Here's what could come next for the Broncos and Von Miller

As the regular season dawned, the Broncos were counting on a powerful defense to carry the team and sustain their hopes while a young, evolving offense found its footing.

Losing Von Miller could deal a body blow to those hopes.

Miller was injured in practice Tuesday, suffering what ESPN’s Adam Schefter described as an injury to an ankle tendon. If he undergoes surgery, that would end his campaign before it began.

On a human level, the injury is crushing for Miller. During training camp, he appeared to be in his best shape in several years. A rigorous training regimen in the San Francisco Bay Area with Frank Matrisciano — better known as “Hell’s Trainer” — allowed Miller to report to camp in prime condition. A springtime bout with COVID-19 was harrowing, but in the past. Miller’s training-camp work was dominant. A return to a double-digit sack total was expected — and he had the chance to carry the Broncos defense back to the NFL’s elite with him.

Now, that is out the window. Denver’s defense doesn’t suddenly become lousy without Miller; it was still 10th in the league in total defense last year without edge rusher Bradley Chubb for 12 games and cornerback Bryce Callahan for all 16. It should still be a solid unit.

But the hopes of it returning to its top-5 level of the mid-2010s and carrying the team through bumps for its nascent offense absorbed a haymaker Monday.

THE SHORT-TERM IMPACT

Let’s start with Week 1.

Miller’s absence will be a massive problem given that the best power back in the NFL, Tennessee’s Derrick Henry, will stare across the line of scrimmage from a linebacking corps that could look nothing like its expected structure when training camp began Aug. 14.

That day, the Broncos expected to have Miller, Bradley Chubb, Todd Davis and Alexander Johnson as their four linebackers. Chubb is working his way back to a full workload after a setback suffered at the Aug. 29 stadium practice. Davis is no longer a Bronco; the team cut him last Friday. If Chubb is on a strict repetition count, it is possible that the Broncos could play most of the Titans game with a linebacking corps that includes only Johnson from the projected starting quartet.

The Broncos must also resist the temptation to push Chubb into a heavier workload than he can handle after the setback he suffered with his knee during the stadium practice on Aug. 29.

“We have to get him going,” Broncos general manager John Elway said last Saturday. “That, I think, will take some time, but we know what he can do.”

If Miller is out for an extended period of time, they will need the best of Chubb. And that means being patient. Thus, expect heavy doses of Malik Reed and Jeremiah Attaochu, both of whom started last year for Chubb and had excellent training camps.

No matter when Chubb returns to a full workload, the Broncos need another outside linebacker for depth. They can’t call on Justin Hollins; the bid to push the second-year linebacker through waivers and onto the practice squad failed when the Los Angeles Rams claimed him Sunday. The Rams’ defensive coordinator, Brandon Staley, was Hollins’ position coach last year with the Broncos.

Veterans Terrell Suggs, Clay Matthews III and Cameron Wake remain on the market and could be considered to provide depth.

Suggs started the 2019 season on the Cardinals and finished it with the Kansas City Chiefs; he accumulated 6.5 sacks last year, but five of them came in his first seven games. He had just 1.5 sacks in his final 11 games, including the postseason.

Matthews logged 8 sacks and 2 forced fumbles for the Rams last season after a 10-year career with the Green Bay Packers. Like Suggs, his production tailed off after a fast start; Matthews had 7 sacks in his first six games, but logged a single sack in his final seven starts.

Wake, who turned 38 last October, played nine games for the Titans in 2019 before succumbing to a hamstring injury. All of his 2.5 sacks last season came in the regular-season opener.

THE LONG-TERM IMPACT

If Miller is indeed out for the season, the discussion will turn to Miller’s contract, which expires after the 2021 season.

The particulars:

• Cap number: $22,125,000
• Dead money: $4,125,000

The $4.125 million represents the prorated portion of Miller’s signing bonus. The rest is covered by a $17.5 million base salary and a $500,000 workout bonus.

The discussion of what could happen to Miller in 2021 is well-worn in media and fan circles. Prior to Tuesday, it often focused on how many sacks Miller would need to justify the Broncos bringing him back at such a high cap figure.

The calculus changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. With games played at limited capacity or without fans, the cap could be as low as $175 million — $23.2 million below its 2020 figure.

If the cap is at $175 million, Miller’s cap figure would consume $12.6 percent of the Broncos’ salary cap.

Still, the Broncos can handle it if they choose. Here’s how:

• According to the NFLPA’s daily top-51-salaries cap report, the Broncos have $31,110,391 of cap space, a figure that drops to just over $25 million when incorporating all salaries. (In the offseason, the cap is calculated based off the top 51 salaries; in the regular season it includes all contracts.)
• Denver has $155,283,612 of projected salary-cap commitments for 2021, according to OvertheCap.com. This includes Miller’s projected contract terms for that year. This would be approximately $19.72 million under the $175 million cap, which means that even with a handful of regular-season signings at the league minimum, the Broncos could expect to have approximately $38-$42 million of cap space when factoring in the carryover of space from 2021. This would put the Broncos in better shape than most of the league.

A $22.125 million cap figure for a player who could be coming off of a season-long injury would likely be too much to swallow. But the cirscumstances could be right for a restructure.

With the cap taking a hit league-wide, the free-agent market will likely be depressed compared to previous years. Eleven teams have more than $175 million in cap commitments on the books for 2021, according to OvertheCap. Another four are within $10 million of that figure, which would cover their draft classes.

So with nearly half of the league already facing cuts to be in cap compliance, few players on the market will get what they might expect in other years.

Which leads us to Miller’s scenario.

If the Broncos cut him, they would save $18 million. But Miller would likely not find the market ideal for getting what could be his final multi-year contract as he heads into his 11th season. The combination of a significant injury and a league-wide cap and cash crunch might limit him to a one-year deal if he was released.

So it would behoove both Miller and the Broncos to focus on a restructure that provides some guaranteed money and production-based incentives.

For example, the Broncos could create an extra $8 million in 2021 cap space by offering him a restructured deal that guaranteed him $10 million for 2021, with the chance to earn that $8 million based on his performance.

This would give him the chance to a) earn all he would have under the previous terms, while b) leaving open the possibility of hitting the market in 2022, when the climate should be more favorable.

Of course, the Broncos could also work out a restructure and an extension, but this is the solution that provides for both short-term cap relief and an opportunity for Miller to set himself up for one big final deal in 2022 and beyond, whether it is in Denver or elsewhere.

Cap and cash decisions are often heartless, but given Miller’s contributions to the franchise over the last decade, creating some kind of symbiotic deal would be appropriate. His body of work could lead to No. 58 being retired by the Broncos in the future Only a handful of players have been better — or more important, and more adored by the fan base.

If the injury is the worst-case scenario, the Broncos should make every attempt to do right by Miller.

Sadly, the possibility exists that Miller has played his last game with the team. It is not one some fans want to consider, yet it cannot be dismissed. But if his injury is a season-ender, there are ways to avoid that sort of ending and provide a chance for Miller to make a dramatic comeback in the only colors he has known as a pro: orange and blue.

The multi-layered hope of that vision — Miller galloping through the southwest tunnel at Empower Field at Mile High to the roar of a full house — could provide the light of hope in a grim moment for one of the most beloved players in franchise history.