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Friday On The Rox: Three-man, Four-man, Five-man, Six-man rotations

Jake Shapiro Avatar
Jake Shapiro
December 4, 2015
New York Mets v Colorado Rockies

 

Baseball’s first sabermetrician Bill James published a new, perhaps revolutionary idea on is website recently. The idea, a three-man starting rotation. Yes, it’s a bit crazy, and most likely will never happen, but I’ll let James explain.

Suppose that a team used a three-man starting rotation, but limited each pitcher to 80 pitches a start or five innings.   (This actually would work with 90 pitches a start, but 80 is more conservative, so I’m going to use 80 as a working premise.)  Anyway, a starting pitcher always and absolutely comes out of the game as soon as

1) He has pitched five innings, or

2)  He has thrown 80 pitches.

No exceptions.   Eighty pitches, it’s the fifth inning, you’re ahead 9-0 and you have two outs and two strikes on the hitter. ..tough luck, Sally, you should have thrown more strikes earlier in the game.

James then examines why we have five-man rotations in the first place. He breaks down the thought process of the bonuses of injury prevention and effectiveness of a five-man rotation. He then tries to convince the reader that the same if not more benefits could be added with a three-man rotation

But I am not arguing here for a return to pitchers pitching 300 innings in a season.   I’m arguing for a change in pattern that would put the top limit at about 245 innings in a season—actually not that far from where it is now.

But here’s the thing:  starting pitchers would be pitching a few more innings, but in a pattern that reduces the stress load associated with those pitches.  

You can read James’ full work here, on his website. There were also two good reactionary pieces put out by Rob Neyer and David Schoenfield which I will link to in our “links.”

Why this is most interesting to me is because I have been a huge proponent of Ken Funk’s SOMA and four-man rotations. If you are unfamiliar with Funk’s idea it is, “shorter Outings, More Appearances. Under SOMA, starters would be paired up to pitch every third day, tossing 3-4 innings each per game. After accounting for off days, SOMA would allow a team’s best starters to appear in around 60 games and rack up 200-240 innings per season—similar to their current workloads—with minimal impact on bullpen usage.”

Does that sound familiar Rockies fans? Yes, it is exactly like the Rockies 2012 mid-season experiment “Project 5183.” I think this can work because as Funk also explains, The Book: Playing The Percentages in Baseball, notes “decreased effectiveness starting pitchers exhibit during each successive spin through an opposing lineup.” Ideally a team would have starters throw only two times through the lineup and then use a long reliever to get through the order once in a “piggyback” role. Finally, a team would use its bullpen as it normally would to finish the game.

The current five-man rotation has been in use almost continuously by every single team since 1980. At this point with injuries increasing among pitchers and a more numbers-minded view of bullpen matchups it seems the five-man rotation idea needs to be revamped.

Where a lot of people think baseball will evolve to is a six-man rotation. It is already used in many Asian leagues and the Mets tried it out for a little while this year. Quickly thinking about it, it might reduce fatigue and in turn injuries to pitch your starters 18% less. However, there has been no found coloration between the two or even increased efficientness.

On JABO.com former MLB pitcher, CJ Nitkowski wrote about the six-man rotation a while back.

The Positives

  • A full season of a six-man rotation would drop games started for a full-time starter to 26-27 over the current 33-34. Six or seven less starts means anywhere from 35-50 less innings.
  • Less starts over the course of the season theoretically means top starters should be stronger for the postseason. Last postseason we saw Clayton Kershaw run out of gas late in both of his NLDS starts, allowing a combined nine runs in the seventh inning of both games. In 2013, Kershaw threw 259 innings over 37 combined starts in the regular and postseason.
  • The five days off between starts (sometimes six) means more recovery time. This should mean stronger, healthier pitchers.
  • With long-term deals for pitchers almost never working out by the end of the term, the odds of a team getting a stronger long-term return on their big investments should increase.
  • Pitching is deeper than ever and some teams (not all) have the depth to use six starters.

The Negatives

  • If I’m paying a starting pitcher north of $20 million per season, do I really want to use him 18 to 20 percent less than I am now?
  • You need your top starters to win a division or secure a wild card spot. Falling a game or two short knowing you could have thrown your ace a few more times that season would be tough to swallow.
  • Asking pitchers to change their routines and sit around an extra day is not an easy sell. Pitchers are creatures of habit, and some hate the extra day of rest due to something like a team off day, a rain out or the All-Star break. Not all would resist, but many would.

