Hold your horses? Examining the two sides to the Broncos’ hot start

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Beat a Hall-of-Fame quarterback, check.

Beat the best running back in the NFL, check.

Lead the league in rushing, check.

Lead the league in passing touchdowns, check.

In the first two weeks of the 2017 season, the Denver Broncos have achieved all of these tasks, taking the league, and nation, by surprise.

To say the start to the team’s first two games have been anything but flat-out impressive would be selling them short. At 2-0, the Broncos have looked absolutely dominant on both sides of the ball for nearly all 120 minutes played thus far.

With a squeaky clean record after the first eighth of the season, it’s hard not to get excited about what this team could be, and rightfully so.

So is it time to book the plane ticket to Minneapolis—the site of Super Bowl LII—yet? With snow and cold weather still months away there’s reason to pull the reigns of caution in, but there’s also reason to jump on the bandwagon that is slowly starting to spread around the country with this team.

The reason for hesitancy

Started hot last year before missing playoffs

Last year, the defending Super Bowl champions were sitting in this exact same spot after the first eighth of the season: 2-0. In fact, the team would go on to start 4-0 before losing their first game of the season, going on to finish the year 9-7, missing the playoffs for the first time in John Elway’s tenure leading the team.

But what’s eye-opening, and almost eerie, is how similar the first two games of 2016 and 2017 were won by the Broncos. First and foremost, Denver’s first two games were both at home each year. Additionally, the way each game played out was very similar to one another in nearly every statistical category.

Game 1

Game 2

In fact, the first game of the season in each year ended in the exact same fashion: a missed field goal by the opposing team to seal Denver’s victory. The Broncos then followed each of those close victories with a dominant performance.

Through the first two games of last season, the running game looked much improved, just like it does at the start of this season. In 2016, Denver averaged 141 yards per game through the first two games. In 2017, they lead the league in rushing, averaging 159 yards per game.

Immediately after Denver’s hot start rushing the ball last year, they drastically fell off, putting up consecutive performances of 52, 89, 84 and 84 total yards on the ground, finishing the season as the sixth-worst run defense averaging 92.8 yards per game.

It’s fair to be encouraged with the way Denver ran the ball in the first two games of this season, but just last year would tell you, it doesn’t mean the running game will be this dominant—or even dominant—all year.

AFC West

Of the eight 2-0 teams in the NFL, three of them currently reside in the AFC West. Through the first two weeks of the season, Denver’s division looks to be the best division in football, again. Even if the Broncos truly are much improved, it doesn’t look like the Kansas City Chiefs or Oakland Raiders took a step back from last year, either.

With four games still left against the two playoff teams from last season, Denver’s brutal division doesn’t do them any favors.

Small sample size

Statistically speaking, the weakest part of the Broncos through the first two games has been their pass defense. Yes, the Broncos pass defense. Currently, they rank in the middle of the pack in terms of passing yards per game allowed. Although most of this has come in the fourth quarter and hasn’t been a testament to the “No Fly Zone” taking a step back, it shows that a two-game sample size is too small to judge a team after.

Much like it’s fair to say Denver’s pass defense will continue to climb the ranks as the season goes on, it’s fair to say the possibility the other three major statistical parts of the team will decline, even a little, are probable. Now, this doesn’t mean the Broncos can’t stay above average in those other categories, it just means you have to look at both sides of the coin.

The reason for excitement

Trevor Siemian

There’s been no fluke to Trevor Siemian’s hot start to 2017. So far, from 2016 to 2017, the second-year starter has shown he’s taken the major step needed from his first-year of starting to his second.

In the first two games of 2016, Siemian looked like a first-year starter, throwing one touchdown to three interceptions. In 2017, he looks like a different quarterback, throwing six touchdowns to two interceptions with an additional touchdown on the ground.

“I think Trevor is in complete control of the offense,” Broncos’ head coach Vance Joseph said. “His ball placement is excellent… The more he plays, the better he is going to get. In my opinion, he is in total control of the offense right now.”

While Siemian showed encouraging steps last season, he was never said to be “in total control of the offense.” With the most important position on the football field improved, that’s incredibly encouraging to the success of the entire team.

Improved run defense built on a foundation

As much as Siemian has improved, the run defense has shown even more improvement. Last season, the run defense was unquestionably the weakest part of the team—giving up the fifth-most rushing yards per game (130.3).

Through the first two games of last season, the defense gave up an average of 120 yards per game on their way to a poor season. So far this season, they’ve given up 52 yards per game on the ground, and it hasn’t been by chance. Joseph pointed to two reasons on why the run defense has taken a significant jump of improvement from last year.

“I think it’s personnel driven, with signing [Domata] Peko and getting bigger. [Adam] Gotsis, obviously, stepping up and playing well,” he explained with pep in his voice. “It’s also schematically driven—how we are fitting the run now, it’s different. Our linebackers are getting downhill faster. It’s taking the pressure off of the nose, the five and the three-technique. It’s both.”

The Broncos have plenty of reason to believe the excellent start against the run will continue for the season.

“We’re healthy. Gotsis is all the way healthy,” safety Darian Stewart said. I think [Derek] Wolfe is being Wolfe. I think those three guys—Shelby [Harris] has played big for us. Those guys that we added onto the squad are helping us.”

Attitude

Instead of forgetting about the collapse last year, the Broncos aren’t shy to use it as fuel—and a learning tool—for this year. Stewart said the 4-0 start last year before going on to drop seven of their last twelve is “a big talk,” adding, “We can’t get complacent. We have to be ready to work every week.”

“I mean we were 4-0 last year and didn’t make the playoffs,” running back C.J. Anderson said when talking about the similar start to last season. “We all know what it feels like to have success and things make a turn. It’s up to us leaders and veterans to make sure everybody in that locker room is taking it one week, one practice, one play and one day at a time.”

Ignoring last season’s demise doesn’t help in any way. Using it as a tool to avoid the same mistake is an encouraging attitude for a team riding a hot 2-0 start.