build around young stars or proven vets?

When it comes to the 2019 season and the course of the franchise’s future, the Colorado Rockies are at a fork in the road.

And it’s time they take it.