Here's what Russell Wilson could do with the Broncos if they let him cook

Zac Stevens Avatar
March 23, 2022

In his first 10 seasons in the NFL, Russell Wilson has been incredible.

Starting all but three games since entering the NFL in 2012, Russ has averaged 3,706 passing yards, over 29 touchdowns, fewer than nine interceptions and a 101.8 passer rating per year.

Additionally, Wilson’s 113 wins is the most by a quarterback in NFL history in a players first 10 years in the league.

Over the past five years, when he’s truly taken over the Seahawks, he’s been even better.

From the start of the 2017 season until now, Wilson has averaged 3,773 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, fewer than nine interceptions and a 103.8 passer rating.

That’s really good.

But what makes all of that even more impressive, is the Seahawks have been holding Wilson back this entire time.

Pete Carroll wants a game manager at the most important position in sports. The defensive-minded coach wants to be a run-first team. The Seahawks head coach wants to control the game from an offensive perspective and win on the ground and with defense. Carrol hasn’t wanted to have a high-flying passing attack, despite having one of the best quarterbacks in the league over the past decade.

In fact, Wilson has put up those ungodly numbers and victories while the Seahawks have severely limited his passing attempts.

In Russ’ tenure in Seattle, the Seahawks were never a top-10 passing team in terms of passing attempts. Carroll and the Seahawks never let Russ cook.

Only one of Wilson’s ten years in Seattle did the Seahawks rank in the top-half of the league in passing attempts. That year, 2017, Seattle had the 16th-most attempts. They barely cracked the top half of the league. In 2017, Wilson led the NFL in passing touchdowns. When given a slight opportunity, Wilson capitalized greatly.

Every other year, Seattle severely limited Wilson’s passing opportunities.

In fact, half of Wilson’s time with the Seahawks, Seattle had the fewest passing attempts in the NFL. Yes, despite having Russell Wilson, Carroll and the Seahawks passed the ball fewer than every single team in the NFL in half of the seasons in the past decade, including last year.

In 2012, 2013, 2014, 2018 and 2021, Seattle had the fewest passing attempts in the entire NFL.

Wilson not only overcame opposing defense’s game plans, he overcame his own team severely limiting him to have a historic start to his career.

In Denver, Russ should only have to worry about opposing teams limiting him, not his own. It’s fully expected that Nathaniel Hackett will give Wilson the chefs hat and let him cook.

If, and most likely when, that happens, a new ceiling to Wilson’s game could be unlocked.

Over the past five years, the Seahawks have had 9.1 percent fewer passing attempts than the league average.

Despite having No. 3 leading their offense, in the past five years, Seattle has had 13.5 percent fewer passing attempts than the teams with the 10th-most passing attempts.

And, finally, despite having a Pro-Bowl quarterback, in the previous five seasons, the Seahawks have had 24.1 percent fewer passing attempts than the teams with the most passing attempts each year.

If Seattle had just given Russ the league average number of passing attempts in the past five years, he would have had 4,116 passing yards, 36 touchdowns, fewer than 10 interceptions and a 103.8 passer rating each year.

But Wilson isn’t an average quarterback.

If he were given the 10th-most passing attempts over the last five years, he would have averaged 4,282 passing yards, over 37 touchdowns, just over 10 interceptions and a 103.8 passer rating per year.

And if Seattle would have allowed Wilson to be tied for the most passing attempts in the NFL over the past five years, he would have racked up a stat line of 4,682 passing yards, 41 touchdowns, just over 11 interceptions and a 103.8 passer rating per year.

Those numbers are based on a 16-game schedule too. Over a 17-game schedule, Wilson’s numbers, based on being tied for having the most passing attempts over the past five years, would have equated to 4,975 passing yards, 44 touchdowns, less than 12 interceptions and a 103.8 passer rating

If that was Wilson’s stat line in 2021, he would have had the third-most passing yards, the most passing touchdowns—racking up one more than Tom Brady—the 17th-most interceptions and his passer rating would have been the fourth best in the NFL.

That’s elite territory.

This isn’t a dreamland either. This is what Russell Wilson would have been able to do based off his own stats of the last five years if given a bigger opportunity in Seattle.

At his introductory press conference, Russ pointed to quarterbacks playing better in their mid 30s as one of the reasons why he thinks he hasn’t “even got started yet” in terms of producing at a high level.

That, along with how Seattle held him back, gives multiple reasons to believe that Wilson’s best productivity is still to come.

Nathaniel Hackett and the Broncos need to unleash Russell Wilson and let him live up to his true potential.

It’s simple — Let Russ cook.

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  1. BroncosOnly Avatar
    BroncosOnly

    I’m really looking forward to this new era.

  2. Sunfunbun Avatar
    Sunfunbun

    Does it perhaps occur to you that Wilson is successful because of limited attempts?

    Unleashing him could hinder, over doing his talent and putting him in a situation he tries to do too much. Elway won with TD and a defense. Besides, Wilson threw 558 passes in 2020. Elway topped that only one time in his career.

    I’d be wary of the hyped idea that Carroll was actually holding him back.

    1. Rman937 Avatar
      Rman937

      Probably depends on how you unleash him. Teams will probably deploy a 2 deep scheme to take away his strength, the long ball, as happened with Mahomes. His increased attempts will have to come in the intermediate window, historically, his weakness. In the second half of his career that will probably be what determines his success. A more rhythmic passing attack in the short and intermediate zones will lead to more attempts that meets with Zac’s extrapolated numbers, imo.

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