Here's how the Broncos' plan for their biggest upset in decades almost worked

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — It almost worked.

The Denver Broncos’ plan against the Kansas City Chiefs was to play keep-away, ground-and-pound football on offense. On defense, it was to make red-zone stops. In tactical game management, it was to be aggressive.

And all of it was to set up the Broncos to be ready to pounce if the Chiefs were just a bit off. But the Broncos couldn’t afford any missteps on their narrow path to victory, and they had just enough of them to lead to a 22-16 loss at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.

Consider what the Broncos did:

• They held the ball for 30 minutes and 31 seconds and didn’t finish a possession without a first down until 24 seconds remained in the game;
• They ran the ball five more times than they threw, with their 33 runs averaging a robust 5.4 yards per attempt;
• They extended drives on third downs, converting 54 percent of their 13 third-down attempts and furthering their effort to play keep-away;
• They held the Chiefs to 19 of a possible 35 points on five red-zone forays, including two stops on series that saw the Chiefs penetrate to the Denver 5-yard line or closer;
• They didn’t allow a single play from scrimmage of more than 30 yards, something that has been accomplished just four times against the Chiefs in Patrick Mahomes’ 48 career starts (including postseason).

These combined to make a colossal upset a realistic possibility.

But the Broncos also needed to not beat themselves. With a first-possession interception by quarterback Drew Lock and a fourth-quarter punt decision from coach Vic Fangio that ran counter to the overall plan of the night, the Broncos had just enough go askew to doom them.

“There’s no moral victories. We came here to win,” Fangio said. “I fully thought we would win and I’m disappointed that we came up short.”

While the Broncos’ play-calling could be considered conservative, with fidelity to the run and play-action, Fangio generally opted for tactical aggression in his game management.

“I was in the mode of doing most everything aggressively when we had those decisions,” Fangio said.

He went for two with a 16-12 lead in the third quarter after Tim Patrick’s second touchdown reception of the night. He sent Brandon McManus out to attempt a 57-yard field goal with 33 seconds left before halftime, a move that backfired when McManus missed wide left.

That gave the Chiefs 28 seconds to score on a drive that started from the Kansas City 47-yard line, just one intermediate Mahomes completion away from field-goal range. Mahomes got that and more; within three plays, he had the Chiefs at the Denver 5-yard line. Only the Broncos’ stellar red-zone defense prevented the Chiefs from a touchdown that would have put them in front at halftime.

But with 6:13 remaining and the Broncos facing fourth-and-3 from their 49-yard line and a 19-16 deficit, Fangio sent the punt team onto the field.

“I gave it a strong consideration, but at some point in the game we’ve got to get a stop and we weren’t able to there,” Fangio said. “We held them to a field goal, but that made it a touchdown game and burned out some of the time there.

“So, in retrospect, [we] should have probably gone for it, but I did give it serious thought.”

The problem was that the Broncos defense, as stellar as it was in the red zone, was not getting off the field quickly. It failed to record a three-and-out all night. On that drive, three Chiefs first downs were enough to move them into field-goal range and drain all but the final 64 seconds from the game clock.

The Broncos’ last-gasp drive ended with Lock’s second interception of the night. That pick can be forgiven, chalked up to the aggression necessary in that scenario.

But it was his errant throw on the first drive that echoed and led to flashbacks to the struggles of earlier weeks. Lock ducked to escape pressure, rolled to his left and looked for Troy Fumagalli, only to misplace the pass, allowing Chiefs safety Tyrann Mathieu to intercept it.

The pick likely cost the Broncos three points that would have proven crucial throughout the contest. It was also the type of play the Broncos could not afford in a game in which near-perfect execution was necessary.

Lock wasn’t entertaining the notion of a “moral victory” after the loss.

“I feel like you’re going to close the gap, or at least in my heart and in my mind, you close the gap when you beat them,” Lock said. “There are no feel-good losses in this league, ever. We did play them closer than we have before, but what does that get you? Nothing. It gets you an upset locker room, it gets you to a sad flight home, but we’ll learn from it and keep getting better and keep focusing on these little things that sometimes bite us in the butt.”

Those little things prevented the Broncos from what would have been their biggest regular-season upset since they shocked Oakland in 1972, John Ralston’s first season as head coach.

The Broncos had a plan Sunday, and it almost worked. They almost prevented their losing streak against the Chiefs from reaching a mind-numbing 11 games.

But the Broncos needed to be perfect. Perfect at execution. Perfect in decision-making. And that was too much for a team that has been far too imperfect in recent years.