Here’s what we know about Drew Lock after eight starts

Drew Lock is eight starts into his NFL career, and there is only one logical assessment of his play to date and what it means for his future:

The jury is still out.

And it could be deliberating for a while.

There are plenty of numbers to consider from his half-season of work — but drawing a conclusion — let alone a decision — is folly.

BASE METRICS: IN THE MIDDLE TIER

Considering all 66 quarterbacks who made their first eight career starts since 2010, Lock’s rating in those starts of 83.2 places him 27th, according to data compiled via pro-football-reference.com.

• His completion percentage of 61.0 ranks 27th of those 66.
• His yards-per-attempt figure (6.63) is 38th.
• His touchdown percentage (3.67 percent) is 37th.
• His interception percentage (2.29 percent) ranks 23rd.
• His sack rate (one every 28.25 pass plays) ranks 5th.
• His plus-3 TD-INT ratio (8 TD, 5 INT) ranks T-26th.

In raw passer rating, there is a level at which long-term success is virtually assured based on the first eight starts: a 100.0 rating. Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott and Colin Kaepernick are the only four quarterbacks in the last decade to reach that standard in their first eight starts.

But passer rating is not a guarantee of long-term failure; Josh Allen’s rating of 63.3 in his first eight starts is the third-worst of these 66 quarterbacks in the last decade. And two of the quarterbacks with better passer ratings in their first eight starts include Brock Osweiler (87.9) and Trevor Siemian (86.2). The fortunes for both declined thereafter.

Lock’s passer rating might be different if Denver’s pass-catchers dropped passes at a league-average rate. Which brings us to …

DROPS ARE AN ISSUE

This isn’t on Lock, of course, but any honest analysis must note that the Broncos have the NFL’s highest drop rate through eight weeks — one every 8.31 catchable passes, per the data compiled by Pro Football Focus. Since Lock moved into the starting lineup last year, one of every 10.5 catchable passes he’s thrown has been dropped — a total of 14 out of 147.

Since the start of the 2019 season, the league-wide drop rate is one every 13.94 receiving opportunities, per the data compiled by Pro Football Focus. With Lock, the Broncos’ drop rate is one every 10.5 opportunities. (It could be worse; poor Jeff Driskel endured a drop rate of one every six receiving opportunities during nearly two games of work.)

While one can exist in the hypothetical of the Broncos’ targets catching every catchable potential touchdown pass in New England last Sunday, an acceptable drop rate in the range of the league average would have still seen one or two passes dropped.

In Lock’s career to date, a normal drop rate would have meant four more completions — and perhaps one or two more touchdowns. And even two more deep passes that didn’t end in drops would alter the perception of Lock’s deep-passing performance.

Lock still needs to avoid forcing the football into double coverage, but a little help from his receiving friends will go a long way toward allowing the Broncos’ offense to function at high efficiency — and providing enough data to provide a more reliable projection of Lock’s long-term outlook.

FREQUENCY OF FORGETTABLE GAMES

If a quarterback has more than four games with a sub-55.0 passer rating in his first eight starts, he is in the company of DeShone Kizer, Jimmy Clausen, Brett Hundley, Ryan Lindley and Curtis Painter — a rogue’s gallery of forgettable passers.

Those are the only five quarterbacks with more passer ratings of 55.0 or worse than Lock in their first eight starts over the last decade. Lock has three such games: last Sunday at New England, Week 2 at Pittsburgh and Week 15 at Kansas City in 2019.

Others with that many sub-55.0 starts early in their career include three quarterbacks who found success — Ryan Tannehill, Jared Goff and Josh Allen — and seven who did not: Bryce Petty, Devlin “Duck” Hodges, Geno Smith, John Skelton, Johnny Manziel, Nathan Peterman and Ryan Mallett.

However, if you deduct the Steelers start, Lock joins different company. That day, he posted a 1-of-5, 20-yard performance with a 43.7 rating before he suffered a right shoulder bruise that knocked him out for the following two games.

The quarterbacks with two sub-55.0 ratings in their first eight starts is a cluster of 23 that includes one superstar (Russell Wilson), one standout derailed by injury (Andrew Luck), two mid-tier starters (Sam Bradford and Kirk Cousins), a young QB (Sam Darnold) and a cluster of fringe starters and backups. That list that runs the gamut from Case Keenum, Blake Bortles and Nick Foles to clear backups such as Luke Falk, Colt McCoy and Jeff Driskel.

Even avoiding a 55.0 rating in starts 1-8 is no guarantee of success. That list of quarterbacks includes Mahomes, Watson, Lamar Jackson, Prescott, Kyler Murray, Derek Carr and Kaepernick. It also includes eventual long-term backups such as Robert Griffin III, Nick Mullens, Brian Hoyer and Mike Glennon, and three Broncos: Tim Tebow, Brock Osweiler and Trevor Siemian.

WHAT ALL THIS SAYS …

Is to wait and see. See if the Broncos can cut their drops. See how Lock fares with a few more games under his belt following his injury.

The absolutists in media and fandom will try to project one way or another and offer a grade right now, especially given the rapid success of quarterbacks like Mahomes, Watson, Jackson and Justin Herbert. But for Lock, the only report-card mark that is accurate is “incomplete.”