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Two years ago, Randy Gregory receiving a 5-year contract that could be worth up to $70 million wouldn’t have been on anyone’s radar.
He had just missed the entire 2019 season because of his latest suspension for violation of the league’s substance-abuse policy — the second full season that he had missed, in addition to the 2017 season. From 2015 through 2019, he had played in just 28 of a possible 80 regular-season games because of suspensions — and, as a rookie, a troublesome high-ankle sprain.
But for the last two years, Gregory has steered clear of the substance-abuse issues that began in college, when he tested positive for marijuana leading up to the NFL Draft, putting his draft stock into a freefall.
His progress and success was so profound that by last summer, Gregory was named to the Cowboys’ 14-player leadership council, a distinction that stood as evidence of the respect he had earned for not only staying clean, but playing well in 2020 as a rotational player.
That set him up for a 2021 season in which he started 11 games and finished seventh among 94 NFL edge rushers (minimum 200 snaps) in combined hit-plus-sack rate, according to the data compiled by Pro Football Focus.
Gregory’s pressure rate last year was 11th on that list, with one every 6.98 pass-rush snaps. Both are above his career rates of one pressure every 7.82 pass-rush snaps and one hit or sack every 18.98 opportunities.
Those numbers compare favorably with those of his edge-rush complement, Bradley Chubb, who has one hit or sack every 23.27 pass-rush snaps and one pressure every 8.51 opportunities.
The sack total was modest last year for a player of his contract length and value — 6 in 13 games, including playoffs. He also spent four weeks on injured reserve because of a calf injury and had just one sack in the six games after returning and saw his pressure rate drop — to one every 16.25 pass-rush snaps.
The Broncos are betting on the overall trends for Gregory — two years without a relapse in his substance-abuse issues and his rise from being a rotational contributor into a key component of the Cowboys’ pass rush.
His contract is designed to minimize the Broncos’ risk if Gregory doesn’t pan out. With 40 percent of the contract guaranteed, the Broncos can structure the year-by-year cap hit to give them a relatively painless out from the contract after the 2023 season.
Of course, Gregory isn’t the first ex-Cowboys pass rusher to sign a massive free-agent contract with the Broncos. And his jersey number of 94 in Dallas is the same as the one worn so brilliantly by DeMarcus Ware for his entire career.
It’s not fair to compare Gregory to Ware, and the expectations must remain in line. Ware is destined for the Pro Football Hall of Fame, while the Broncos are still learning what the 6-foot-5 Gregory can be and whether he can live up to the potential he displayed at Nebraska.
But after making the same Dallas-to-Denver move, the Broncos now hope that Gregory can weave the same sort of magic.