Here's why the Broncos' run-pass imbalance last week wasn't what it seemed to be

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Let there be no doubt: Last Sunday, the run was working.

The Broncos averaged 6.2 yards per carry and 3.5 yards per pass play in their 23-7 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. In the first half, with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm, they averaged 6.1 yards per rushing attempt and 2.8 yards per pass play.

But per-carry and per-pass-play yardage doesn’t tell the story.

In the end, it was getting off schedule.

It’s not that the Broncos had a total absence of production on their first-and-10 and first-and-goal plays. But in the first three quarters, 36.8 percent of those plays — 7 of 19 — went for one yard, no gain or lost yardage.

And then, more often than not, they couldn’t get back on-schedule — usually because of pass plays that went awry, perhaps none more than Bridgewater’s deep, second-down attempt to Albert Okwuegbunam that sailed through the second-year tight end’s hands.

“Well, I think early on, we missed on some big passes early, so then you run to try to keep on schedule, and then we had some long third-down situations, and typically, if you’re staying on the field and converting third downs, you get more runs,” offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur said. “That just goes without saying, and you feel more comfortable doing it.

“We’ve been a team that’s been able to drive the ball, which means when you’re running the ball, you’re making yards. It didn’t go our way the other night. I’ve got to be better. We’ve got to be better. We’ve just gotta play better than we did against Baltimore and get back on the stick.”

So, is it about play-calling? Or is it just about execution?

The data from last Sunday compared with the season to date points to the latter.

Let’s consider the run-pass balance during on-schedule plays in the first three quarters of games in which the margin is two scores either way, with data from SportRadar.com.

FIRST-AND-10 (OR FEWER)

From this distance, the Broncos have equal run-pass balance so far this season: Forty runs and 40 pass plays, according to pro-football-refrence.com.

SECOND-AND-1-TO-8

From this distance, the offense can still be considered to be on schedule. The Broncos have run on 44.1 percent of these snaps; through four weeks, this percentage ranked 22nd.

THIRD-AND-1-TO-4

Thirty-one teams have run the football at least once in this scenario this season. The exception? The Broncos. They’ve had seven plays of third-and-4 or shorter with the game within two scores in quarters 1-3, and they’ve passed on all of them — including on their only opportunity last Sunday, which resulted in Bridgewater’s touchdown pass to tight end Noah Fant.

So, overall, in these on-schedule plays with the game within two scores, the Broncos have run 45.5 percent of the time, 23rd-most in the NFL.

Sunday, the Broncos ran 21 of these on-schedule plays in the first half. Nine were pass plays, for an average of 6.6 yards per play. Twelve were runs, for an average of 6.3 yards per attempt. Just one of those 12 runs went for no gain or a loss of yardage, while four of the nine pass plays did.

The second half was different. Prior to the final two-minute drill drive, the Broncos had just eight on-schedule plays after halftime. The six pass plays resulted in an average loss of 0.2 yards, thanks to a pair of sacks on those on-schedule snaps; a pair of runs averaged 2.5 yards per attempt. This includes fourth-quarter snaps prior to the two-minute warning.

Shurmur said Thursday that veering away from the run after halftime had nothing to do with the concussion that forced Bridgewater out of action and thrust Drew Lock back onto the field.

“No, and I don’t think that was the narrative that I had in my mind, getting away from the running game,” Shurmur said. “We weren’t converting and staying on the field, so you don’t get to do all the things that you’d like to do.”

So, for the sample size of quarters 1-3 last Sunday for on-schedule plays with the margin within two scores, the Broncos ran as often as they threw: 13 times apiece. A perfect 50-50 split of on-schedule snaps.

Why is that significant?

Because the Broncos’ run-pass distribution in this scenario was exactly the same in Week 4 as it was in the first three weeks as a collective: a perfect 50-50, with 27 runs and 27 passes in those three games.

But Sunday, the run was more successful. Two third-quarter sacks meant that the Broncos averaged just 3.5 yards per on-schedule pass play and 6.3 yards during the on-schedule runs.

What’s more, 12 of the on-schedule runs in quarters 1-3 gained positive yardage. Ten of them gained at least 3 yards; six of them saw gains of at least 6 yards. Meanwhile, the 13 on-schedule pass plays before the fourth quarter saw just five gain positive yardage.

The Broncos did go away from the run in the second half.

But in general, Shurmur’s play-calling distribution did give Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams chances and was in line with the work of the Broncos’ three wins to open the regular season.

“So, I’ve said it all along: I believe in running the football,” Shurmur said. “We have running backs that deserve to get their touches, and we’ll continue to do that.”