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K.J. Hamler was spectacular against Carolina in Week 13. Jerry Jeudy’s route-running has created separation leading to some big plays throughout the season, including a fourth-quarter touchdown grab in Atlanta in Week 9.
The flashes from the Broncos’ first two 2020 draft picks are there. But with a young quarterback at the trigger and overall inconsistency from the offense, those flashes have yet to become consistent bursts.
And dropped passes have been a reason why.
According to the data compiled by Pro Football Focus, Hamler has the worst drop rate in the NFL among 106 players with at least 50 targets so far this season. With a drop percentage of 18.9, Hamler is credited with one drop every 5.29 catchable passes, and seven drops in total — including one in last Saturday’s loss to the Buffalo Bills.
Jeudy also had a statistical drop Saturday on a second-quarter pass from Drew Lock that whizzed through his grasp. He also has seven drops, but with more opportunities, his drop percentage is 14.6 — one every 6.86 catchable passes.
The league-wide drop percentage is 5.93 percent — one every 16.86 catchable passes.
But Noah Fant’s drop rate is 3.7 percent. Tim Patrick’s drop rate is 0.0; he’s caught all 46 catchable passes thrown his way this season, per PFF’s data. Their success is the cause for belief that Jeudy and Hamler will improve.
Fant improved his drop rate from one every 14.3 catchable passes last year to one every 27.0 this year. Patrick dropped four of 27 catchable passes in 2018, a rate of one every 6.75 opportunities; in the last two years, he has just one drop in 63 catchable passes.
And then there is Courtland Sutton. As a rookie in 2018, Sutton’s drop rate of one every 5.67 catchable passes (17.6 percent) was the second-worst in the NFL, trailing only Cincinnati’s John Ross. Since then, he has just four drops in 79 catchable passes, good for a drop rate of one every 19.75 passes and a drop percentage of 5.06 percent.
Thus, it comes as no surprise that Vic Fangio thinks that Hamler and Jeudy can fix this glitch.
“I think both of them have good hands,” he said. “Occasionally, you’re going to have some drops, but obviously just repetition and catching a million balls in the offseason, during the season [and in] practice.”
The concern on Hamler is that he had a high drop rate at Penn State — 16.1 percent (one every 6.09 catchable passes) in 2019 and 13.3 percent (one every 7.53 catchable passes) for his career, according to the numbers compiled by Pro Football Focus.
Jeudy’s college drop rates were better — 8.33 percent (one every 12.0 passes) in 2019 and 7.56 percent (one every 13.2 catchable passes) during three Alabama seasons. That stands as evidence that his early-season spate of drops was his aberration, and not the norm.
But if the work of the months to come pays off for Hamler and Jeudy as it did for Fant, Patrick and Sutton, this will be the only year in which this will be an issue for the Broncos’ potentially dynamic draft-class duo.
“I think both of them have shown that they belong in this league and will be good players in this league for a long time,” Fangio said.