Here's what comes next for the Broncos and Justin Simmons

DENVER — John Elway’s perfect streak of being able to sign franchise-tagged players to multi-year deals officially ended at 2 p.m. Wednesday when the team and the Broncos failed to reach a long-term contract.

So, Simmons will play this year on the franchise-tag salary of $11,441,000. With fellow safety Kareem Jackson carrying a 2020 cap figure of $13,882,353, the Broncos will still have the highest-paid safety duo in the NFL. The average team will spent $9,876,238 of its salary-cap space on its two highest-paid safeties, per data compiled from OvertheCap.com.

The Broncos will be over $15 million above that average.

That isn’t sustainable for overall roster balance. But as long as Jackson and Simmons are healthy this year, the Broncos will get what they pay for: arguably the best safety tandem in the NFL, and an ideal scheme fit for Vic Fangio.

In an environment with more unknown quantities than any other faced in modern NFL history, Jackson and Simmons’ play represents a known quantity on which the Broncos can build their 2020 hopes.

Beyond that? It’s murky.

WHAT’S NEXT?

In the short term, Simmons will play out the year. But the altered economic landscape created by the COVID-19 pandemic will likely have an impact on what takes place over the next few months.

First, the NFL and NFL Players Association must work out the structure of the salary cap in future years. Teams around the league — including the Broncos — have confirmed that they will be playing at reduced capacity for home games.

At 20 percent capacity, teams could be looking at a league-wide loss of approximately $2.4 billion in revenue, which could spike to $3 billion or more if the season is played without any fans in attendance. The potential cancellation of games would trigger more drops in revenue.

This is significant because the salary cap is tied to revenue. Per terms of the new collective bargaining agreement ratified in March, 48 percent of revenue will go towards player salaries, up from 47 percent in the previous cap. But even with that percentage change, a loss of revenue could drop the cap, perhaps as much as $40 million per team.

There are ways to avoid this, such as by diluting the impact of this year’s revenue drop by applying it to salary caps from 2022 through 2030. In those years, the NFL should expect to see greater broadcast and streaming income through contracts that will be negotiated to begin in 2022. By spreading out the impact of the loss of revenue this year, the salary cap wouldn’t have the massive spike previously expected in 2022, but it would allow teams to avoid the catastrophic drop that would force numerous teams to make massive cuts and restructures next year.

One thing the players and the NFL can agree upon is that a 2021 cap reduction would harm both sides. For players, it’s obvious; in addition to cuts, the free-agency market would be depressed. For teams that have planned on a salary cap in the neighborhood of $200 million to $205 million, it would destroy years of planning. Some teams, like the Saints and Eagles, would need to trim close to $100 million of commitments already made for 2021 to be in compliance.

It behooves both sides to avoid this, which is why a resolution should be expected. That would create budget certainty, which would help the chances of making a multi-year deal if revenues rebound in 2021.

But if all this does not lead to a multi-year deal, the Broncos aren’t doomed to lose him in free agency next spring — because a second franchise tag is an option.

The Broncos could choose to tag him next year and would still pay him less than the $14 million average-per-year value that was widely regarded as a benchmark for a multi-year deal. That would bring Simmons back for $13,729,000, since a second consecutive franchise tag increases the player’s salary by 20 percent.

Another tag brings the potential of ill feelings for the player tagged, and the possibility of mental fatigue from dealing with two years of questions about contract status.

Yet it does not close the door on Simmons cashing in — and doing so with the Broncos.

The key would be to ensure that the second tag was used as a bridge to getting a contract done. The example of Dallas edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence illustrates this; the Cowboys tagged him in 2018 and 2019, but signed him to a five-year contract that included $65 million in guarantees less than a month into the 2019 league year.

Lawrence was the fifth player given two consecutive franchise tags since the 2011 collective bargaining agreement. (Ex-Browns kicker Phil Dawson also got two franchise tags in 2011 and 2012, but the Browns issued the 2011 tag in February, five months before the NFL and its players association ratified the 2011 CBA.)

Lawrence’s example shows how two consecutive tags doesn’t have to prevent a deal. The other three examples run the gamut of possibilities (all figures from OvertheCap.com).

LB Anthony Spencer, Dallas: Tagged in 2012 and 2013, Spencer made $19.4 million over the course of those two seasons. But the long-term contract for which he aimed evaporated when he injured his knee in 2013, necessitating microfracture surgery. He lingered on the market in 2014 before returning to Dallas on a one-year deal that paid him just under $1.9 million, but knee problems limited him to a rotational role. He never played another regular-season snap after 2014.

CB Trumaine Johnson, Los Angeles Rams: Given the tag in 2016 and 2017, Johnson earned $30.694 million from the Rams over those two seasons, then signed a five-year contract with the Jets that included $34 million in guarantees. Although the Jets cut him on March 18 — creating $12 million in dead money in the process — Johnson still ended up cashing in nicely, averaging over $16 million per season from 2016-19.

QB Kirk Cousins, Washington: He played the 2016 season on the franchise tag, making $19,953,000. Washington swallowed hard and tagged him again, bumping his pay to $23,943,600 in 2017. Even though Washington missed the postseason in both of those years, Minnesota rewarded him with a three-year contract that gave him $84 million, all of it guaranteed. A restructure and extension this year puts him under team control through 2022, but in that year the Vikings could save $35 million by cutting him. Still, if Minnesota does that, he would walk away with $115 million from Minnesota — and $138,943,600 in the six years since he received the first franchise tag.

So as long as Simmons avoids a career-altering injury, the Brinks truck is still coming to his house. It’s just a matter of when — and who is issuing the check.