Guidelines for a Successful Rebuild: 3 lessons from the 2016 World Series Champion Chicago Cubs

 

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Disclaimer: This article was written before the Bud Black hiring. While the opinions expressed on potential managerial options are now irrelevant, the points made along with them are not.

I can barely believe I just typed that headline. Just as my voice has yet to return from reacting to the swinging pendulum of win probability known as Game 7 (and subsequent celebration in triumph with the large Chicago contingent here at DU), my mind has yet to accept what has happened. My existential bout with lifelong Cubs fandom has conquered, finally taming the haunting memories of Cubs games passed. I’m only 21, so I can only imagine what a Cubs fan that lived through the entire 108-year drought has endured.

The purpose of this piece is not to reminisce, though. If that’s what you came for, my good friend Shap decided to tackle his feelings on the matter. Rather, this is an examination of the process that got the Cubs where they did from a Rockies perspective. From these last five years, I have identified three underlying principles essential to a functional rebuild and implemented perfectly by Theo Epstein and company.

No, not all rebuilds are equal. Yes, the Cubs are in one of the largest markets, and can flex their financial muscle seemingly at will. On a micro scale, the Rockies should not be stealing from any other team blueprints. Coors Field doesn’t allow for conventional wisdom to thrive. However, these three concepts would go a long way in creating a contender out of the boys on Blake Street.

Don’t Deal from the Farm…Yet

During the 2016 season, the Cubs parted ways with four notable prospects: Gleyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Arismendy Alcantara, and Dan Vogelbach. But when faced with the same issue in previous seasons, Cubs brass opted to hold on to what they had. Why did they wait until 2016 to unload prospects? This is an especially puzzling question at first glance in the case of Vogelbach considering his star is not shining nearly as bright as it once was. It would have made sense, as we were fully aware of his Prince Fielder-like limitations on defense at the time. But now Vogelbach’s offensive potential has also been tempered. With Anthony Rizzo locking down a long-term role at 1B with the big-league club, why wasn’t Vogelbach traded in 2014?

The reality of the situation, however, is that an organization in rebuilding mode won’t trade a prospect simply because they are seemingly at peak trade value. At least a smart organization wouldn’t do such a thing. The difficult part of making such a decision before contention is that you don’t quite know what you have or what you need. The 2016 Cubs established themselves as contenders from the get go, and with a clear mission for rounding out the roster. With a much clearer picture of how to improve the team further, the Cubs pulled the trigger on trades for Aroldis Chapman and Mike Montgomery.

So, if waiting until contention is the key to more efficient allocation of assets, then why didn’t the Cubs make similar moves in 2015? Before we answer that question, a more specific definition of “contention” is needed. In 2015, the NL Central finished with 3 of the top 4 records in baseball. The Cubs were slowly but surely improving as the season went along, and weren’t considered to be of a similar caliber to the Cardinals or Pirates until after the trade deadline passed.

Unless the Cubs could conceivably catch the Cards, the Wild Card game was inevitable. In the Wild Card game, there is a 50% chance your team is playing its last. Those odds are not worth the investment. The 2016 Cubs were playing for a division title, and playing as odds-on favorites to win the World Series. In defining “contention”, it becomes clear that departing with prospects won’t provide much present benefit unless there are division title implications.

Entering this offseason, I have heard many calls for Bridich to move the likes of Riley Pint, Forrest Wall, and Raimel Tapia in favor of contention in 2017. I am not necessarily advocating for keeping these players for the long term. Rather, I am suggesting to wait until the Rockies have a clear shot at the NL West crown before considering anything more than a king’s ransom for impact prospects.

Establish Company Culture and Philosophy

Just over a year into his tenure as President of Baseball Operations, Theo Epstein announced the completion of The Cubs’ Way, a comprehensive manual for team philosophy. Inside it contains everything from scouting tips to a strategic approach to operations in the Dominican Republic to an explanation for which foot should touch first base (the right one). Thus, any member of the Cubs organization has a clear idea of what the organization values, and can act accordingly.

At least in terms of scouting and player development, this is considered one of Bridich’s strengths. From the Gazette’s Paul Klee back when Bridich was hired as GM:

“Most important, Bridich can align the philosophies of the farm system with those of the big-league club. Too often, the messages being delivered in Single-A are not the same as the messages being taught by Weiss at the major-league level.”

During his three years as senior director of player development (where he replaced Thad Levine, who was named GM of the Twins earlier this week) Bridich did exactly what Klee suggests he will do as GM. The difference became Bridich’s increased sphere of influence, allowing more effective implementation of organization-wide philosophy. This cohesive atmosphere throughout the system cannot be understated in the development of one of the elite farms in baseball.

The fact that minor league coaches have been preaching the same gospel as Walt Weiss up to this point makes it especially easy to feel comfortable about a promotion from within. Even though the Rockies have waited until the World Series ended to make a hiring decision, AAA Manager Glenallen Hill remains a strong candidate. However, I am going to use this space to endorse the man they waited to interview in the first place. Dave Martinez may be behind the curve on Rockies team philosophy. But he excels in establishing philosophy’s overly-emotional cousin—culture.

Culture, like philosophy, is also necessary to coordinate throughout an organization. But in my humble opinion, culture is taken directly from the big-league club. Rick Renteria proved to be a good communicator with a solid background in developing young talent when he was at the helm of the Cubs clubhouse in 2014. Still, nothing he did inspired much confidence in the team. The same cannot be said about his replacement.

