Gray not extended a qualifying offer and questions on Tapia, Rule 5 Draft and tanking

The Hot Stove Season turned on the flame following Sunday’s deadline for teams to extend a qualifying offers to impending free agents. 

While Trevor Story received the $18.4 million QO, Jon Gray did not get a qualifying offer, a choice that may come to haunt the organization much like the one to not re-sign DJ LeMahieu following the 2018 season. 

Story is all but assured to sign elsewhere and once he does, Colorado will receive either a pick before the Competitive Round A or Competitive Round B, depending on the size of his contract. If he signs for $50 million or more, the Rockies should get the 32nd overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, something they have been counting on since holding onto him at the trade deadline. 

If the contract is less than $50 million for the star shortstop, the compensation would be a draft pick somewhere in the 70s, much less than originally expected.

As for the situation with Gray, it’s similarly disappointing. Any outcome where the Rockies don’t bring back the highest draft pick in franchise history – which is not an impossibility – translates to getting nothing in return. Not any prospects. No selections in next year’s amateur draft. Not even a bucket of baseballs for one of the most valued players to ever come through their clubhouse.

On that upbeat note, let’s open the mailbag – MLBG, because we don’t like vowels – and check on the questions our members had about the Colorado Rockies, baseball and, in some instances, life. 

What players will the Rockies need to protect ahead of December’s Rule 5 Draft? Who could they get from another organization?

~Matt (Member #1256)

Players who signed at 18 years old or younger and have spent five years as a professional are subject to the Rule 5 Draft, lest they be on a club’s 40-man roster. Same is true of a 19-year-old after four years as a pro.

So, college selections from the 2018 MLB Draft will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft as are many high schoolers taken in 2017.

This means a large group within the farm system highlighted by players such as C Willie MacIver, SS Ezequiel Tovar, IF Coco Montes, IF Eddy Díaz, OF Jameson Hannah, OF Fadriel Cruz, RHP Jake Bird, LHP Nick Bush,  RHP Noah Davis, RHP Mitchell Kilkenny, RHP Shelby Lackey, LHP Ryan Rolison and LHP Reagan Todd.

Colorado has 33 players on the 40-man roster with three more that will be taken off the 60-day injured list to bring the total to 36. Though this means there’s only room for the addition of four players in that list above, some maneuvering could be done to create additional space.

Rolison and Tovar are locks to be protected with MacIver also considered as safe. After that, it’s anyone guess following a lost 2020 MiLB season that set back so many players’ projections. Montes has ability to play around the infield and has drawn comparisons to Garrett Hampson, so look for him to be a name going forward.

On the flip side, the Rockies haven’t done much in the Rule 5 Draft and typically don’t make a selection. They did incredibly well poaching Jordan Sheffield last year as only the second player to survive the full season with the club after Tommy Kahnle, another reliever, did so in 2014.

Until we see the list of players available from other teams later this month, it would be exercise in futility at this point. We’ll have more on that coming up.

In light of the recent video about Raimel Tapia made by Jolly Olive, would Colorado really release their left fielder like that? Is it more likely they’d trade him?

~Dan (Member #0312)

A recent video by baseball content creator Jolly Olive entitled “Raimel Tapia is the Best ‘Bad’ Player” made its rounds in the Rockies community this weekend.

During the 11-minute video, Tapia was commended for his similarities to three-time All-Star Luis Castillo of Florida Marlins and New York Mets fame despite several signs pointing to being one of the worst hitters in MLB.

Far from an indictment on Tapia or Colorado, the piece shows the paradox of a player failing to capitalize on potential and being a product of a foregone era since home runs (and launch angle) with the increased strikeout rates became the choice du jour.

With Tapia slated to make a projected $3.9 million in arbitration, it’s possible Colorado could cuts ties with the 27-year-old much like it did with David Dahl this time last year. Though Tapia has one less year of club control than Dahl in 2020 and could make over $1 million more, a trade seems more likely than outright release given the organizations better economic footing. Cutting payroll won’t be as big of a factor this offseason as it was the prior.

It seems like Peter Lambert, Ryan Feltner or Ryan Rolison could replace Jon Gray in the rotation. Am I missing anyone?

~Dom (#5322)

No. Not really.

Colorado hasn’t ever really had success in finding free agent pitchers – starters or relievers – but may need to shell out some cash on a one-year deal as an insurance policy while Lambert continues to rebound from Tommy John surgery and Rolison gets his first taste of the big leagues.

They could reach out to Chi Chi González for a fourth year in a row and rely on a rotating cast of fifth starters. If so, the usual suspects could get another chance. Feltner, Ashton Goudeau and Ryan Castellani could get first crack at it while Chris McMahon, Noah Davis, Karl Kauffman and Mitchell Kilkenny get more seasoning before a second-half promotion.

At this point, tear the whole thing down. The only thing that makes sense at this point is to fully embrace the tank.

~C (Member #9961) 

Well, that’s one conclusion to make.

Intentionally putting together a substandard squad for three-to-four years is certainly a strategy the Rockies have yet to attempt. They may have found the secret sauce to developing a starting rotation and with upcoming additions to GM Bill Schmidt’s analytics department, they may unlock another piece to the puzzle.

But tanking is a dangerous game. To alienate the fanbase in hopes of building championship half a decade down the line can be painful. There’s a lot of lost revenue in the process. Then again, Coors Field may be impervious to that.

The strategy of tanking has worked – to an extent – for most of the clubs that were committed to the process, but Colorado is a traditional organization that has never liked the idea of bringing in mercenaries. (This exact word has been used before to describe players that aren’t homegrown.)

Some day, if the upcoming collective bargaining agreement doesn’t ensure of its demise, tanking may be required to bring a consistent winner to Denver. It just isn’t going to happen right now.

Some questions were carefully edited for purposes of brevity and clarity.