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Grading the draft classes in the AFC West

Andre Simone Avatar
April 30, 2018

With the 2018 NFL Draft now wrapped up, it’s time to put things into context with our AFC West grades. 

While a draft class can’t truly be graded until a few years have passed—the real grades are given out when these players are signed to long-term, lucrative deals in four to five years—to put things into context, it’s a fun exercise to do.

We’re going off of our pre-draft rankings here, which were based on a year’s worth of watching tape, live scouting reports, and trips to the Senior Bowl and NFL Combine numbers—among other things.

The grades below are based on the value each team got out of their class, specifically based on where they were picking. If you had lots of picks at the top of the draft, you were expected to do better than a team without many picks.

Aside from value, we’re also taking into account the fit a prospect has in the system they were draft in and the needs each team was able to address. 

Beyond all that, we’re also breaking down our favorite picks and the riskiest selection each team made. 

After grading the three picks the division made in round one, it’s time to tie a bow on the entire draft for the four teams out west. 

DENVER BRONCOS: B+

Value grade: B (two players in top 50, seven in top 175)

Need and Fit Grade: A

The Broncos draft followed a few very specific themes. For one, they went with safe picks, deciding to not take many big swings, instead, opting for proven college production and high-character players.

John Elway and his crew want to try and win sooner rather than later, and with this class, they got lots of proven entities who should be able to contribute immediately. The high-upside prospects that can pay-off in a big way, were taken a year ago. This year, Denver wanted to go on the safe side, and with ten picks, they did a good job of that.

It’s clear after the first two days of the draft, that the Broncos also put an emphasis on bigger players who brought a physical element to their position. Starting with Bradley Chubb, all four of their first three round selections are big guys who are going to overpower their competition. Which is an interesting turn, since the organization has valued athleticism and combine production more in the past. 

So while this class might be lacking a bit in premium players, with only two selections in our top-50, just about everyone was a worthy draft choice who profiles to be a low-end starter or high-level backup at the very least. It’s an interesting strategy.

As far as filling needs, the Broncos addressed every need they had meticulously. They added more depth at running back, receiver, tight end and linebacker. It would’ve been nice to see an offensive lineman drafted higher, but there was depth on the interior, and they decided to pounce by day three in taking Sam Jones.

As far as fitting in Denver’s system, the wide receivers are interesting, as are the two linebackers they took, who aren’t automatic three down defenders as of now. Aside from that, the Broncos did a good job addressing their primary needs and adding players who will fit into their style of football.

It’s worth mentioning that the Broncos cleaned up in the early portion of the undrafted free agency signings, as well. Not only signing local stud Phillip Lindsay, who’ll be an excellent addition to the running back group, but also adding depth to their edge rushers with Jeff Holland, and more muscles to the interior of the defense with Lowell Lotulelei. They had by far the best signings of the entire AFC West with those three alone, which raises the grade just a bit. 

The Broncos might’ve found 13 rookies who’ll be on the roster in the foreseeable future, with at least a couple who should start right away. When you’re drafting in the top five, that’s what you have to do.

It was a good draft even if it lacked fireworks after the first couple rounds. 

RISKIEST PICK

Courtland Sutton gets the nod here, not because he wasn’t worthy of a high second-round pick—he could’ve easily gone in round one—but because there’s some projection to his selection.

Sutton is a workout warrior who dominated the AAC, but his struggles in creating separation are concerning. He compares some to Case Keenum’s former teammate Laquon Treadwell on tape, who’s yet to justify his first-round pick back in 2016.

Treadwell never tested the way Sutton has, and maybe the better comparison here is JuJu Smith-Schuster. Receivers who need work on their route running and struggled to separate in college are always hard to project, and Sutton certainly falls into that camp. With seventh-rounder David Williams, Sutton’s one of two upside picks who could pay off in a big way, but there’s some risk there too.

Keenum’s receiving core with the Minnesota Vikings was built around precise route runners, we’ll have to see how quickly Sutton can become that. His fit in Denver as a third receiver will be interesting, as well, and he might just be a long-term replacement for Demaryius Thomas, who’s now 30 and would allow the organization to save a lot of money next offseason.

BEST PICK

This is Chubb without a doubt, who we had ranked as the top edge rusher in the class and our fifth overall prospect. His fit in a 3-4 will be interesting, but he’s shown all the traits on tape to fit in just fine as a pass-rushing outside linebacker who can be used with his hand in the ground in sub packages.

Had he gone to a team like the Indianapolis Colts, where he’d have to be the primary pass rusher, his selection would’ve been riskier, but in Denver, opposite Von Miller, he’s a spectacular pick. He seemed bound to go in the top four, and the Broncos were lucky to have him fall into their laps. He should be the front-runner for defensive rookie of the year in 2018

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: C+

Value grade: C+ (three in the top 110)

Need and Fit Grade: C+

This draft for KC, like the last one, is all about Patrick Mahomes, who they had to move up a year ago to take and made it so they didn’t have a first-round selection in this draft.

The Chiefs addressed some definite need areas on their defense but didn’t get significantly better with this draft. 