Between Joe Maddon’s calm, cool, and collected demeanor, and Dave Martinez’s youthful passion, every young gun felt like they could contribute to something special from the moment they hit the spring training fields. And yet, far into the postseason, many of the young players seemed to continue emulating the personality of their coaches.

No other team would be so comfortable putting in a rookie to try and close out the World Series. Sure, Carl Edwards Jr. succumbed to the pressure, forcing Joe to bring in Mike Montgomery. But for the first two batters of that inning, the magnitude of the moment didn’t matter. The culture, promoted by Joe and Dave, allowed Carl, and many other young talents, to play with confidence and embrace the target on their backs.

Last August, David Dahl made an appearance on MLB Central. In describing how the Rockies clubhouse was feeling about the prospect of facing Stephen Strasburg later that day, Dahl used the word “fun”. While the video I linked does not show the MLB Central team reacting to the interview afterwards, Bill Ripken said something along the lines of, “If I was hitting 3^rd in the order against one of the most dynamic arms in the game, I would never be having ‘fun'”. This reflects a major change in the game. Treating each day at the ballpark as business as usual is no longer the prevailing method.

Just as the Cubs coaching staff empowers its players to perform on the field, they also promoted an optimal locker room environment for the modern young athlete. Themed road trips and quirky dress codes headlined a series of ideas for bonding, motivating, or just getting away from it all. Sure, maybe most of these were Joe’s ideas. But Dave Martinez, after spending nine years under Joe’s tutelage, has the potential to be an outstanding player’s coach. His mere presence would go a long way in promoting a winning culture in the Rockies clubhouse.

The Value of Experience, Leadership, Familiarity, and All-Around Mental Makeup Is Unquantifiable

At least as far as we know. Theo has been known to make attempts at creating his own methods to measure seemingly qualitative traits. But the point remains—you can have all the analytical potential in the world, but you won’t win unless you place some sort of emphasis on these four principles.

Experience is what allowed the Cubs to find a cheap innings eater at the 2015 deadline. Dan Haren was not a sexy acquisition by any means. While everybody was expecting a blockbuster deal for Tyson Ross or Carlos Carrasco, Haren turned out to be more than serviceable, tossing a 4.01 ERA in 11 starts to close out his career. And they practically gave up nothing for him. The Rockies will need experience in their bullpen, as it is way too easy to get flustered on the mound at Coors. Otherwise, more and more games will slip away from the Rockies in the 7^th or later.

Leadership is what allowed the Cubs to bring in David Ross. Sure, his signing was primarily supposed to entice Jon Lester to follow suit, but the impact of Ross on the club stretches far beyond the box score. After all, if it were solely based on numbers, Ross would have been cut long ago.

We often hear about players that are essentially extensions of coaches on the field. Ross has been integral to the development of Willson Contreras behind the plate. In a survey of twenty players and coaches conducted by Dave Laurila of Fangraphs, seven people named Ross as the active (he was active at the time) player who would make the best manager. Ironically, Ross himself named Jonny Gomes as his choice. In fact, some are already speculating that Ross could be Dave Martinez’s replacement as bench coach.

Perhaps it’s easier to buy in on a concept when a peer is preaching it instead of the coach. Perhaps leadership within the ranks of the players helps prevent locker room dysfunction. Regardless, it would be wise for the Rockies to keep CarGo or Hundley around, because talent alone will not take the Rockies to the next level. There needs to be a player or two that can guide them along the way.

Familiarity is what allowed the Cubs to draft Kris Bryant over Jon Gray. Between Joe, Theo, General Manager Jed Hoyer, and Director of Amateur Scouting Jason McLeod the Cubs made several acquisitions of players they had previously worked with, including members on the 2016 squad in Anthony Rizzo, Jon Lester, David Ross, Jason Hammel, Ben Zobrist, and John Lackey. These were low-risk acquisitions in the eyes of the Cubs, simply because they knew what they could bring to the table.

If the Rockies are truly prepared to spend on pitching this offseason, they need to do their research. It’s not enough to think you know what you are getting. In free agency, the rate of return on investment is too low to take such a risk. They must know exactly what is coming their way. Maybe a return to Denver by Hammel or Matt Holliday could be in the works.

Mental makeup is what allowed the Cubs to take risks. Pitching Coach Chris Bosio may be considered one of the best at his job today, but many of the resurrection projects he has guided were not acquired from just scouting. Guys like Jake Arrieta, Scott Feldman, Paul Maholm, and Trevor Cahill were all willing to make changes, and both disciplined and motivated enough to put in the necessary work to make said changes.

Raw prospects, such as Jorge Soler, become worth the investment if you know they are going to put in the work, adapt, and just generally handle the day-to-day grind of a season. Kyle Schwarber came with concerns about his ability to stick at catcher. However, he wowed Theo and McLeod in his pre-draft interview, so much so that they drafted him with the intention of letting him catch. But most of all, the mental makeup of the 2016 Cubs was sound. Long gone are the days of Carlos Zambrano and Milton Bradley almost single-handedly tearing apart locker rooms. While there has been no indication to my knowledge of such issues within the Rockies organization, all it takes is one bad seed to ruin it for everyone else.

The Colorado Rockies are expected to turn the corner towards contention in the very near future. They certainly have the young talent to compete year after year. But if they want to take their game to the next level, they first need to ensure they have covered ALL their bases.