George Paton’s high-upside draft picks are calculated

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — George Paton’s first two picks as general manger of the Denver Broncos fell right in line with the philosophy his predecessor John Elway adopted over the last few years.

Patrick Surtain II and Javonte Williams weren’t just top talents, but they had produced at a very high level, were well-known prospects and had tremendous pedigree off the field as well as on.

However, Paton steered away from part of Elway’s philosophy as the draft carried on. While not losing sight of prospect’s character traits, Paton veered away from established prospects with tremendous amounts of experience and higher floors, to prospects rich in talent, but more unknown.

After landing the star running back in the second round, Paton’s next four picks all fit the high-reward gamble.

In fact, the Broncos didn’t even have set positions for their two third-round picks at the time they drafted them. The team liked their potential that much.

Linebacker Baron Browning out of Ohio State has all of the physical tools needed to dominate on the defensive side of the ball with a 6-foot-3, 245-pound frame to go along with 4.51 40 speed.

“Good athlete, runs really well. He’s got versatility,” Vic Fangio said on Friday night after the team grabbed him with the 105th-overall pick. “We’ll figure out where we’re going to put him first and see how he does there then make a final decision at some point. We like his speed, like his athleticism.”

The tools are in the toolshed for the versatile linebacker just as they are for Denver’s other third-round pick Quinn Meinerz out of Wisconsin-Whitewater.

At 6-foot-3, 320 pounds, Meinerz is the prime example of Denver landing a very talented player with high upside at the expense of experience. Meinerz didn’t even play a single snap of football in 2020 as his Division III season was canceled due to COVID-19. Instead, he trained for the NFL on a remote island in Ontario, Canada at his family’s hunting and fishing camp.

“The challenge is obviously that they didn’t have football this year at Whitewater,” Paton said, explaining how he evaluated the interior offensive lineman. “We had to go back two years ago when he was 20 pounds heavier, he had a neck roll and he kind of looked like a hunchback on tape. He dominated the competition, but the competition was around Vic’s size. It was hard to evaluate until we went to the Senior Bowl. He lost 20 pounds, he was in shape and he fared well against elite competition.”

On Saturday, to start Day 3, the Broncos continued their pursuit of finding high-upside talent. This time, they hit the same position on back-to-back picks.

With their first fifth-round pick, Denver selected safety Caden Sterns out of Texans. Sterns was a five-star prospect out of high school and the No. 1 recruit in the state of Texas. As a freshman in Burnt Orange, Sterns had a monster year, being named Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year and earning First-team All-Big 12 honors with four interceptions.

However, his sophomore and junior year he took a step back due to multiple injuries. But the Broncos saw the talent he displayed in high school and his freshman year at Texas.

With their next fifth-round pick, No. 164, Denver selected safety Jamar Johnson out of Indiana. Last year was the only year the 6-foot, 205-pound safety was a full-time starter in college. But in that year, he showed off his “ballhawk” mentality, as he called it, leading the team with four interceptions. That earned him Second-team All-Big Ten honors.

“See ball, get ball,” he simply said, explaining his mindset to the Denver media minutes after being selected by the Broncos.

According to Pro Football Focus, since 2019, opposing quarterbacks have a 31.7 passer rating when targeting the shutdown safety, which is the best among all draft-eligible safeties.

“His high football IQ should aid his transition to pro football as a future starter with a strong upside,” NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein said, hitting on Johnson’s high upside.

Paton isn’t just taking a chance on high-upside players, he’s getting them at the best positions to learn in Denver. All four players are set up in a fantastic position to achieve their potential.

On defense, Browning will get to learn under head coach Vic Fangio. Before Fangio was Denver’s head coach, he was often referred to as one of the best defensive coordinators in the game. Before that, he was known as one of the best linebacker coaches to ever be in the NFL as he was the leader of the Saints’ feared “Dome Patrol” linebacking corps, which included four Pro Bowl linebackers.

Sterns and Johnson will get to watch and learn first-hand from the NFL’s best safety duo of Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson.

“I look up to Justin Simmons and I watch his film all the time,” Sterns said after being drafted by the Broncos. “To be able to learn from him is going to mean a lot. “He’s a good player and I literally watch him all the time. He’s somebody that I try to model my game after. I’m blessed to be able to have somebody in front of me like that to be a mentor to me.”

Johnson echoed his new teammate’s sentiment.

“I’ve always watched their games, especially Justin Simmons,” the newest Bronco stated. “He is one of my favorites. I’m just going to go in there and learn from those guys as much as I can—take notes and one day hopefully be in their position. It’s exciting to have those two guys. Justin just got [re-signed] and Kareem Jackson is from [Georgia]. It’s a dream come true—a blessing.”

On the other side of the ball, Meinerz will get to learn from one of the best, if not the best, offensive line coaches in NFL history and Hall-of-Famer Mike Munchak. Not too shabby of a situation for any of the four picks.

Paton isn’t just trusting his talent evaluators with these picks. He’s trusting the entire Broncos organization to tap into the immense talent that he’s bringing to Denver in 2021.