In researching this idea I assumed the performance numbers would support the concept. They don’t. Take a look at this MLB starting pitcher data from 2010-2014 via Stats, Inc.

Days rest Starts ERA BAA CG % IP/GS
4 11,855 4.00 .259 3% 6.0
5 8,021 4.04 .259 3% 6.0
6+ 4,073 4.15 .261 1% 5.2

Nitkowski’s research above states there are no real benefits that we know of yet to make a six-man rotation a game-changing innovation.

MLB.com columnist Terance Gore also agrees with Nitkowski.

 

Here’s the biggest point: Six-man rotations aren’t good.

They ruin the timing of starting pitchers who normally rest four days between starts. They don’t allow your ace to pitch as often as he normally would. They cause issues with your bullpen. They force you to choose between playing with either one less reliever or one guy on the bench. And, for all we know, they could be the reason for that hole in the ozone.

So where will rotations go next? I’d have to say a team will be more willing to use a six-man rotation rather than a four-man, no matter how much the number crunchers will advise otherwise.

From a Rockies perspective, they have the problem of trying to figure out Coors Field and their home and road splits. Well, Mike Petriello. Using the idea of platoon starters for the Rockies. I.E. Jorge De La Rosa would only start at home.

Optimize the starters at either extreme. That starts with de la Rosa, obviously, who has performed like no one else in Coors Field. This has two benefits, because it’s not just about giving more Denver innings to de la Rosa; it’s about taking road innings, where he’s been mediocre, away. Over the last two years, de la Rosa has thrown 172.1 innings at home, and 179.2 on the road. That’s what you’d expect on a “regular” rotation; it’s also not an efficient use of his time, at least if you believe in his “skill.”

This is a really interesting take, it also will probably never happen, but it’s an interesting thought. Should the Rockies try to do something drastic with their rotation, or would they just be making more excuses for themselves? I don’t think we can answer that question until the Rockies let their current crop of young pitchers try to figure it out. They have never had more talent on the mound than they will have in the next three-plus years. If these next few years don’t work out for Rockies starters I believe the franchise will need to completely reevaluate.

Notes:

Links:

JABO.com / Rob Neyer // THE 3-MAN ROTATION? IT’S COMING … SOMETIME

Neyer can imagine a baseball world that uses three-man rotations 20 years from now. He also adjusts James’ idea and adds his own touch.

ESPN / David Schoenfield // The three-man rotation could be the future of baseball

Schoenfield has his doubts mentioning one reader’s point of, “the notion here is that if you reduce starters’ pitch count by 14%, you can increase their frequency of starts by about 65% — with no loss of effectiveness. I’m sorry, but that just seems wildly improbable.”

Denver Post / Nick Groke // How much money are the Rockies working with headed to MLB’s winter meetings?

The Rockies have about 70 million dollars committed to the 2016 team with more dollars pending on arbitration cases. Groke estimates how much money the Rockies have to spend going into next week’s Winter Meetings.

Sportslogos.net / Chris Creamer // Baseball Uniforms Evolve With Unveiling of New D-Backs Set

The Rockies division foe Diamondbacks released new uniforms last night and they are…. atrocious. At long last the Rockies won’t have the worst uniforms in the NL West.

The Hardball Times /  Joon Lee // The Most Fun, Shareable Moments of 2015

WARNING, you might laugh at a few of these.

Twitter’s Best:

https://twitter.com/purpledinocast/status/672626243209191424

https://twitter.com/SamMillerBP/status/671830931414519808

Top Tweet:

https://twitter.com/TomduhB/status/671449597194182656

Music for the weekend: William Onyeabor is a huge figure in the history of Nigeran music. In fact, some consdier him the father of Nigeran electroinc Afro-funk, but almost nothing is known about him. Noisey tried to answer the question Who is William Onyeabor?

This song shows Onyeabor’s skill on the synthesiser, it’s a great song that was way ahead of it’s time. In fact, TIME named this record one of the ten best of 2013.

 

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