With fewer picks, after trading up in the second round, they had to neglect a few needs on the offensive line and at cornerback. 

The fit of defensive end Breeland Speaks, their first pick as an outside edge rusher, is interesting as he’s big and will need to adjust to playing in more of a stand-up role. After that, they found some good value with safety Armani Watts and defensive lineman Derrick Nnadi.

As long as Mahomes has a good season, and his drop off from Alex Smith isn’t noticeable, this will be a good draft with solid contributors. Otherwise, this class won’t have done enough to raise their defensive talent and make up for that drop-off at QB.

RISKIEST PICK

Speaks gets the award here, as they took him over other more natural outside linebackers with greater upside—Lorenzo Carter comes to mind. Speaks is a one-year wonder who bases his game around his motor and power.

He’ll be a strong run defender and will be able to do some things when rushing the passer on third down, but he seemed to be a bit of a reach.

BEST PICK

Dorian O’Daniel fits a huge need for the Chiefs at inside linebacker, and though he’s not a workout warrior, he plays fast and aggressive. He might be a starter soon for them and was had at a great value.

The selections of Nnadi and O’Daniel were by far their best picks—we wrote about the Clemson linebacker in our position preview. 

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: A

Value grade: A+ (two in top 50, four in top 110)

Need and Fit Grade: A-

The Chargers did a phenomenal job at the top of the draft, adding three really intriguing prospects at positions of need. This was maybe my favorite draft of any in the entire NFL. The Bolts simply did a nice job of combining upside with fit and still going with safer picks. 

They added a tone-setting safety in Derwin James, who has some nice versatility as well. Then selected Uchenna Nwosu, who can play some as an inside linebacker or at worst gives them the speed rusher in their rotation that Jeremiah Attaochu—a former second-round pick—was never able to give them.

With defensive tackle Justin Jones, they added a talented interior rusher who can really help their defensive front up the middle. With those picks alone they dominated the draft. They did a good job adding a few other serviceable pieces later on, too. They could’ve added more help at offensive tackle, but regardless, they had a really successful draft.

If the early selections on the defensive side pay off the way we think they will, the Bolts might just be the new front-runners to win the West—if they can avoid losing games in the final moments… again. 

RISKIEST PICK

Scott Quessenberry is a risky pick for anyone who’s watched Josh Rosen tape and saw how much the Bruins struggled in pass protection the last couple years. Quessenberry was a big part of that, and I don’t see the value in this pick.

Nwosu’s fit at inside linebacker—one of their most pressing needs—is also a bit risky, but the downside with him is much lower since he can be added to their rotation on the edge. Quessenberry, on the other hand, is a pretty big gamble in a deep guard class that had safer prospects still available.

BEST PICK

To avoid waxing poetic about the James pick again, let’s give this to Justin Jones, who—in that defensive front—can be a beast. Jones, who’s Bradley Chubb’s former teammate, is already used to getting less of the attention and roaming backfields. 

With his addition, the Chargers defensive line is truly scary. 

OAKLAND RAIDERS: C

Value grade: C (two in top 50, four in top 150)

Need and Fit Grade: B-

If the Broncos organizational philosophy was to go after proven, safe prospects, the Raiders went the complete opposite way. It seems as if Jon Gruden’s channeling his inner Al Davis here. 

All of Oakland’s selections in the first two days of the draft can be labeled as boom-or-bust picks, and while that comes with significant upside, it also has a lot of downside.

Aside from Kolton Miller, who we wrote about in our first-round grades, FCS product P.J. Hall comes with some risk, and the selection of tackle Brandon Parker, was simply bad that early. Offensive line coach Tom Cable will have to really earn his paycheck to get Miller and Parker to be serviceable pros. Hall, who plays defensive tackle, was taken at a position that they’ve tried to patch up for several drafts now. 

After the first two days, they seemed to get some better value, touching up need areas, but their strategy in the first three rounds could prove to be very costly. 

Especially Miller, who’ll likely start at right tackle, could really struggle in a division made up of elite pass rushers who all rush primarily from the strong side.

RISKIEST PICK

Arden Key might be their best pick, but he’s also the riskiest. If they’re going off of what Key did in 2016, this is a slam-dunk selection, but questions about his commitment to the game, added to issues he’s had with injuries and his fluctuating weight in 2017, can’t be ignored. 

If he pans out, he could be a nightmare for the rest of the division opposite Khalil Mack, but he could also be out of the league in a few years. 

Given how inconsistently Oakland’s dealt with colorful personalities this offseason, it’s worth wondering if the Raiders are the right team for him to succeed on. 

BEST PICK

Nick Nelson would’ve been a really nice value where they got him, but he tore his meniscus working out before the draft, so he won’t be able to contribute immediately, which is a big problem.  At this point, the best pick is receiver Marcell Ateman, who gives them a big contested-ball target, though, his issues in creating separation are pretty noticeable

Maurice Hurst deserves an honorable mention here, though, given his heart condition, that had many teams concerned, it’s a bit of an unknown how he’ll be able to succeed in the NFL. Just another risky pick for Oakland in a pretty crazy draft.

The answer might be no one.

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