Gerardo Parra should rebound well in 2017

Prior to the 2016 season, Colorado Rockies General Manager Jeff Bridich signed outfielder Gerardo Parra to a three-year, 27.5 million dollar contract. It was an eyebrow-raiser at the time and that was only magnified as he went on to post the worst season of his MLB career.

Though there was a time early in the season in which Parra was leading the National League in doubles — and he finished with a decent 27 in that category and seven home runs — the rest of his offensive profile was completely bare. He hit only .253 and worse yet, drew only nine walks on the year. Nine. That equated out to a .271 on-base percentage and an abysmal 56 wRC+.

Further, statistics over at Fangraphs that used to rank him as a plus defender, including an elite season in 2013, also turned negative for the second year in a row. All told, his fWAR of -1.8 was by far the lowest mark of his career, the next lowest a 0.1 in 2014.

But Parra still has yet to turn 30, and the same statisticians who would rightfully argue that we should expect regression from players like Charlie Blackmon and DJ LeMahieu coming off career years, are bound by logic to concede that Parra should be expected to have positive regression for the same reason.

It’s incredibly unlikely that Parra is ever the 4.5 fWAR player he was in 2013 again, but what is just as unlikely is that his walk rate remains at two percent when it has hovered around six for most of his career. Similarly, an not necessarily unrelatedly, his batting average will almost certainly rise back toward his career mark of .274.

Of course, Parra almost certainly won’t be asked to do the same job he was a year ago. With David Dahl in the mix, Parra’s playing time will be limited. This should be much to his benefit, being deployed only in the more favorable situations to him. Though, it’s a double-edged sword because a potential move into primarily serving as a pinch-hitter could throw off his rhythm. Being left handed means he also isn’t a natural platoon, so spot starts could and probably should be few and far between.

What Parra can help with if he manages to have a better season is late-game pinch-hitting and even pinch running. Dealing with a leg injury after a nasty collision with Trevor Story, Parra was limited to just six steals last year, but most seasons tends to reach double digits.

It’s also worth mentioning again that Parra is loved in the clubhouse while simultaneously being able to set a fun but hard-working tone. An injury to a starter could push him into a bigger role, but Parra can still be of great value to the club as a fourth outfielder, a position his resume suggests he is slightly overqualified for. The fact that he is still due 18 million dollars over the next two years makes that designation difficult to swallow for Rockies fans, but the absurd number of players on the 25-man roster who are still on their rookie contracts — and the fact that Dick Monfort clearly didn’t let this deal stop them from acquiring Ian Desmond or Greg Holland — renders that mostly moot.

The one exception to this comes on the market. Given the solid starting lineup in the outfield and the existence of Raimel Tapia and Jordan Patterson, the Rockies would likely shed that contract given the chance, but Parra’s poor play a season ago makes that hard. This is why you might see Parra take the field a bit more than you might have expected early in 2017.

If baseball history holds and the 29-year-old is closer to his career average than his career worst, he could easily play himself into more value for the Rockies on the trade market. Other teams just need to see that he still has it.

He could end up being traded, though the Rockies would likely still have to eat most of the contract, or he could play the year out in Colorado providing a veteran presence for a young team, but either way, Gerardo Parra is just statistically very likely to be a better ballplayer in 2017 than he was in 2016.