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Harrison Wind's 10 Bold Predictions for the Nuggets' season

Harrison Wind Avatar
October 19, 2021

These 10 predictions will surely all come true this season.

Opening night on Wednesday in Phoenix is just over 24 hours away.

The Nuggets’ will capture a top-4 seed…for the 4th-straight season

I’m expecting a slow start to this season. That’s partly due to Denver’s ugly preseason and the general vibe around the team right now, but also because of the Nuggets’ schedule. Denver opens with a daunting matchup in Phoenix against the Suns — I do get the sense that Nuggets players really want that game though — and then have two sets of back-to-backs in its first six games. Throw in three national TV showcases over those first six (at the Suns, at the Jazz, vs. the Mavs) and it’s easy to see how the positive or negative narrative around the Nuggets could be formed very early on.

“Quiet storm baby, quiet storm,” Michael Malone said back in 2018 when the Nuggets and Nikola Jokic were getting national buzz for the first time. “I don’t want anybody talking about us.” Denver could get its wish initially, but the Nuggets will eventually round into form. No player in the NBA is more unstoppable and tougher to game plan for in a regular season environment than Jokic. For my money he’s still the best player in the league and there’s not a higher floor raiser around. Jokic, plus Michael Porter Jr.’s incoming leap, plus Aaron Gordon will equal another top-4 seed. If that comes to fruition, Denver would be the only West franchise to capture a top-4 spot in the conference in each of the last four seasons. The Nuggets are the only one to do it over the last three years too.

Michael Porter Jr. makes an All-Star team

Here’s a season opening list of potential West All-Stars in no particular order: Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Paul George, Luka Doncic, Damian Lillard, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook, Ja Morant, Steph Curry, Zion Williamson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

If Porter levels up to around 24 points per game, which is definitely a possibility, he can make it as long as Denver is in a healthy position in the West when votes are being tallied. Porter averaged 19 per game last season as the third offensive option for most of the year. If the Nuggets are in the top-4 in the conference in January and Porter’s scoring has taken a leap he’ll garner heavy consideration. The Jamal Murray-less narrative will be in his favor.

A guard will get traded

Something feels like it has to give with Denver’s guard depth. Austin Rivers is starting the season out of the rotation if the Nuggets roll with a Facu Campazzo-Bones Hyland second unit backcourt. I can’t imagine he’d be thrilled about that. When Jamal Murray returns, another guard could gets his night-to-night minutes cut. Injuries happen and cold streaks will come, but there’s not enough minutes to go around.

PJ Dozier is Denver’s breakout player

And perhaps Dozier’s emergence is what leads to a trade in the Nuggets’ backcourt. Dozier’s in a contract season and has the chance to make real NBA money next summer for the first time in his career. He’s entering the season healthy, as the Nuggets’ 6th man and has the full trust of Michael Malone. Dozier’s going to play a lot, although Malone has been pretty vocal about wanting the versatile guard to make it through the season without a significant injury. I wouldn’t expect his minutes to go crazy.

But Dozier has a combination of size at 6-6 with a near 7-foot wingspan, ball handling and creativity to his game that Denver doesn’t have elsewhere on its roster. He’s the Nuggets’ go-to perimeter defender too. With a luxury tax payment coming next year, will Denver be able to keep him this summer? The Nuggets definitely would want to. Or will Denver find itself in a Malik Beasley/Juancho Hernangomez situation where it will look to recoup value at the deadline before potentially losing him for nothing next offseason.

Look for Dozier to also close a lot of games. Sometimes at point guard, sometimes at the two.

Aaron Gordon will have the most efficient season of his career

This is all up to Gordon. Last season, Gordon shot 50% from the field after coming over from Orlando at the trade deadline. If he did that for an entire season, it would easily be a new career high (his current career-high FG% is 47.3 which he hit in 2015-16). Simply put, Gordon could shoot even better than the 50% he shot over the second half of last season playing next to Jokic and Porter. The easy buckets, layup and dunks will be flowing starting on opening night. Gordon had a full training camp and preseason in the Nuggets’ system to get more comfortable with Denver’s scheme and play style too.

The only reason he won’t is because the Nuggets want to shoot more 3-pointers. Gordon shot 26.6% from 3-point range last season with Denver. This preseason, Gordon shot 30% from distance and averaged one more 3-pointer per 100 possessions than he did last year. A poor 3-point shooting season on more volume is what could sink this prediction.

Nikola Jokic starts the season in MVP form

The days of Jokic easing into a regular season are long gone. He was playing at an All-NBA level in December and January of last season and should again be this year. I’ve sensed that Jokic has been a bit irritated and annoyed at his teammate’s lack of focus this preseason, so I’m expecting him to come out of the gate hot. He’ll want to set the tone early. Look for him to have one signature game over the first week of the season. I’ll say it comes in the Denver’s 5th game of the year. October 29th at home vs. Dallas. 40 points, 15 rebounds, 10 assists and a Nuggets win.

Bones Hyland stays in the rotation all season

Hyland will start the season in the Nuggets’ rotation. That’s pretty clear after he was actually one of Denver’s better players in the preseason. It’s a stunning ascension for the rookie. Hyland, the 26th overall pick less than three months ago, will be the first true Nuggets rookie coming straight from college to make Malone’s opening night rotation since Jamal Murray in 2016-17 (Some might count Porter, who was in the rotation as a “rookie,” but he was around the team for a full calendar year and sat out due to injury during his true rookie season.)

Malone has stated that he wants Hyland to play through his mistakes. It’s the right approach, but we’ll see if the Nuggets can stick to that plan during whatever cold spells they encounter over the next several months.

Jeff Green closes more games than we think

He’d have to jump Aaron Gordon, but Green offers much more shooting and ball handling and better playmaking. I don’t think it will be Denver’s default look by any means, but don’t be surprised if Green occasionally finds his way onto the floor late in games.

Nikola Jokic does indeed take nights off

Some around the team are in the, ‘I’ll believe it when I see it’ camp when it comes to this topic. The Nuggets have clearly signaled that they want to rest Jokic throughout the season, but it’s largely going to be up to him if he actually does take nights off. For now, he’s said that he will.

We saw late last year how mentally and physically exhausting the regular season was for him. Without Murray for the first big chunk of this season, it’s going to be just as grueling. My read is that he’ll be receptive to the occasional night off when Denver feels like he needs it.

Will Barton finishes the season as the Nuggets’ all-time leader in made 3-pointers

This is an under-the-radar storyline to keep an eye on throughout this season. Barton is 121 3-pointers behind JR Smith for first place in franchise history. Last season, he made 98 total triples but only played in 56 of 72 games. If Barton’s a little healthier, plays in 70 games and converts 1.8 3-pointers per game, which is what he did last season, Barton would finish with regular season with 126 threes. That’s enough for the record.

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