NFL betting is the best but this is also an unusual week with lots of huge spreads and very few home dogs to pick from. That makes this week unique, especially the four spreads over 9.5 points are pretty rare to see all in the same slate. Add that to two games that still don’t have lines with quarterback injuries, and once again Week 6 seems to have traps at every turn.

Week 5 wasn’t as wild, though I proved that I simply can’t get out of the .500 dredges as my picks again went 2-and-2. Our metrics did much better as YPP went 7-and-4 while our EW spreads went 6-and-4, yet another week of winning from our numbers going straight up against the spread.

With all that going on, we’ve offered up two home dogs that’ll make your eyebrow raise but see both our metrics in agreement, plus three more EW picks.

As always on top of our picks, you’ll see the chart with our estimated spreads for both metrics below.

Enjoy.

Our consensus home dogs of the week

New York Jets +9.5 versus the New England Patriots

Yes, we know this is gutsy and seems stupid on the surface. But have you seen the Patriots defense? 9.5 points to this team is too much, regardless of how you may feel about the legitimacy of the Jets’ 3-2 record.

A year ago when the two teams played each other in East Rutherford, New Jersey the home team played the Pats close losing by 6 points. The year prior in 2015, they split the series winning at home and losing by a touchdown in Foxborough. So there’s a precedent here for the Jets playing New England closer than anticipated under Todd Bowles.

That was also against much tougher Patriot defenses, not this unit that ranks dead last in YYP allowed with an astonishing 6.9 figure. While the offense has been productive, it’s also very reliant on Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski who are both dealing with minor injuries. Likely limiting the chances of this being a blowout.

Sure the Jets figures are skewed some with the opponents they’ve beaten so far, but they’ve also shown themselves to be fairly competitive. Against a Patriots team full of imperfections that have been in nothing but close games the last three weeks (after being blown out Week 1 and then winning by 16 points against the New Orleans Saints), we’re riding with Todd Bowles who’s remarkably turned this team around in the last three weeks.

Minnesota Vikings +3 versus the Green Bay Packers

The scary thing here is Aaron Rodgers who last week proved, once again, that he’s a phenom when it comes to making plays in crunch time. Aside from Rodgers, the Vikings are also missing Dalvin Cook and are now down Sam Bradford as well.

Thing is, Rodgers helps hide a lot of the limitations on this Pack team, one that’s allowing lots of points defensively and is completely reliant on its star quarterback offensively. This is a big reason why sometimes they’ll lose games you don’t expect, like in Week 2 of 2016 when Green Bay played at Minnesota and lost 17-14.

The Vikings have a great defense with a superb coach behind them and that’s what makes them still a viable team despite all the struggles on the other side of the ball. It’s also why their YPP stats are better at the moment then Green Bay’s favoring them by -6 points.

EW picks of the week 

Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 versus the Los Angeles Rams

We have a conflict in metrics here as YPP favors the Rams slightly but EW is firmly in the Jaguars camp by a whopping -8 points. All that meaning this should prove to be a fork in the road type test for both teams, hopefully giving us some clarity on the two squads going forward.

What makes the Jags appealing is their defense that could really create problems for a talented but young Rams offense led by quarterback Jared Goff who’ll have to really limit turnovers and play a clean game.

Of course, the big concern with the Jaguars is their quarterback, giving them a one-dimensional offense. But here’s the good news; the Rams have struggled to stop the run and are 27th in rushing yards allowed. When facing rookie sensation Leonard Fournette, that could be a problem. Ultimately, the defensive advantage, home-field, and advantageous matchup make the Jags a really appealing bet here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 at the Arizona Cardinals

Oddly YPP is not on board with this game as the Cards are again decently ranked by the metric. Tampa’s been hard to figure out, and understandably so with their issues to start off the season. That’s also a reason to believe they’ll begin to turn things around soon and the defense is already showing good signs especially against the run where they’re a top-five unit.

The Cardinals on their end just look awful. They’ve won two games against the league’s two cellar dwellers in the San Francisco 49ers and Indianapolis Colts. In the other three games they’ve played they’ve lost fairly easily showing lots of issues offensively.

The Buccaneers are good enough defensively to give their offense enough of a head start to pull this off. The Cards are as bad a team as there is in the NFL right now and -1.5 points is too intriguing to pass up.

Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 versus the Pittsburgh Steelers

Here’s another line where it seems like you have a veteran team getting more respect than it deserves in the Steelers – or maybe Vegas is just listening to YPP on this one.

The Chiefs have just looked so explosive offensively this season and it’s shown statistically where they’re the top unit per YPP and have outscored opponents by 53 points in the first five games. Pittsburgh’s only outscored opponents by 10.

That’s the crux of this, with how the Chiefs are playing offensively unless you have a special defense you’re going to have to put up points. As incredible as it is to say, the Steelers once potent offense has sputtered as of late and the unit’s stars simply aren’t showing up right now.

The Steelers also haven’t been tested by a team anywhere close to the form that KC’s in right now. That’s partially why YPP concerns us less because the schedule for Pitt’s not been impressive.

As long as the Chiefs are under a touchdown right now they’re worth jumping on, especially at Arrowhead. Our EW spread has them favored by -8.5 which seems much more realistic given the form both teams have shown in the first quarter of the NFL year.

BSN ATS’ YPP & EW Week 6 lines

Teams	Current Spread	YPP #	Advantage	Home Field	YPP Suggested Spread	YPP Differential	EW Suggested Spread	EW Differential
CLE		-0.2	-1			7
@HOU	-9.5	-0.3	-1.5	3	-2.5		-13	3.5
NE	-9.5	-0.7	-3.5		Even		-2
@NYJ		-0.1	-0.5	3	Even	9.5		7.5
MIA		-1.2	-6
@ATL	-12.5	1.2	6	3.5	-15.5	3	-14.5	2
DET		-0.8	-4					2.5
@NO	-4.5	-0.2	-1	3	-6	1.5	-2
GB	-3	0	0				Even
@MIN		0.6	3	3	-6	9	Even	3
CHI		-0.2	-1			5
@BAL	-6.5	-0.6	-3	3.5	-1.5		-10.5	4
SF		-0.3	-1.5			3		3
@WSH	-11	0.7	3.5	3	-8		-8
LAR		0.8	4		Even	2.5
@JAX	-2.5	0.2	1	3	Even		-8	5.5
TB	-1.5	0.2	1				-5	3.5
@AZ		-0.1	-0.5	3	-1.5	3
PIT		0.5	2.5
@KC	-4.5	0.8	4	3.5	-5	0.5	-8.5	4
LAC		0.3	1.5		-1.5
@OAK		-0.6	-3	3			-6
NYG		-0.2	-1			3.5
@DEN	-11.5	0.7	3.5	3.5	-8		-15.5	4
IND		-1.2	-6
@TEN		0.1	0.5	3	-9.5		-6