History is against the Avalanche at the 25th pick

Okay, let’s try this again.

The Avs were all set to select 24th because of division winners and such and then the NHL decided to ignore them completely and pushed the Avs to the 25th pick instead of 24.

Throwing out everything we learned about the history of the 24th pick, we’ll just run down the same parameters but with pick 25.

I’m going back to 2005 to get a fuller picture of success and failure from the spot. How successful have teams been drafting out of that slot?

2019 – Connor McMichael, Washington: TBD
2018 – Dominik Bokk, St. Louis: TBD
2017 – Ryan Poehling, Montreal: 28 GP/4 G/1 A/5 Pts

It’s still too early for these guys but they’ve had three very different paths so far. McMichael had a fantastic season in the OHL and could push for the NHL next year. Bokk’s time in Sweden has not gone as hoped and the Blues might have maximized his value when they dealt him to Carolina last year. Poehling has four goals but three came in his first NHL game. After that, he’s struggled to find a home in the NHL but will get another chance next year as the Canadiens continue to search for answers at center.

2016 – Riley Tufte, Dallas: 0 GP

Tufte is in a strange place. If we’re being honest, this is very close to bust territory. He was a disappointment in college and his first pro year saw him register just 15 points in 53 games. That said, the Stars are smart to wait on a 6’6″ forward who skates like Tufte does because if he ever puts it all together, look out. He needs to show major growth, however, because since being drafted he has been nothing but unrealized potential.

2015 – Jack Roslovic, Winnipeg: 180 GP/26 G/41 A/67 Pts

I’ll admit a major soft spot for Roslovic. He was a guy I really liked in his draft year and have kept waiting to take the leap with the Jets. They badly need a 2C and Roslovic just has not taken the job. While he’s the first decent NHL player on this list, he’s not lived up to his full billing. He’s still a solid player but might end up just being decent depth more than the impact player he looked like in 2015.

2014 – David Pastrnak, Boston: 390 GP/180 G/199 A/379 Pts

The only superstar on this list, Pastrnak is frequently brought up by frustrated Avalanche fans when remembering the 2014 draft. The Avs had the 23rd pick and selected Conner Bleackley, who has yet to play a single NHL game. Two picks later, Boston took Pastrnak, who has blossomed into the right wing on one of the NHL’s very best lines. He’s the engine of the next era of Bruins hockey and a legit superstar.

2013 – Michael McCarron, Montreal: 69 GP/2 G/6 A/8 Pts

With incredible size at 6’6″ and 230 pounds, McCarron’s calling card was always as a potential power forward who could dominate down the middle if his game caught up with his neverending growth spurts. Eventually, however, he did stop growing and unfortunately for the Canadiens, so did his game. McCarron’s best shot came in 16-17 when he had five points in 31 games.

2012 – Jordan Schmaltz, St. Louis: 42 GP/0 G/5 A/5 Pts

The first defenseman on this list, Schmaltz never quite put it all together for the Blues. He had some nice offensive seasons in the AHL but couldn’t put together the all-around game when he got looks in the NHL. He’s continued bouncing around the AHL but it appears he’s destined to be an AHL guy who got nothing more than a couple of cups of coffee in the NHL.

2011 – Stuart Percy, Toronto: 12 GP/0 G/3 A/3 Pts

This didn’t work out at all for the second defenseman on the list. There weren’t any major injuries along the way and Percy was never traded. This was simply a case of a player not working out, no doubt a major disappointment for Percy, who grew up a diehard Maple Leafs fan.

2010 – Quinton Howden, Florida: 97 GP/10 G/7 A/17 Pts

The first of two Howden brothers selected in the first round, Quinton never really found his footing in the NHL and has been a productive player in the KHL the last several years. His career may not have panned out in the NHL but after suffering a severe leg injury early in his life that was expected to limit his athletic potential, Howden getting to where he has is still certainly a success story in itself. Being an NHL GM isn’t about feel-good stories but I can certainly appreciate them.

2009 – Jordan Caron, Boston: 157 GP/12 G/16 A/28 Pts

Avs fans might remember this name, though it certainly won’t be fondly. After being acquired at the trade deadline in 2015, Caron appeared in 19 games for the Avs, even playing alongside Matt Duchene for a brief moment. In those 19 games, Caron posted zero points and just two penalty minutes. He had an intriguing combination of size and skating but absolutely no idea what to do with either. He was last seen in Switzerland’s top pro league.

2008 – Greg Nemisz, Calgary: 15 GP/0 G/1 A/1 Pts

Despite a prolific junior career that saw him win multiple OHL championships and a Memorial Cup, Nemisz never took the next step to become a productive NHL player. Injuries played a significant role in his stalled development as he suffered major injuries in three consecutive seasons, the last of which led him to volunteering as a video coach for the Oshawa Generals during their 2015 Memorial Cup run. Once healthy, Nemisz chose to retire from playing and go into coaching full-time as he joined the Generals’ staff as an assistant.

2007 – Patrick White, Vancouver: 0 GP

Once a finalist for Minnesota’s Mr. Hockey (he lost to Ryan McDonagh), White was known for a lethal wrist shot. It never translated to any high level of hockey, however, as White finished a four-year career at Minnesota and moved immediately to Europe, where he bounced around and played in leagues I didn’t even know existed until I looked him up. A well-traveled career that simply didn’t include professional hockey in North America. White was selected in between Mikael Backlund and David Perron.

2006 – Patrik Berglund, St. Louis: 717 GP/170 G/156 A/326 Pts

Finally, another NHL player! Berglund enjoyed a lengthy career as a productive bottom-six player, ripping off a string of 30-point seasons. He was a good two-way player for the Blues and very well-liked in the locker room and by the city of St. Louis until his trade to Buffalo in the Ryan O’Reilly deal. Berglund now plays back in his native Sweden.

2005 – Andrew Cogliano, Edmonton: 1012 GP/165 G/234 A/399 Pts

Recently seen giving Conor Timmins another potential head injury, Cogliano has carved out a lengthy career despite being just 5’10” and 180 pounds. While he wasn’t quite skilled enough to be a consistent top-six player, Cogliano was a regular 10+ goal scorer during his prime and even broke 40 points twice in his career. He found a way to use his great skating to great effect as a role player. If the Avs could guarantee they got a player of Cogliano’s caliber at 25, they’d take it in a heartbeat.

What did we learn?

The history of the 24th pick was a lot more successful, for one, but that doesn’t mean talent isn’t available at the 25th pick. Several of the players who didn’t work out on this list watched the players picked at 26 go on to have good NHL careers.

In fact, players such as Evgeny Kuznetsov, Philip Danault, Shea Theodore, and Kyle Palmieri are among the players selected 26th. That means Colorado simply has to defy the history of the 25th pick and pick the good players instead of the soon-to-be busts. That easy, right?