Here's why more than just the 2021 playoffs could be on the line for Vic Fangio in the next three weeks

** Edited to reflect the results of Week 16 **

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — A year ago at this time, Vic Fangio’s Broncos were 5-10 and playing out the string of another lost season. So, their 7-8 mark at the same point this season represents an improvement.

But as of Tuesday the Broncos’ chances of making a postseason field that now encompasses more teams than at any point other than the 1982 strike-shortened season is less than 0.1 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.

That’s a 1,000-to-1 chance to change the narrative and prevent Fangio from being the latest to join a club of coaches who helmed their team into a third season — but didn’t make the playoffs in any of those first three years.

And the past shows that while things CAN get better, no coach who took over his team after the AFL-NFL merger has ever won a Super Bowl with that club after missing the playoffs in his first three seasons there. It did happen for Tom Landry, who began with the Dallas Cowboys in 1960, and Chuck Noll, who made his NFL head-coaching debut with Pittsburgh in 1969.

But the record for post-merger coaches to open with three seasons out of the playoffs is mixed.

USUALLY, THREE YEARS IS ENOUGH TO KNOW

In the 21st century, 27 coaches got through at least part of their third season without going to the playoffs, from Las Vegas’ Jon Gruden last year to Carolina’s George Seifert and San Diego’s Mike Riley in 2001.

Five of the 27 were dismissed during their third season on the job. Twelve were sacked at the end of Year 3. And of the other nine, six of them were out after the following season, with just two even making it to the playoffs at some point after opening with three years out of the playoffs.

Now let’s go further back — all the way to the AFL-NFL merger of 1970.

Since then, 76 coaches have at least made it part of the way through their third seasons without going to the playoffs.

Of those 76:

• 17 were dismissed before the end of their third season;
• 23 more were dismissed after their third season;
• 36 made it to a fourth season, but only 14 (38.9 percent) of those eventually took that team to the postseason, and just one-third of them (12 of 36) had winning records for their tenures from Season 4 onward;
• Six of those 36 coaches (16.7 percent) who got a fourth season took their teams as far as the conference-championship game. Two of them eventually took their team to the Super Bowl (Sam Wyche, Cincinnati; Jeff Fisher, Tennessee)
• None hoisted the Lombardi Trophy with those teams, although one did go on to win six Super Bowls: Bill Belichick. But he did that in New England, not in Cleveland, where he followed three seasons without a playoff appearance by getting as far as the divisional round in 1994, before everything collapsed in 1995, the Browns moved and he was dismissed after a 5-11 season.

So, more often than not, if you don’t make the playoffs in years 1-3, you will have beaten the odds to get there in Season 4 or later.

Like it or loathe it, fair or unfair, this is life in the NFL.

So, for Fangio to escape from this discussion, the Broncos will need a miracle; two wins and a specific set of circumstances. It is like passing a camel through the eye of a needle at this point.

Further, if the Tennessee Titans defeat the Miami Dolphins on Sunday or the Kansas City Chiefs lose at Cincinnati, the Broncos will face a Chiefs team that has something to play for in Week 18, as they would need a win to clinch home-field advantage. Thus, the Broncos must deal with a pair of foes in the final two weeks who have playoff position on the line.

Meanwhile, the Broncos built their 7-win tally mostly on the dregs of the league. The Broncos .357 strength-of-victory percentage is the worst in the AFC.

Sure, the Broncos can get to 9-8. But that will still likely result in them missing the playoffs, despite the field now being larger than at any point in NFL history other than the 1982 strike year. And if they miss the playoffs despite having the fifth-worst strength of schedule in the NFL, it’s a damning indictment on the franchise’s continued stalling in its on-field performance.