Here's how history shows that Bradley Chubb should reach elite status

History says that Bradley Chubb is likely on the road to greatness.

That’s no guarantee, of course. But the odds are in his favor.

In 2018, Chubb became the 11th rookie since the sack became an official statistic in 1982 to notch at least a dozen sacks in his rookie season.

The 10 names that did it before him are mostly a who’s who of elite pass rushers. Reggie White and Charles Haley are Hall of Famers. Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney and Terrell Suggs are near-locks to join them. Simeon Rice and Leslie O’Neal don’t have Hall of Fame buzz, but they are among the 21 players since 1982 to record at least 120 sacks.

That’s seven players with resumes that place them among the elite pass rushers of the last four decades. Two of the other three, Aldon Smith and Javon Kearse, would break double digits for sacks again; Smith likely would have been among the names in the last paragraph had off-field issues not derailed his career.

Only Chicago’s Mark Anderson, who had 12 sacks as a rookie but then took nearly four seasons (58 games) to get his next 12 sacks, failed to launch after hitting a dozen as a rookie.

 

 

Pardon me pic.twitter.com/JxSkMpdaGY

— Bradley Chubb (@astronaut) June 22, 2020

WHAT COULD DERAIL HIM?

Injuries, since the ACL tear he suffered last year was the second in his football life; he tore an ACL in the same knee in high school.

For Chubb heading into 2020 — the comparison that could give you pause in the short term is with Leslie O’Neal.

If you’re a Broncos fan of a certain age, you remember the havoc that O’Neal wreaked upon the AFC West from his defensive-end position with the San Diego Chargers, beginning in the 1986 season. Only four players — Hall of Famer Derrick Thomas, Neil Smith, Jacob Green and Justin Houston — have recorded more sacks against the Broncos than O’Neal.

But it wasn’t until three years after he suffered a knee injury 13 games into his rookie season that he resumed his old form.

O’Neal’s injury was more severe than the one Chubb suffered; he tore multiple ligaments and had cartilage damage that led to further surgery in 1988 and further delayed his return to his rookie performance.

The differences in injuries and rehabilitation techniques from O’Neal’s day also mean that his recovery could look more like that of Von Miller, who tore his ACL in Week 16 of the 2013 season and then amassed 14 sacks when he returned the following year. Chubb has the benefit of a longer rehabilitation time than Miller — nearly three months more than Miller had to make it back for the start of his fourth season.

ONE MORE THING …

A final detour through pro-football-reference.com got me wondering: What about more than just Chubb’s sacks? What about total tackles and tackles for loss, both of which indicate prowess against the run?

So here is the list of players since 1999 who had at least 12 sacks, 15 tackles for loss and 80 total tackles in their first 20 games:

• Chubb
• Von Miller
• T.J. Watt

That’s the list.

And both Miller and Watt had more sacks in their second 20 games than their first. Miller had 18.5 sacks in regular-season games 21 through 40 after notching 16.5 in his first 20 games; Watt went from 13.0 sacks in his first 20 games to 17.5 in his next 20.

As long as Chubb isn’t the exception to these rules, it’s not a matter of if he becomes one of the NFL’s most lethal edge rushers. It’s when.