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Here's how the Broncos must adapt without Courtland Sutton and Drew Lock

Andrew Mason Avatar
September 22, 2020

During the Broncos’ truncated training camp, questions lingered throughout the offense, particularly the passing game. But there was one aspect of the attack that was poised to be the load-bearing pillar:

Lock-to-Sutton.

Throw that out the window.

The Broncos can expect Drew Lock back in the next three to five weeks after he recovers from a bruise to his throwing shoulder. They will not be so fortunate with Sutton, who tore two ligaments in his knee while tackling Steelers cornerback Joe Haden following a tip-drill interception that skipped off his hands.

Sutton is arguably the best player on the offense. Lock, as the quarterback, is the most important.

But replacing Sutton is going to be the far easier task, because the Broncos are blessed with promising weapons.

IT’S TIME TO MAKE NOAH FANT THE NO. 1 TARGET

This isn’t to say that veteran Tim Patrick and rookies Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler have promise as they step into larger roles. Jeudy is the first Broncos rookie receiver since Demaryius Thomas 10 years ago to post at least 100 receiving yards in the first two weeks of the season; as long as he avoids a relapse of his Week 1 drops, he should become a trusted target.

But as Jeudy and Hamler develop, the Broncos would be wise to think of Fant as their No. 1 pass-catching option, even though he doesn’t have the “wide receiver” designation next to his name.

Heading into Monday night, five tight ends had more receptions than Noah Fant’s nine. Ten tight ends have been targeted more often than Fant, who has been targeted 11 times.

But just three of them have more yards than Fant’s 138. Only one tight end with more than five catches has averaged more yards per reception so far this season than Fant, who is averaging 15.3 yards per catch. And 52 percent of Fant’s yards have come after the reception.

Furthermore, the Broncos offense is more effective when they feed Fant, who has caught passes on seven of the Broncos’ 24 possessions so far this season.

On the drives when he catches the football, the Broncos have averaged 2.57 points, 3.0 first downs and 44.9 net yards per possession. When he doesn’t have a reception, the Broncos average 1.0 points, 1.24 first downs and 22.4 net yards per possession.

The offense opens up when Fant gets involved, and the more effective he becomes, the better his chances of drawing a safety in coverage, which in turn will free up wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler to have more open lanes downfield.

Fant being a primary target — particularly on short to intermediate passes outside of the hashmarks — will also draw safety attention away from Jeudy and Hamler. Hamler, in particular, could find himself with one-on-one opportunities downfield if both Jeudy and Fant are reliable threats within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage, since both have the potential to turn medium-range passes into game-breaking plays after the catch.

GET DRISKEL OUTSIDE OF THE POCKET

The negative here is that it narrows the field; if Driskel rolls to his right, it effectively cuts off the left side of the field, and vice versa. But this also brings running options into play, allowing the Broncos to take advantage of Driskel’s 4.56 speed. He can provide an improvisational threat that can discombobulate a defense and force defenders to keep an eye on the backfield, which could open gaps in coverage.

Driskel’s running threat is legitimate, even though he hasn’t had many opportunities to showcase it.

Among the 54 active quarterbacks with at least 40 rushing attempts, Driskel ranks fourth in average per carry, picking up 5.998 yards on each of his 47 career rushing attempts. Driskel scores once every 6.38 rushing attempts; that figure is seventh-best among active quarterbacks.

Rolling Driskel out also works well with Fant, as it sets up the chance for some quick passes near the sideline against defenses that could be forced to consider threats at multiple levels: short with Driskel’s legs, intermediate with Fant’s run-after-catch and tackle-breaking capability and long with Jeudy or Hamler stretching the field vertically.

Then, of course, there is the running game. Melvin Gordon and Royce Freeman each had double-digit gains Sunday. Gordon has touchdowns in each of the first two games and has been as expected so far; he has averaged 85.0 yards from scrimmage through two weeks. He’s proved in the past that he can handle heavy workloads. Even while they have to live without Phillip Lindsay as he recovers from a turf-toe injury, the Broncos shouldn’t be afraid to play ground-and-pound football — which, in turn, will open horizons for downfield shots and ease the pressure on Driskel.

Broncos coach Vic Fangio did acknowledge the scheme will shift to suit their backup-turned-starter

“We’ll look moving forward to do what best suits Jeff,” Fangio said. “That’s something you always do when you have new players in there.”

The Broncos have the weapons to keep themselves afloat while Lock heals — and to absorb the loss of Sutton.

It will require young players growing up faster than expected and the intrepidity to adapt the points of emphasis of the scheme. More two-tight end formations could be in play. But they can get by — and may even fast-track the development of some key young players.

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