How a 10-second sequence may have crushed the Nuggets' playoff hopes

The Denver Nuggets’ 125-124 loss in Houston Monday was nearly one of their most impressive wins of the year.

After Will Barton‘s three-point play with 42 seconds remaining and a James Harden miss 11 seconds later, the Nuggets were clinging to a one-point lead at 124-123, with the ball, and 30 seconds left in regulation.

It would have been a monumental win for Denver. A victory without Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler over the third-seeded Rockets, who just beat the Nuggets in dramatic fashion Saturday at Pepsi Center.

Instead, what unfolded over the game’s final minute and really the last eight seconds of regulation will keep Michael Malone tossing and turning during the Nuggets’ two-hour flight back to Denver and could very well keep the Nuggets out of the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season.

Here’s how Monday night’s game was lost:

Denver 124 Houston 123 | 42.1 seconds remaining

After Barton’s three-point play, Houston, looking for a two-for-one puts the ball in their Most Valuable Player candidate’s hands and lets Harden go to work.

Denver gets away with one here. Harden splits Juancho Hernangomez and Gary Harris, gets all the way to the hoop and somehow misses a gimme, as Nikola Jokic doesn’t offer much of a contest.

Denver 124 Houston 123 | 33 seconds remaining

Clinging to a one-point lead with a chance to take the shot clock down to around seven seconds, the Nuggets are faced with perhaps their most important possession of the season. A score here and the Rockets are likely forced to go for three and the tie with not a ton of time remaining.

Instead, what followed was a sequence that showed shades of a late-January loss in Minnesota where Jameer Nelson shouldered much of the blame for a late-game sequence and subsequent miss with Denver down two and under ten seconds remaining.

This time, it was again Nelson with the ball in his hands as Michael Malone elected not to use a timeout for the second-straight game on a critical late, fourth-quarter possession. That decision was warranted Saturday against the Rockets as Barton was able to get off a great look in the paint, but here, with more time remaining and Houston able to set their defense as Nelson stalled near halfcourt, a timeout could have led to a better executed halfcourt set.

I’ve been a staunch defender of Nelson all season. He’s steadied the ship at point guard, lead the best offense in the league since Dec. 15 in assists and hit key shots in key moments for the Nuggets all season. But a timeout could have yielded a better look.

In the last five minutes or overtime of games this season, when the scoring margin has been within five points, the Nuggets are now shooting a league-worst 35.6 percent from the field. They’re 12-21 in such games. Nelson is shooting 10-31 (32.3 percent) this season in those situations.

A timeout would have put Denver in a better position.

Denver 124 Houston 123 | Seven seconds remaining

Off Nelson’s miss Harden, behind a 20-foot pancake block/hold from Nene, sprints coast-to-coast for what turned out to be the game-winning layup.

You can say that Nene should have been called for an offensive foul, that Hernangomez took a bad line to cut off Harden, or that Barton got squeezed between stopping Harden, as Nelson for a split-second looked like he could step in front, or jump out to cover Trevor Ariza in the corner.

Houston 125 Denver 124 | 2.4 seconds remaining

The halfcourt lob has killed the Nuggets this season. Who can forget Portland’s heave to force overtime in Denver’s home opener? It’s a loss that could give the Trail Blazers an extremely important tiebreaker over the Nuggets come playoff time.

Denver tried a lob of their own for their final gasp against Houston. It was exactly what the Nuggets wanted, according to Malone.

We figured they were switching a lot going into that last play. So try to get Mason Plumlee from Nikola, who’s our best passer with size in case they put size on the ball, we wanted a big guy taking it out. Obviously the pass was a little bit short so it wasn’t able to get to him. But yeah, it was supposed to be Nikola to Plumlee at the basket.

It’s a risky play, one that Denver hasn’t executed this season. Harris, who was cutting hard to the corner, was cut off by Lou Williams and Barton, who was open for a second coming off a quasi-Plumlee screen, wouldn’t have been able to generate anything of quality with just 2.4 left.

Jokic’s pass was late.

The lob should have been thrown here:

But instead was thrown here:

And Plumlee was already under the rim when he caught it:

In the end, it was the Nuggets’ second defeat at the hands of the Rockets in three days by a combined five points.

Because of their schedule to end the season, which includes eight of their last 12 on the road, the Nuggets aren’t favorites for the eighth seed anymore, even with a half-game lead over Portland.

The Trail Blazers have a home-heavy slate and are playing their best basketball of the season at the right time. The Nuggets are currently without two key contributors, in Gallinari and Chandler, and take on the Cavaliers at home Wednesday.

A potential playoff spot, a comfortable notion just two weeks ago, now looks as grim as the Nuggets’ late-game execution over their past two losses.