So you’re saying there’s a chance? Yes, yes I am.

Despite the Buffs being guaranteed a losing regular season record, the increase in bowl games to 40 (41 including the CFP title game) this season may leave an opening for the Buffs to slide in.

Here’s what has to happen:

Step one:

The Buffs must win out. Any loss would put them at eight losses which would put them behind a whole bunch of teams with seven and eliminate them completely. It’s a tall order, but it’s not out of the question.

Step two:

Here’s where things get a little more tricky, with Central Michigan’s victory in Wednesday night’s MACtion, 63 of 80 bowl slots have now been filled. With two weeks left in the season (three for conferences with no title game), there are  17 teams six-loss needing one more win and 11 needing two.

Here’s the outlook for those teams:

Needing one win:

Colorado State 

Remaining schedule: @ New Mexico (6-4), @ Fresno State (3-7)

Arizona State

Remaining schedule: Arizona (6-5), @ Cal (6-4)

Nebraska

 Remaining schedule: Iowa (10-0)

Illinois

Remaining schedule: @ Minnesota (4-6), Northwestern (8-2)

Missouri

Remaining schedule: Tennessee (6-4), @ Arkansas (6-4)

UConn

Remaining schedule: Houston (10-0), @ Temple (8-2)

Auburn

Remaining schedule: Idaho (3-7), Alabama (9-1)

West Virginia

Remaining schedule: @ Kansas (0-10), Iowa State (3-7), @ Kansas State (3-6)

Virginia Tech

Remaining schedule: UNC (9-1), @ Virginia (3-7)

Tulsa

Remaining schedule: Navy (8-1), @ Tulane (3-7)

Middle Tennessee

Remaining schedule: North Texas (1-9), @ UTSA (2-8)

Utah State

Remaining schedule: Nevada (6-4), BYU (7-3)

Old Dominion

Remaining schedule: @ So. Miss (7-3), FAU (2-8)

Akron

Remaining schedule: Buffalo (5-5), Kent State (3-8)

Buffalo

Remaining schedule: @ Akron (5-5), UMass (2-8)

Florida International

Remaining schedule: West Kentucky (8-2)

South Alabama

Remaining schedule: @ Georgia State (3-6), @ Georgia Southern (7-2), Appalachian State (8-2)

East Carolina (beat UCF Thursday night to get to five)

Remaining schedule: Cincinatti (6-4)

Favored to win this week:

West Virginia, Illinois, Middle Tennessee, Utah State and Auburn.

(Winner of Buffalo-Akron will get win number six.)

Needing two wins

Texas –

Remaining schedule: Texas Tech (6-5), @ Baylor (8-1)

Indiana

Remaining schedule: @ Maryland (2-8), @ Purdue (2-8)

San Jose State

Remaining schedule: @ Hawaii (2-9), Boise State (7-3)

Washington

Remaining schedule: @ Oregon State (2-8), Washington State (7-3)

Minnesota

Remaining schedule: Illinois (5-5), Wisconsin (8-2)

Vanderbilt

Remaining schedule: Texas A&M (7-3), @ Tennessee (6-4)

Kentucky

Remaining schedule:  Charlotte (2-8), Louisville (6-4)

UTEP

Remaining schedule: Louisiana Tech (7-3), @ North Texas (1-9)

Rice

Remaining schedule:  @ UTSA (2-8), Charlotte (2-8)

Louisiana-Lafayette

Remaining schedule: New Mexico State (2-7), @ Appalachian State (8-2), Troy (3-7)

Favored to win this week:

San Jose State, Washington, Minnesota, Kentucky, Louisiana-Lafayette.

(Minnesota-Illinois is guaranteed to either get Illinois in or Minnesota one win closer)

 

So what exactly needs to happen?

Colorado needs only 16 of those 26 teams to get the necessary wins. With only five of the 17 needing one win favored this week, it’s safe to assume that if the Buffs would definitely be alive for another week if they were able to pull out a win in Pullman.

IF

All of that happens here’s how the NCAA selects teams from the remaining pool.

1.) Teams finishing with a 6-6 record with a win over an FCS team that wouldn’t normally count for bowling purposes because they do not meet scholarship criteria.

You look confused, don’t worry, that rule doesn’t apply to any teams this season

2.) Six win teams with two wins against FCS schools.

North Carolina and Boston College are the only two this applies to, North Carolina is already at nine wins and Boston College can’t get to six.

3.) 6-7 teams with loss seven coming in the conference championship game.

This could still technically happen, but we would have already counted that six-win team in when they hit six in the regular season. Move along.

4.) 6-7 teams that play a 13-game schedule, due to the Hawaii exception.

And there’s where the Buffs fall in if they could get to six, meaning CU would be the very first team eligible if the remaining 17 slots aren’t filled.

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Got all that? If not here’s the easy way to look at it: Check out the “remaining schedule” part of the teams listed above, those are all your new second favorite teams.

If the Buffs are able to get the win on Saturday, we will update the lists accordingly in a new post.